The New York Times has produced a nice primer on the strengths and weaknesses of polls, and how to read them with a skeptical eye in order to draw insights while rejecting spurious data.
The main lessons: Look at the size and makeup of the sample and how it was selected; beware of attributing much significance to subsamples, most of which are too small to be valid; know what "margin of error" means; and look at how the questions were phrased.
As well roll into the election season, you will hear myriad polls quoted supporting one side or the other. A good rule of thumb is to treat polls the way you should treat horoscopes: "for entertainment purposes only." But if you want to take them seriously, do your homework first.
polls, politics, midtopia
Monday, August 28, 2006
Polls and a grain of salt
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2 comments:
The order of the questions, seldom revealed, can also influence the results.
Agreed. But most reputable polls release the questions exactly as asked. It annoys me when poll stories don't link to the poll itself; but you can find the details pretty easily on the Web.
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