Midtopia

Midtopia

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Do any generals actually support Rumsfeld?

Another recently retired general says Donald Rumsfeld has to go.

The retired commander of key forces in Iraq called yesterday for Donald H. Rumsfeld to step down, joining several other former top military commanders who have harshly criticized the secretary of defense's authoritarian style for making the military's job more difficult.

"I think we need a fresh start" at the top of the Pentagon, retired Army Maj. Gen. John Batiste, who commanded the 1st Infantry Division in Iraq in 2004-05, said in an interview. "We need leadership up there that respects the military as they expect the military to respect them. And that leadership needs to understand teamwork."

He joins retired Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, Army Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton and Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni all of whom have spoken out against Rumsfeld in recent weeks. You could add to that list William Odom and Wesley Clark, as well as criticisms from the likes of Gen. Charles Swannack and Col. Paul Hughes.

Plus a lot of still-active officers, apparently; Batiste said that many of his peers felt the same way.

Batiste isn't some underachiever:

He was offered a promotion to three-star rank to return to Iraq and be the No. 2 U.S. military officer there, but declined because he no longer wished to serve under Rumsfeld. Also, before going to Iraq, he worked at the highest level of the Pentagon, serving as the senior military assistant to Paul D. Wolfowitz, then the deputy secretary of defense.

Of course, Bush didn't listen to these guys when they were in the military. Why would he listen to them now?

UPDATE: Colin Powell has joined the chorus against Rumsfeld. This isn't particularly surprising -- it was well known that he didn't like Rumsfeld's approach -- but up until now he had kept relatively quiet on the subject. Does this constitute a tipping point?

UPDATE II: If you're looking for posts discussing generals that support Rumsfeld, try here and here.

, , , , , ,

Busy busy busy

The site's on pace for it's third consecutive 100-visitor day, thanks to links from the Daou Report, the Moderate Voice and the Reaction.. If the pace keeps up, the site will get its 2,000th visitor today.

The most popular post at the moment is ConBoy: The Ballad of Tom DeLay. Check it out if you haven't yet.

Thanks to everyone who has stopped by to check out Midtopia.

,

Misusing intelligence

In yet another revelation that serves to debunk administration claims that they were innocent victims of bad intelligence regarding Iraq, we now learn that they ignored inconvenient reports regarding Iraq's bioweapons capacity.

On May 29, 2003, 50 days after the fall of Baghdad, President Bush proclaimed a fresh victory for his administration in Iraq: Two small trailers captured by U.S. and Kurdish troops had turned out to be long-sought mobile "biological laboratories." He declared, "We have found the weapons of mass destruction."

The claim, repeated by top administration officials for months afterward, was hailed at the time as a vindication of the decision to go to war. But even as Bush spoke, U.S. intelligence officials possessed powerful evidence that it was not true.

A secret fact-finding mission to Iraq -- not made public until now -- had already concluded that the trailers had nothing to do with biological weapons. Leaders of the Pentagon-sponsored mission transmitted their unanimous findings to Washington in a field report on May 27, 2003, two days before the president's statement.

The three-page field report and a 122-page final report three weeks later were stamped "secret" and shelved. Meanwhile, for nearly a year, administration and intelligence officials continued to publicly assert that the trailers were weapons factories.

This wasn't a matter of the intelligence being in dispute:
The technical team was unequivocal in its conclusion that the trailers were not intended to manufacture biological weapons. ... "There was no connection to anything biological," said one expert who studied the trailers.

Yes, earlier, preliminary examinations by military intelligence did conclude that the trailers had biological applications. But those conclusions should have been trumped, or at least balanced, by this one. Instead, this report was ignored and the earlier reports played up and repeated with growing enthusiasm.

This was a postwar incident, so it doesn't speak directly about the intelligence situation during the runup to the war. But it's reasonable to conclude that postwar administration practices were similar to prewar practices -- in this case, trumpeting "evidence" that supported the administration case while ignoring evidence that contradicted it.

That may be human nature, but it's an inexcusable basis for going to war.

, , , , , , ,

Competing to replace Cunningham

The special election to replace Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R.-Calif., will go to a runoff.

In the heavily Republican district, and out of a field of 18 candidates, Democrat Francine Busby took 44 percent of the vote. Her likely opponent appears to be Brian Bilbray, the GOP-endorsed candidate, who got 15 percent.

Turnout wasn't very high, and 18 candidates meant a seriously split vote. So Busby's margin doesn't say much about how the runoff will go.

But does anyone see the irony in the GOP endorsing Bilbray, a former congressman who is now a lobbyist, to replace a man who was forced to resign thanks to his too-close ties to campaign donors? Isn't Bilbray part of the problem?

I suppose electing a lobbyist could be seen as improving government efficiency by cutting out the middle man....

, , , ,

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

GOP looks to buy votes

Minnesota Republicans -- if they win the unnecessary legal dispute they created by calling the tobacco tax a fee -- want to use some of the revenue to provide a one-time payment to homeowners billed as "property-tax relief."

Great Plains View has a succinct opinion on the matter.

Me, I have a handful of thoughts:

1. A one-time payment is not "relief"; it's a bribe. Restoring cuts in state aid to cities is "relief."

2. Scheduling the payments to arrive three weeks before the general election is not coincidence. Nor should anyone be surprised that if the GOP doesn't win their unnecessary lawsuit, they can still claim that they "tried" to provide tax relief -- but those activist judges on the Supreme Court thwarted them.

3. Relief might not be necessary if the GOP-led state government hadn't decided to balance its budget by pushing costs down to counties and cities, forcing them to raise property taxes -- which, by the way, is one of the more regressive forms of taxation.

4. We've been down this road before, with Jesse Ventura. He rebated the state's rainy-day fund to taxpayers -- just before the economy turned south. When that rainy day came, we had no fund to help cushion the impact.

Prudent financial management says you put some money away in good times in order to help you get through the bad times without huge increases in taxes. Prudent financial management also says that if property taxes are a problem, you address the problem on an ongoing basis, not with a one-year stunt.

If the GOP is so concerned about my property tax bill, they can address their own starring role in its growth.

, , , ,

When government works

The state Senate yesterday approved a bill on identity theft. A similar bill is pending in the House.

What I like about this development is that it represents a fairly thoughtful approach amid a lot of hyperbole and noise about privacy. Given the intemperate proposals from the governor and attorney general, it would have been easy for the legislature to get stampeded into passing a bad bill. Instead, the Pawlenty/Hatch proposals appear dead.

The identity theft proposal is a particularly good one because, as the woman featured in the story says, it can be difficult, time-consuming and expensive to get false information out of your credit report, largely because the people with the power to remove it have almost no incentive for doing so quickly.

My wife and I were the victims of identity theft several years ago, and we still haven't gotten all the smirches off of our records. Trying to do so launched us on a merry-go-round of bureaucracy, with the credit bureaus saying the bank had to request that the information be removed, the bank saying it was the collection agency's responsibility, the collection agency saying they had asked the bank to remove it, the bank saying it had lost the records.... it went on and on.

