Tuesday, October 24, 2006

The moving target of Nov. 7

Predicting who is going to win the upcoming election is a bit of a fool's game. But here are two interesting and slightly contradictory factors.

On the Democrat side of the ledger, the GOP's effort to lure minority voters appears to be in jeopardy.

A major effort to draw Latinos and blacks into the Republican Party, a central element of the GOP plan to build a long-lasting majority, is in danger of collapse amid anger over the immigration debate and claims that Republican leaders have not delivered on promises to direct more money to church-based social services.

President Bush, strategist Karl Rove and other top Republicans have wooed Latino and black leaders, many of them evangelical clergy who lead large congregations, in hopes of peeling away the traditional Democratic base. But now some of the leaders who helped Bush win in 2004 are revisiting their loyalty to the Republican Party and, in some cases, abandoning it.

This has been a major and, I believe, sincere push by Ken Mehlman at the RNC, with some help from the White House. But he's been frustrated by members of his own party, particularly by the border-fence bill.

Separately, Dick Morris is claiming that recent polls show GOP candidates closing the gap on their Democratic rivals. Take that with a grain of salt, because it's Dick Morris and he's relying in part on what he says are internal candidate polls.

More tangible is the GOP advantage in cash and get-out-the-vote organization. As the link explains, the effect of the last is hard to gauge. But it's worth noting that Howard Dean's "50 state" project is in part an emulation of the GOP, trying to build effective grass-roots organizations all across the country both to improve Democratic turnout and force the GOP to spend money defending seats they currently take for granted.

A lot of moving parts. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.



Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard a Bush spokesman say that the administration is not even preparing for the possibility of a Democrat House or Senate. Such mind-numbing arrogance is another reason why they need to be put in check.
I also heard Karl Rove in an interview on NPR professing that he is certain Reps will hold on to both chambers, that he has "inside" polls not available to the public which support this notion. And by the way, his arrogance flowed like a polluted river.

So please tell me that Karl Rove is wrong about his absolute certainty and those "inside" polls, because that interview left me feeling sick for a while.
- Caracarn

10/25/2006 12:08 PM  
Blogger Sean Aqui said...

It's Rove's and Bush's job to exude optimism. I'll hunt up the link, but I recently read an article that pointed out Rove's past predictions have all turned out to be overoptimistic.

Take him with a grain of salt. Or ignore him and wait until Nov. 7.

10/25/2006 2:42 PM  

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