Only laws with teeth can fix that problem for victims of such theft.

But general restrictions on access to government data are a different kettle of fish. For detailed discussions of why the governor's proposal is a bad one, go here and here.

, , , ,

Monday, April 10, 2006

Democracy retreats in the Mideast

Even as women gain voting rights in Kuwait, democracy elsewhere in the Middle East appears to be backsliding.

Analysts and officials say the political rise of Islamists, the chaos in Iraq, the newfound Shiite power in Iraq with its implication for growing Iranian influence, and the sense among some rulers that they can wait out the end of the Bush administration have put the brakes on democratization.

"It feels like everything is going back to the bad old days, as if we never went through any changes at all," said Sulaiman al-Hattlan, editor in chief of Forbes Arabia and a prominent Saudi columnist and advocate. "Everyone is convinced now that there was no serious or genuine belief in change from the governments. It was just a reaction to pressure by the international media and the U.S."

Follow-through has never been this administration's strong suit, but we can't even muster rhetorical outrage when Egypt delayed municipal elections for two years after a violent attempt to keep opposition supporters from voting. Apparently our committment to democracy doesn't apply when the opposition is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Encouraging democracy in the Middle East is a generation-long project. There will be bumps in the road, but what is discouraging about these bumps is that they come not because of resistance to U.S. pressure but because of inconsistent application of that pressure. We talked the talk, but we've been reluctant to walk the walk.

Further, Bush should have realized that the long-term nature of such a policy requires bipartisan buy-in. That means working with Democrats to agree on a strategy and establish a strong and united front, so that we and the world could be reasonably sure that the pressure for reform won't end once Bush leaves power. Instead the rabid partisanship in our domestic politics have encouraged despots to simply wait for 2008.

Iraq, far from being a demonstration of our resolve and a wake-up call for the Middle East, is increasingly being seen as weak spot, with the assumption that once we withdraw we will not be eager to re-engage in the Middle East for a while. In short, the poorly reasoned and incompetently executed occupation has weakened the push for democracy, not strengthened it.

Regardless of what happens in Iraq, we need to keep up the push for democratization in the region. At a minimum it's simply the right thing to do: supporting some dictators while overthrowing others is simply untenable, both morally and politically. But unless we're willing to invade countries that we consider allies, it's also the only way to see democracy succeed on the regionwide scale necessary to tamp down the flames if Islamic extremism.

, , , , , ,

Kersten on voting fraud

In previous posts I have excorciated Katherine Kersten for either being wrong or intellectually lazy. So it's only fair to point out that I largely agree with her column in today's paper. It is much too easy to vote illegally in Minnesota.

Does that mean it's a huge problem here? Not necessarily. But since the problem can be addressed with reasonable precautions, we should take them.

Kersten does a good job of laying out the issue, and the solution -- some form of photo ID or provisional ballots -- seems obvious. But Kersten, perhaps because of space limitations, doesn't really get into what we should do. She mentions a bill by Rep. Tom Emmer that would require a photo ID to vote; but all she does is ask "Is Emmer's bill perfect? Maybe not." She does not get into why she thinks it might not be perfect or what she would do instead.

The key is to have some sort of safeguard against fraud without raising undue barriers to voting. The electoral system hasn't collapsed with the current lenient rules, so draconian new rules aren't called for. Some form of photo ID, with a fallback option for people without such an ID, should do the trick.

As an aside, I wasn't impressed with Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer's complaint that she had no idea what had happened to the cases she referred to county attorneys. Her main point -- that there's no system for tracking vote-fraud cases -- is well taken. But her example is weak. She has the suspects' names, and knows which county attorneys she gave them to. How hard is it to pick up the phone and ask what became of the cases? Or look them up in the court database?

Minor nit, though. Kersten found a solid issue and wrote fairly thoughtfully about it. Good for her.

, , , , , ,

Another general wants Rumsfeld gone

A retired three-star Marine general, Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, is the latest general to criticize Donald Rumsfeld and the war in Iraq after retiring.

His Time Magazine essay is here.

He calls the Iraq war "unnecessary" and writes:

Inside the military family, I made no secret of my view that the zealots' rationale for war made no sense. And I think I was outspoken enough to make those senior to me uncomfortable. But I now regret that I did not more openly challenge those who were determined to invade a country whose actions were peripheral to the real threat--al-Qaeda.

He echoes my own sentiment when he adds

The cost of flawed leadership continues to be paid in blood. The willingness of our forces to shoulder such a load should make it a sacred obligation for civilian and military leaders to get our defense policy right. They must be absolutely sure that the commitment is for a cause as honorable as the sacrifice.

Finally, both his essay and the NYT story make clear that he is not alone. From the story:

Though some active-duty officers will say in private that they disagree with Mr. Rumsfeld's handling of Iraq, none have spoken out publicly. They attribute their silence to respect for civilian control of the military, as set in the Constitution — but some also say they know it would be professional suicide to speak up.

"The officer corps is willing to sacrifice their lives for their country, but not their careers," said one combat veteran who says the Pentagon's civilian leadership made serious mistakes in Iraq, but has declined to voice his concerns for attribution.

There's a lot more at both links. The essay is a must-read as a cogent distillation of how one can be a warrior and yet oppose this war, and of how military and constitutional principles go beyond simply "obeying orders."

It's not just "left-wing radicals" who oppose the war in Iraq. The true radicals are the ones in the administration who railroaded the country into war.


, , , ,

What does "explain" mean?

Arlen Specter has called on Bush to explain his role in the leaking of information to reporters.

What a refreshing concept: when asked about something, give a direct answer.

But that's not really how the Bush administration has operated. Bill Clinton famously disputed the meaning of the word "is". But that was in court. In the world outside the courtroom, Bush has gone far beyond Clinton in refusing to answer questions, or providing carefully parsed but misleading answers, or changing the subject.

Some examples:

• Providing misleading cost estimates for the Medicare drug benefit;

• Using discredited intelligence in the run-up to Iraq;

• The campaign to paint Iraq as an urgent threat and somehow connected to 9/11;

• Saying Congress had access to the same intelligence, when in fact they didn't;

• Defending the Patriot Act extension by saying the searches all require warrants, while running a secret warrantless eavesdropping operation;

• The recent British memo showing Bush was determined to invade Iraq regardless of what inspectors found;

• Saying he would fire anyone found leaking secrets, when he knew full well who was doing the leaking because he had authorized it;

And so on.

An illustrative if otherwise unimportant example was Bush's silence, during the campaign, on his military service record.

Bush supporters argue, correctly, that Bush wasn't running on his military service and so did not need to talk about it. But given the security focus of the campaign and the questions swirling around John Kerry's service, it was reasonable for the media to ask about Bush's service so one could compare the two.

Me, I couldn't have cared less what he did while in the service. That was 30 years ago, in a different time, and he was a different person then. If he spent all of Vietnam high as a kite in an opium den, it wouldn't have mattered to me at all.

In response to questions, Bush released some of his military records. But those records raised more questions. And Bush's response to that? Silence. Complete silence.

This led to the odd spectacle of Bush supporters arguing about what the records did or didn't prove, as if they were dissecting the Kennedy assassination. Except that Bush was very much alive, and could have cleared up the controversy in minutes by simply stating what had happened back then.

But he didn't. And he got hammered for it. Which I found very interesting. It led to three possible conclusions:

1. He truly couldn't remember what he had done;
2. He remembers, and the truth would have done more political damage than stonewalling;
3. He has a reflexive "none of your business" attitude on some things.

The logical conclusion at the time was that he had something to hide. But now I wonder if it simply reflects a character flaw -- an "it's only illegal if you get caught" mindset that rejects the notion of public oversight of his activities. That would certainly explain a lot, including the irritated and occasionally whiny tone he often adopts when forced to explain himself.

So I think Specter's plea will fall on deaf ears. This administration is the most secretive in recent memory, and doesn't believe it needs to explain itself. So its supporters will continue to argue about what Bush did and didn't know, while the man himself sits silently on the sideline, refusing to speak.

, , , , ,

Army has trouble retaining officers

In another sign that the repeated tours generated by the Iraq war are taking a toll on the long-term health of the military, young Army officers are leaving at an unusually high rate.

Last year, more than a third of the West Point class of 2000 left active duty at the earliest possible moment, after completing their five-year obligation.

It was the second year in a row of worsening retention numbers, apparently marking the end of a burst of patriotic fervor during which junior officers chose continued military service at unusually high rates.

Mirroring the problem among West Pointers, graduates of reserve officer training programs at universities are also increasingly leaving the service at the end of the four-year stint in uniform that follows their commissioning.

Naturally, the Army isn't taking this lying down:

To entice more to stay, the Army is offering new incentives this year, including a promise of graduate school on Army time and at government expense to newly commissioned officers who agree to stay in uniform for three extra years. Other enticements include the choice of an Army job or a pick of a desirable location for a home post.

The incentives resulted in additional three-year commitments from about one-third of all new officers entering active duty in 2006, a number so large that it surprised even the senior officers in charge of the program.

Those are excellent incentives, ones that I wish had been around when I was a young second lieutenant, and they have succeeded to some extent: retention rates are still better than they were immediately prior to 9/11. But the loss rate is rising rapidly despite the new incentives. The incentives just get junior officers far enough along their career path to make captain. And captain is where it starts to fall apart.

But the service's difficulty in retaining current captains has generals worriedly discussing among themselves whether the Army will have the widest choice possible for its next generation of leaders.

Exactly. Vietnam wrecked the military for a decade, as Congress cut the budget and it transitioned to an all-volunteer force that had trouble attracting good candidates because Vietnam had left its image in tatters.

Iraq is different in a couple of important ways: the public is doing a much better job of distinguishing between the warrior and the war, and Congressional support for military spending remains high. But like with Vietnam, an unpopular war of open-ended duration will drive away many of the best and brightest, robbing the military of future leadership.

This is the price we pay for using our military unwisely. It is why we should only put our soldiers in harm's way for the most defensible reasons. Not only is that a moral imperative; it is a practical one, too.

Update: As a sort of counterpoint to the above, USA Today reports that the Army is having better success retaining enlisted soldiers, helping to make up for shortfalls in recruiting.

, , , , , ,

New probe arrives at Venus tomorrow

The Venus Express, a $260 million mission to find out why Venus is a broiler and earth is not, is scheduled to go into orbit early tomorrow morning. It is designed to answer some specific questions.

Chief among them is what happened to turn Venus into a child's vision of hell, with a superheated toxic soup of an atmosphere that is 90 times denser at the surface than Earth's -- about the same pressure as the ocean at a half-mile depth. ...

There is a lot to understand. Measurements taken by early probes of Venus have made scientists all but certain that the planet once had extensive oceans that heated up and finally boiled off.

Quite probably the resulting cloud of water vapor provided the initial atmospheric blanket that turned the planet into a hothouse. "But where did [the water] go?" asked University of Michigan planetary scientist Stephen Bougher. "Nobody knows."

If they can figure out what happened on Venus, it might do one of two things: rule out the same thing happening to Earth, or provide a glimpse of what our future might be like if things go bad.

Given that Venus once had oceans, it also would be interesting to design a probe to land on the surface and search for fossilized evidence of life. Assuming all the hyperactive volcanism didn't erase the evidence in the eons since the oceans disappeared.

And there are other mysteries:

Another puzzle that has mystified scientists for decades is Venus's winds, which are negligible on the surface but reach speeds of 220 mph in the upper atmosphere, much faster than the planet rotates. Venus, the slowest-spinning planet in the solar system, has a "day" that is the equivalent of about 224 Earth days.

I can't wait for the data to come back and get analyzed.

, , , ,

Sunday, April 09, 2006

The Ballad of Tom DeLay

So I was musing a bit about what it would be like if Ronnie Earle were to actually get a conviction or plea deal with Tom DeLay, leading to fines and a prison term for the soon-to-be ex-Congressman. And, well, it happened.

May the fates forgive me.

CONBOY
Sung to the tune of "Convoy" by C.W. McCall
"Convoy" lyrics - "Convoy" Mp3


Uh, Breaker One-Nine, this here's the Lame Duck
How'd they get a copy of that e-mail Pig-Pen? C'mon

Uh, yeah 10-4 Pig Pen, fer sure, fer sure
They say it reaches clear to Flag-Town, C'mon

Uh, yeah, that's a big 10-4 Pig-Pen,
Yeah, they definitely got the smoking gun good buddy,
Mercy sakes alive, looks like we got us a ConBoy

Was the dark of the moon, in a grifter's room
On the Hill, breaking laws,
The head Tom boy and Reefer Roy
An' a Congress full of hogs
But back at home the DA roamed,
'Bout a mile outta Sugar-Town
He said "Pig-Pen, you're plumb out of luck;
Cuz I'm about to take the Hammer down."

Cause we gotta mighty ConBoy, he can't stand the light
Yeah we gotta mighty ConBoy, ain't it an ugly sight?
Come on an' help our ConBoy, send him up the river to stay,
We're gonna run this thievin' ConBoy, out of the USA
ConBoy... ConBoy...

Uh, breaker Pig-Pen, this here's Lame Duck
Uh, you wanna back off them hogs
10-4, 'bout five months or so, 10-roger
The heat is gittin' in-tense up here

By the time the probe reached Flag-Town
He made it four charges in all
But they's a road block on the committee floor
An' them hogs was wall to wall
With denials as thick as bugs on a bumper
An' claims that it wasn't fair
They passed the buck, but they was out of luck,
The Hammer was a-outta there

Cause we gotta great big ConBoy, he can't stand the light
Yeah we gotta great big ConBoy, ain't it an ugly sight?
Come on an' help our ConBoy, send him up the river to stay,
We're gonna run this weasel ConBoy, out of the USA
ConBoy... ConBoy...

Uh, you wanna give me a 10-9 on that Pig-Pen?
Uh, negatory Pig-Pen, yer still too close
Yeah, them other hogs is startin' to get nervous
Mercy sakes, you better back off, take a break, you know?

He had rolled up way back in '94,
A Gingrich guy through and through,
But the power went right to his head,
As power so often do.
By the time '05 rolled around,
he was actin' like a king,
From K Street to the money men
And some gerrymandering
There was pork, and sleaze and bank accounts
An' frauds of every size
From bugs he switched to Democrats
as things to exterminize
Well he shot the line, an' he went for broke
With a thousand dirty tricks
A self-proclaimed devout friend of Jesus
WIth a soul like an oil slick

Hey Rovester, listen
We may need to turn that Hammer into a suicide jockey
Yeah, this stuff is dynamite
He needs all the help he can git

Well he vowed to fight but then turned to flight
He decided to resign
He could see the writing on the wall
An' it was gettin' near to trial time
"I say, Pig Pen, this here's Ronnie Earle,
An' this time you're gonna pay in full,
You'll be in Kegans State 'til you're ninety-eight
I sez, let true justice roll, 10-4

Cause we gotta little ol' ConBoy, he can't stand the light,
Yeah we gotta little ol' ConBoy, ain't it an ugly sight?
Come on an' help our ConBoy, send him up the river to stay
We're gonna roll this slimy ConBoy, out of the USA
ConBoy... ConBoy...

Uh, 10-4 Pig-Pen, what's yer 20?
Clemens?!
Well they oughta know what to do with a hog like you out there fer sure
Well mercy sakes alive good buddy
We gonna back on outta here
So keep the bugs off yer glass
An' the DAs off yer... tail
We gonna catch ya on the flip-flop
This here's the Lame Duck on the side
Wishin' you luck
Bye, Bye...

, , , , , , ,

Saturday, April 08, 2006

Bush, leaks and history

The New York Times has a nice perspective piece on Bush's role in leaking classified information.

The important quote for me:

Scott McClellan, the president's spokesman, disputed the charge of a double standard on leaks. "There is a difference between declassifying information in the national interest and the unauthorized disclosure" of national security information, Mr. McClellan said Friday.


I agree. But the key phrases there are "national interest" and what jeopardizes national security.

The president has the power to classify or declassify anything he wants. That makes it legal, but doesn't address whether it's right. If the president improperly classifies illegal information, then the proper thing for someone to do is illegally leak that information. That, in my opinion, is what happened in the cases of the secret CIA prisons and the NSA surveillance. No operational details were released in either instance, so it's hard to see how national security was jeopardized; the mere knowledge that these programs exist may be embarassing, but do not constitute security breaches.

But many critics refused to focus on the merits of the revelations, focusing instead on the narrow legal issue: "revealing classified information is a crime, period." They are right, but they miss the point that law and ethics don't always coincide.

The president comes across as seriously hypocritical when he condemns leaks while leaking himself, and narrowly legalistic defenses don't change that. He also comes across as a liar thanks to his public statements after the Plame affair came to light.

Finally, one can properly ask why, if Bush was willing to declassify information in the normal course of things, he didn't just declassify and release it but instead leaked it to a reporter. The answer, clearly, is that he had a political motive for releasing the information. This isn't in itself unethical; it only becomes a problem if the leak damages national security -- which it didn't -- or if one is hypocritical about such leaks -- which Bush was -- or if one lies about it -- which Bush did.

, , , ,

Iran: the nuclear option

Seymour Hersh reports that the Bush administration is making plans for a massive bombing campaign in Iran.

That in itself is not particularly surprising. Such contingency plans are standard fare in military circles, and as I've said before, a bombing campaign may well be necessary to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

And before getting too excited, we should note that all the sources are anonymous. Hersh is a solid investigative journalist, so he gets the benefit of the doubt from me. But don't jump on this as proven fact just yet.

That said, the report contains two remarkable and worrisome details:

There is a growing conviction among members of the United States military, and in the international community, that President Bush’s ultimate goal in the nuclear confrontation with Iran is regime change. Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has challenged the reality of the Holocaust and said that Israel must be “wiped off the map.” Bush and others in the White House view him as a potential Adolf Hitler, a former senior intelligence official said. “That’s the name they’re using. They say, ‘Will Iran get a strategic weapon and threaten another world war?’ ”

Adolf Hitler? Even if Ahmadinejad had aspirations to be a new Hitler, he wields little actual power withint Iran -- and Iran is no Germany in terms of military strength. Bandying that term about so readily indicates a moralistic drive behind the planning, and calls up two bad associations I had hoped were dead and buried. It's very neocon language, and in the runup to the invasion of Iraq the administration repeatedly invoked Hitler in relation to Saddam Hussein. They can't seriously be contemplating the same thing with Iran.

And regime change through bombing? Has that ever worked? Apparently the administration thinks it will this time:

One former defense official, who still deals with sensitive issues for the Bush Administration, told me that the military planning was premised on a belief that “a sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government.” He added, “I was shocked when I heard it, and asked myself, ‘What are they smoking?’ ”

Every conflict I can think of teaches the opposite lesson: that bombing rallies a population behind the government, however despised it may be otherwise. Iranians may dislike the mullahs, but they will dislike American bombs even more. It may be necessary to send in bombers to disrupt their nuclear capacity; but sending in bombers in hopes of toppling the mullahs is pure fantasy.

If this report is true, it means the same strain of naivety and wishful thinking that led to the botched Iraqi occupation is still in control of administration thinking -- which means besides being naive they're also incapable of learning from experience.

The second notable thing is that the administration is reportedly considering using tactical nuclear bunker busters to get at deeply buried facilities. On one level this is simply practical: If the facility is buried deeply enough, like the main Iranian centrifuge plant at Natanz, a nuke may be the only way to destroy it. But the political fallout from America using nuclear weapons again, as well as the irony of using nuclear weapons to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, should give planners serious pause. But apparently it's not.

The attention given to the nuclear option has created serious misgivings inside the offices of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he added, and some officers have talked about resigning. Late this winter, the Joint Chiefs of Staff sought to remove the nuclear option from the evolving war plans for Iran—without success, the former intelligence official said. “The White House said, ‘Why are you challenging this? The option came from you.’ ”

We should avoid nukes if at all possible. Maybe we can simply deny use of deeply buried facilities by destroying the entrances, ventilation shafts and the like. Maybe we can simply target and destroy any vehicles moving in and out of it, so that whatever is in the facility stays there. It may take more work, and be less certain of success. But that is probably preferable to the huge downsides of using nukes.

Here's what I worry about:

Speaking of President Bush, the House member said, “The most worrisome thing is that this guy has a messianic vision.”

That's what got us in trouble the first time. And it's impervious to reason.

A bombing campaign to eliminate Iran's nuclear capability is one thing, and something I will support once it's clear the diplomacy is going nowhere -- as I think it is. And if the preparations are part of a campaign to put pressure on Iran and show them that we're serious about using force if necessary, so much the better. Diplomacy based on the threat of force requires that the threat be credible.

But the principles underlying the reported planning go far beyond that -- and are a huge mistake.

, , , , ,

Friday, April 07, 2006

Hamas hints it might recognize Israel

Apparently the responsibility of having to govern -- and the prospect of bankruptcy -- is having an effect on Hamas.

A senior Hamas official said Friday the group is ready to accept a "two-state" solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but the Hamas prime minister said he is unaware of plans by the Islamic militants to change their hard-line government platform.

The senior Hamas official said the two-state idea was to be raised by Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh in a meeting Friday with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, a moderate who advocates negotiations with
Israel.

The meeting was preceded by a series of contradictory statements from Hamas officials about whether a new government would recognize Israel in some fashion.

There's a lot of waffling there, so I'll believe it when I see it. But the fact that they're even willing to float the idea shows the pressure they're under. Not from the outside so much as internally: now that they're in charge, they have to act responsibly.

Apparently even Hamas can be tamed -- not by us, but by the Palestinian people.

, , ,

A threat to the fabric of freedom

The Bush administration continues to play by its own set of rules, to the detriment of truth and liberty.

First we have the big news of the day, that Bush himself authorized Lewis Libby to discuss classified information with reporters.

As the Washington Post notes, this is legal by definition -- the President, after all, has the ultimate authority to declassify information -- but was "highly unusual and amounted to using sensitive intelligence data for political gain."

This doesn't directly implicate Bush in the Plame case; he authorized discussion of a National Intelligence Estimate, not Plame's identity. But it does expose Bush's hypocrisy, since he complained about leaks of classified information while leaking such information himself. So his real position is that he should be the only one allowed to leak information. This is legally correct, but ethically it stinks.

But almost lost in the hubbub over the leak revelation is this little gem from Attorney General Alberto Gonzales:

Gonzales left open the possibility yesterday that President Bush could order warrantless wiretaps on telephone calls occurring solely within the United States -- a move that would dramatically expand the reach of a controversial National Security Agency surveillance program.

In response to a question from Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) during an appearance before the House Judiciary Committee, Gonzales suggested that the administration could decide it was legal to listen in on a domestic call without supervision if it were related to al-Qaeda.

"I'm not going to rule it out," Gonzales said.

Translation: there is no legal line that the administration will not cross on its own authority. Warrants? We don't need no stinkin' warrants. FISA? Nothing but a toothless scrap of paper.

Whatever you think of the administration, giving one branch of government the right to decide for itself whether its actions are legal is a really, really, really bad idea. The whole reason warrants exist is to protect citizens from the government. What Gonzales has just suggested is that such protection doesn't exist if the executive branch, on its own sole authority, decides it wants to eavesdrop on you.

I have no objection to wiretapping suspected terrorists; I want them caught and foiled just like everybody else. Just get a warrant first. If the evidence of terrorism involvement isn't strong enough to survive scrutiny by a court as compliant as FISA, then the wiretap is probably unjustified.

You know, Democrats may be a threat to my wallet (though given the fiscal irresponsibility of the Bush administration, I don't know how anyone can make that case anymore). But they don't scare me. Republicans under Bush, on the other hand, are a threat to the fundamental fabric of freedom. Warrantless wiretaps. Pre-emptive war based on the thinnest of reasoning, followed by stunning incompetence in the occupation and here at home. Massive deficits. Politicizing science. Corruption. Shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to the middle class. Unfunded mandates for the states. Band-aid solutions for big problems like health care. Ignoring AMT. The list goes on and on and on. Their carelessness and hubris is not just incredible; it's actively harmful.

Find a set of principles, Mr. President. Respect the law, Mr. President. Do your job, Mr. President.

And Congress, you do yours. Stand up for the country and actually serve as a check on the executive branch, rather than playing the patsy or accomplice.

You won't see me rant very often. But stuff like this makes my blood boil.

, , , , , , , ,

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Bob Woodruff goes home

Bob Woodruff, the ABC anchorman seriously injured in a roadside bomb blast in Iraq, appears to be well on the way to recovery. He sent a note to his ABC colleagues thanking them for all the support they've shown.

I am moving on to outpatient treatment and I can’t tell you what a blessing it is. Though I know there is still a long road ahead, it’s nice to be feeling more like myself again – laughing with family, reading bedtime stories and reminding my kids to do their homework.

The photo of Woodruff was taken today, and he looks very well.

His cameraman, Doug Vogt, was released from the hospital in February.

,

Low class on both sides of the aisle

First you have Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney claiming racial bias when she's stopped by a Capitol police officer -- whom she subsequently hit -- and apologizing only when the case is referred for possible criminal prosecution.

Then you have DeLay supporters shouting down Nick Lampson, the Democratic candidate for his seat.

Were these people raised by wolves?

Update: Let's add Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., to the list. He decided to make a political issue out of where his opponent is having his daughter's cancer treated.

, , , , ,

Islam's Reformation

I recently had an e-mail exchange with a reader who said that the problem facing the world today is Islam. Not radical Islam, not Islamic terrorists, but Islam itself.

He pointed out, correctly, that much of the violent behavior is justified by either the Koran or the Hadiths (collections of sayings and deeds attributed to Muhammad). His main thesis was that Islam is not a peaceful religion, it is a violent one, and thus cannot be accomodated; it must be opposed.

Even if you believe this, there are lots of reasons not to act on that belief -- not making instant enemies of the world's 1 billion Muslims, for example. I know moderate Muslims, so they do exist. Even "battle of civilizations" proponents should want such Muslims on their side, simply because it makes the battle more winnable.

But that's not the point of this article. What I'm reaching for here is historical context. I do not pretend to be a religious scholar, but this is what I see unfolding in Islam today.

Most major religions are born out of conflict and tribulation. Judaism arose from the beliefs of the wandering tribes of Israel; Christianity arose from the torture-death of a Jewish heretic and rabblerouser; Islam arose among the warring nomadic tribes of the Middle East. The notable exception to that rule is Buddhism -- which is also, not coincidentally, the most peaceful of the major religions.

Thus Jewish scripture is full of stories of conquering land, slaughtering enemies, condoning polygamy and slavery, and horrific punishments for violation of minor religious laws. Christianity, being an offshoot of Judaism, adopted those same stories, renaming them the Old Testament. And despite the New Testament being a modification or even wholesale replacement for the Old, the Old Testament is still cited on such matters as homosexuality and adultery, as well as when invoking the awesome power of God and the penalties for defying him.

Islam, too, contains a contradictory mix of violence and peacemaking, a product of the tribal culture it sprang from, as well as the practical realities that Muhammad straddled the secular/sectarian line. He founded a major religion, but he was also heavily involved in efforts to unite the tribes and turn their violent energies outward, into a conquering force that swept the region. It's no coincidence that the Koran is more forgiving and peaceful than the Hadiths. The task is trying to separate the words of Muhammad the prophet from the words of Muhammad the general and tribal nationalist.

Admittedly, it's more complicated than that. The Koran and the Hadiths are somewhat similar to the Jewish Torah and Talmud. One is the core religious text; the other is a collection of explanations and traditions. But in the case of the Hadith, the authenticity of many sayings is suspect, and as a result there are many different Hadiths. Reconciling them will be a major challenge. But the main point is that the Hadiths are less authoritative than the Koran.

From those usually violent beginnings, most religions seem to undergo a predictable growth arc -- from persecuted sect to evangelical expansion to established religion that persecutes its own sects in turn. At some point there is a schism among believers, which is either settled -- violently, for the most part -- or results in a split, such as the Protestant/Catholic split in Christianity or the Sunni/Shiite split in Islam.

Eventually a religion has to reconcile its violent, expansionistic origins with the reality of being part of the establishment. And that means repudiating the more extreme aspects of their origins. Hence no mainstream Christian denomination follows Jewish dietary law, even though Jesus was a devout Jew. No Jew or Christian thinks slavery is divinely approved, even though the Old Testament had no problem with it. Most of Leviticus has been discarded wholesale.

In addition, most religions discover that religion and secular power don't mix well, nor does intolerance and enforced orthodoxy. So over time most religions get out of the governing business, and allow all believers to follow their conscience. Christianity managed that trick just a couple of centuries ago -- and still hasn't shaken the impulse entirely.

Such growth didn't happen easily, and it didn't happen overnight. It takes a long time for a religion to mature. It's no coincidence that the oldest major Western religion, Judaism, is also the least evangelical and most tolerant; Jews resolved their major schism thousands of years ago. Christianity is younger, and resolved its contradictions just a few hundred years ago, although the effects linger in certain quarters.

Islam is the youngest of the three. I submit that what we are seeing today is Islam passing through the same painful adolescence that both Judaism and Christianity endured centuries ago.

Let's look at the timeline. Christianity was born in the 1st Century. The Reformation came 1,500 years later, and took a century of warfare to resolve -- and was preceded by centuries of religious warfare, such as the Crusades.

Islam was founded in the 7th Century. And now, 1,500 years later, it is at the same stage of development as Christianity was 600 years ago.

The parallels are striking. The 1400's began with the Spanish Inquisition, which eventually led to the expulsion of Jews and Muslims from Spain. Elsewhere there was a brisk business in burning heretics at the stake, notably John Huss and Jerome of Prague, burned for spreading the writings of John Wycliffe.

This led to the rise of the Hussites, which in turn prompted the first interChristian Crusade, a 13-year war between the church and the Hussites that the Hussites won.

All this bloodshed merely laid the foundation for the Reformation, which would convulse the entire 16th Century in violence and horror. And religious wars also marked the 17th Century, notably the Thirty Years' War that began in 1618.

But Christianity emerged from all that a more mature religion. Split, of course, between Catholics and Protestants, but with armed force no longer a desirable option for enforcing orthodoxy. Two centuries of war had, quite simply, worn everybody out. They were ready to embrace tolerance if that was the price of peace.

And so it is, I believe, with Islam. We are unfortunate enough to be alive during Islam's bloody transition from its medieval origins to modernity. The good news is that eventually moderate theology should win the day: the more violent parts of the Koran will be devalued, and any conflict between the Koran and the Hadith will be resolved in favor of the Koran, since the Koran is God's word and the Hadith is not.

The bad news is that it could take 100 years or more, and the fallout and human cost could be very, very high.

There is reason for optimism. The world is not as backward a place as it was in the 15th Century. The West has learned the lessons of religious violence, and can serve as an example and guide for resolving Islam's internal conflicts. So while the Islamic Reformation is and will be violent, it can be expected to take less time than the Christian Reformation did.

Our job, therefore, is to encourage and support the moderate reformers while opposing and undermining the medievalists. It will take patience, money, intellectual firepower and an acknowledgement that it will proceed in fits and starts. But the entire world will benefit from Islam shedding its medieval past. If ever there was a project well worth undertaking, this is it.


, , , , , , ,

Creative professions oppose gay-marriage ban

The Twin Cities is one of the few nationally recognized centers of the ad industry outside of New York and Los Angeles. Twin Cities ad offices have billings of about $2 billion a year, and provide thousands of well-paying jobs.

That's why we should care about the letter that 50 local ad agencies sent to Gov. Pawlenty.

The letter says that such a constitutional amendment could undermine a creative business climate, stifle recruitment and send the wrong message to potential clients.

The agencies are self-interested to a degree, since many creative fields such as advertising have a higher-than-average percentage of gay employees. But when that industry is a major part of the state economy, we all have an interest in it.

There's research that shows a correlation between a region's gay population and its cultural and economic vibrancy. One can debate the causality -- do concentrations of gays create such vibrancy, or does the vibrancy create an environment that is attractive to gays? -- but the correlation is clear.

A gay marriage ban is not only unjust; it would be economically damaging to the state, chasing away the sort of high-paying jobs that we should be trying to attract.

, , ,

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Split brain

How do you know if you're a moderate? When stuff like this happens:

Right now the site is getting a stream of (presumably) conservative/Republican readers, thanks to a link from Hugh Hewitt to the post on health insurance and Mitt Romney.

At the same time, another stream of visitors is coming in from the Daou Report, to read why we have no reason to trust the GOP on ethics or budgetary matters.

It's good to be in the middle.

,

Democracy advances in the Mideast


Kuwaiti women went to the polls for the first time on Wednesday, in a by-election viewed as a test case for the full parliamentary elections in 2007.

The election also featured another first: female candidates.

The May 2005 decision [to let women vote] sparked widespread debate about women's roles in politics, with some conservative Islamist members of Parliament arguing that women should not be allowed in Parliament without wearing the Islamic hijab, or head covering.

The landmark political participation of women in Kuwait's election Tuesday is part of a regional trend in the Arab Gulf states, where women are growing more publicly vocal about political matters.

Qatar recently announced that it would hold first ever parliamentary elections in 2007, in which women will be allowed to vote. These modest political gains mark a dramatic shift for a region where many women still cannot even leave their homes, take a job, or go to school without the permission of their father or husband.

These are baby steps, to be sure. Both Kuwait and Qatar are still ruled by unelected emirs, and there are still plenty of obstacles to overcome:

32-year-old chemical engineer Jenan Al-Bousheri has taken a modest approach to her campaign, refusing to visit the all-male diwaniyas, or gathering places. Another female politician, Ayesha Al-Reshaid, who already announced plans to run for parliament in 2007 and has visited male diwaniyas, recently received a death threat warning her to stop campaigning.

Ms. Bousheri, who wears the Islamic hijab and has worked for the municipality for 10 years, says she doesn't feel threatened but instead is simply being respectful of the country's conservative nature. In addition to not visiting the diwaniyas, she refused to include her photo on campaign billboards, which could be considered indecent.

Still, this demonstrates two important things: that there is such a thing as "moderate" Islam and relatively moderate Arab states, and that gradual change is possible. Both Kuwait and Qatar would likely have taken these steps without our invading Iraq; and by doing it on their own they become true examples of freedom flowering in the Middle East.

Our job now is to support these countries -- using aid and trade agreements to demonstrate the tangible benefits of moving toward democracy and tolerance -- while gently pressing them to adopt true democracy and hold elections for top leadership posts. That approach has risks: the current Western-friendly emirs could be replaced by more hostile radical Islamists, as happened in Palestine. But the Gulf emirates are not Palestine, and if we cannot persuade them to move forward instead of backward, we have lost the war of ideas.

At any rate, the only principled approach is to try. Decades of blindly supporting "our" dictators is one of the things that helped create the current mess in the Mideast. At least this way, if the Mideast descends into a new Dark Ages the blood isn't on our hands.

Update: A male candidate won the election. But one of the two female candidates, Jinan Boushahri, came in second. A distant second, to be sure -- 1,807 votes to the winner's 5,436 -- but she beat out three male candidates.

, , , , ,

Massachusetts tries health insurance for everyone

The Massachusetts legislature has passed a bill requiring everyone in the state to buy health insurance, much the way car insurance works in most places.

Under the bill, the state would offer subsidies to private insurers to cover more low-income families. Companies with more than 10 workers that don't offer health insurance to their workers would pay $295 to the state for each worker, money that will be used to subsidize the health insurance of others.

Something to watch; it's one of several models of universal health care being bandied about. This is one of the most market-oriented ones. And being pushed by Mitt Romney, a Republican governor in a blue state. If it works, it could find national support -- and could fuel Romney's presidential aspirations.

For a more comprehensive take on health care, here's what I wrote a few weeks ago.

, , , , ,

Never mind

The GOP is vowing to tackle ethics reform, among other things.

''We will take steps necessary to plug those areas where problems have erupted," said Boehner, an Ohio Republican, adding that ethics reform will be merely the first of many initiatives this spring, including a new fiscally responsible budget plan.

Translation: "We were sleazy, but we'll be good now, at least in the areas where we've been caught." Also, note the tacit admission that up until now their budget plans have not been fiscally responsible.

Why should we suddenly trust them now?

, , ,

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Senate kills gay marriage bill

As expected, the DFL-controlled Senate killed the proposed gay marriage amendment in committee, on a 5-4 party-line vote.

There was only one interesting twist:

Senators altered the proposed amendment so that it wouldn't have asked voters to strictly ban the legal recognition of same-sex relationships. Instead, it would have prohibited judges from defining marriage in Minnesota, reserving that right for state legislators.

Though one Democrat supported that alteration, all five then proceeded to kill the amendment anyway.

That would almost have made the subsequent campaign interesting.

The DFL did the right thing, but of course they were self-interested as well. Without the amendment on the ballot, social conservatives have less reason to turn out on election day. And that's really what this whole thing was about: Republicans trying to use a wedge issue to get their supporters to the polls, and Democrats trying to foil them.

It cannot be said too often: whatever you think about gay marriage, this amendment is premature. Marriage, for better or worse, is still restricted to men and women in Minnesota. If and when that status is threatened, then we can talk about mucking with the state constitution. Until then, this is just noise, smoke and political grandstanding.

Sen. Michelle Bachmann, the amendment's main backer, has become a single-issue legislator. For that reason alone she should be sent packing in November.

As a side note, Bachmann's openly gay stepsister showed up at the hearing with her partner to "show that the issue affects all Minnesota families." That puts Bachmann in an elite group: antigay activists or politicians with gay relatives. The group includes Randall Terry, founder of Operation Rescue, whose son Jamiel is gay. And Alan Keyes, whose daughter, Maya, is gay.

As Dick Cheney (whose daughter, Mary, is gay) demonstrates, having a gay relative usually makes you more sympathetic to their situation. With the exception of folks like Bachmann, it will get harder and harder to find support for antigay policies as more and more people realize that people they know and care about are gay. When someone makes Dick Cheney look sensitive by comparison, you know they have a compassion deficit.

, , , ,

Rating Jim Ramstad


I got a newsletter from my Congressman, Jim Ramstad, the other day. He has a reputation as a moderate Republican, no big suprise since he represents a suburban Minnesota district. But is it deserved?

In the newsletter he highlights his stance on various issues, carefully tailored to appeal to his constituents.

TERRORISM AND SECURITY
Expedite the training of Iraqi troops so we can bring our troops home. Supported Patriot Act extension. Supported border security legislation.
The first is the only logical course. The second I have more disagreements with, largely in the area of civil liberty protections. The last is simply a mess that I haven't made a decision on yet.

JOBS AND TAX RELIEF
Brags a lot about tax cuts, but curiously mentions nothing about the deficit....

HEALTH CARE AND MEDICARE
Supports altering the Medicare drug program to allow importation of drugs and price negotiations with drug companies. Wants to expand health savings accounts and enact medical liability reform.
Amen to the first; the second is fine but doesn't come anywhere close to being a solution for rising medical costs; the third is code for capping damages in lawsuits, which is simply a grudge against trial lawyers, who overwhelmingly support Democrats. For a variety of reasons, an arbitrary cap is a terrible idea.

EDUCATION
Supports requiring full federal funding for federal education mandates.
Amen.

ETHICS
Says all the right things, but really vague on the specifics. This is an issue where talk is far, far cheaper than action.

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
Voted for the energy bill and against ANWR drilling.
In Minnesota, supporting ANWR is political suicide. The energy bill wasn't any great shakes. The House version provided *no* incentives for alternative forms of electricity production while providing more than $6 billion for oil and gas incentives and research.

TRANSPORTATION
Supports the Northstar Corridor commuter train project and the Hiawatha light-rail line, both important steps toward a serious mass-transit system.

PROPERTY RIGHTS
Supports legislation limiting the power of eminent domain.
Generally a good idea as long as it isn't carried to an extreme.

Reading that list, I became curious about what he wasn't telling us about. So I looked him up on Thomas. Here's what I found.

Ramstad has sponsored 22 bills this session. Among them:

Supporting a free-trade pact with Taiwan;
A private bill to keep a Greek national, Konstantinos Ritos, from being deported;
A whole bunch of tax code and export law changes that appear designed to benefit state businesses;
Various crime-related bills;
Various bills extending health services for retirees.

Not a particularly distinguished list, but nothing really objectionable, either.

Okay, fine. So how did he vote? Let's turn to the scorecards.

ACLU: 9 percent
Public Citizen: 40 percent
League of Conservation Voters: 61 percent
Club for Growth: 50 percent, more or less

A whole slew of others are available at Project Vote Smart.

The summation: Ramstad is a right-leaning moderate, although he swims against the tide in some ways, such as his strong scores on environmental issues and poor scores from the NRA and other gun groups. Naturally I disagree with him on some specific issues, but overall he's the kind of politician I can support -- a moderate who doesn't toe his party line all the time. His legislative accomplishments are a bit lightweight for someone who has been in Congress for 16 years, but I'd rather have a less-active moderate than an overactive partisan.

, , ,

Gasohol vs. gasoline


Here in Minnesota, all gasoline is required to contain ethanol. If you're like me, you've probably wondered just what we accomplish by doing so. Is the total energy cost of ethanol lower than gasoline? What about greenhouse gasses?

Which is why I was glad to see a very straightforward commentary by biology professor Peter Wyckoff in Monday's Star Tribune.

The main point of the article is Wyckoff advocating that we start using switchgrass as a source of ethanol instead of corn. But for me the most interesting facts were these:

Weighing all the factors -- the fossil fuel needed to grow and ferment corn vs. the cost of drilling oil, the lower energy content of ethanol vs. gasoline (and the resulting lower mileage) -- ethanol helps, but not a whole lot. Gasoline containing 20 percent ethanol will cut a vehicle's total greenhouse emissions by about 2 percent.

That may not be much, but it's something. Unless ethanol costs significantly more -- and Wyckoff doesn't get into that -- increased ethanol use is worth pursuing.

But it does suggest that the strongest argument for ethanol is energy independence, not global warming. The more ethanol we use the less oil we need, which is an absolute good in my book. Because what we pay at the pump for a gallon of gasoline doesn't reflect the political, military and moral cost of that gallon. The sooner we can stop subsidizing repressively medieval regimes, the better.

, , , , , ,

Monday, April 03, 2006

Tom DeLay to quit Congress


Yow. DeLay has abandoned plans to seek re-election and will resign his seat by mid-June, setting the stage for a special election to fill the vacancy.

I think that means two elections in very short order, since a special election usually just fills out the remainder of a Congressman's term. I guess the hope is a Republican will win and have the advantage of incumbency come November. With two elections in six months, it also might be a way to leverage DeLay's money advantage.

Why did he drop out? He cites declining poll numbers, but this is the sort of thing that will fuel all sorts of speculation. Maybe DA Ronnie Earle actually has something on him after all, instead of simply harassing him with a politically motivated indictment as many DeLay supporters have claimed. Maybe the two aides who have pleaded guilty to corruption have agreed to testify about his involvement. Maybe the Republican leadership felt his trial was turning into a spectacle that was damaging the party.

Whatever happens, good riddance. DeLay was pure hardball sleaze from the get-go; if he didn't actually cross the ethical line with his funding and lobbying tactics, he sidled right up to it repeatedly. He was one of the people poisoning Congress with unbridled partisanship.

May I dare hope that moderates will step up to fill the leadership vacuum being created by the current GOP troubles?

, , , ,

Lucky 17


This isn't the way these things usually turn out:

A huge military cargo plane crashed shortly after takeoff at Dover Air Force Base on Monday, breaking apart in a belly flop that drenched some of the 17 people aboard with fuel but caused no fire or life-threatening injuries. ...

Military officials said the C-5 Galaxy, the military's largest plane at more than six stories high and 247 feet long, developed problems soon after taking off for Spain about 6:30 a.m.

It crashed just short of the runway while attempting to return to the base and broke in two behind the cockpit. The tail assembly landed several hundred yards away, and an engine was thrown forward by the impact.

Next time I'm buying Lotto tickets, I want one of those 17 to pick the numbers.

Zarqawi demoted

Over on Al-Jazeera, an al-Qaeda representative claims that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been stripped of his position as political head of the Iraqi resistance following "mistakes", retaining only a military role.

Azzam said he regularly receives "credible information on the resistance in Iraq. He said al-Zarqawi had "made many political mistakes", including "the creation of an independent organisation, al-Qaeda in Iraq".

"Zarqawi also took the liberty of speaking in the name of the Iraqi people and resistance, a role which belongs only to the Iraqis," Azzam said.

As a result "the resistance command inside and outside Iraq, including imams, criticised him and after long discussions demanded that he be confined to military action".

Not quite the same thing as repudiating his tactics, such as attacks on civilians. And the claim is totally unconfirmed, so take it with a grain of salt. But it squares with reports of friction between Zarqawi's group and Iraqi insurgents. The good news is that the friction appears to be moderating Zarqawi's tactics; the bad news is that he and the Iraqis are still working together.

, , , ,

Scalia photographer barred from working for Archdiocese

The photographer who took the picture of Antonin Scalia flipping off reporters has been blacklisted by the Boston Archdiocese.

Scalia had asked the freelance photographer, Peter Smith, not to publish the photo. Instead, he gave it to the Boston Herald, which put it on its front page on Thursday.

Smith, 51, had freelanced for diocese's The Pilot newspaper for a decade, but he said yesterday, “I did the right thing. I did the ethical thing,” according to the Herald. Smith is also an assistant photojournalism professor at Boston University.

I didn't care about Scalia's Sicilian gesture, which is why I didn't write about it. But this is just silly. The Archdiocese has an absolute right to determine who it will buy pictures from, and cutting ties to a freelancer doesn't have the same legal and ethical baggage as firing an employee. But this is petty with a capital P.

Will it have a chilling effect on future coverage of Scalia? I doubt it, especially with the Herald as a willing alternative market for such images. But overall it doesn't help if reporters and photographers have to worry about jeopardizing existing contracts in order to write about or photograph powerful people. Freelancers should be judged on the quality and reliability of their work for the diocese, not the content of unrelated work.

, , , ,

SCOTUS rejects Padilla appeal

The Supreme Court rejected an appeal by "enemy combatant" Jose Padilla, who has been trying to challenge being jailed without charge for three years.

So on the surface, the Bush administration's legal strategy -- charge Padilla with crimes *other* than the ones they used to justify his detention, in order to avoid Supreme Court review -- has worked.

But the details provide reason for hope -- and illustrate why the government was so eager to keep the case away from the Supreme Court.

Three justices said the court should have agreed to take up the case anyway: Justices David H. Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer.

And three other court members, including Chief Justice John Roberts, said that they would be watching to ensure Padilla receives the protections "guaranteed to all federal criminal defendants."

The other two justices were Kennedy and Stevens. That pretty much serves notice that the government would have had tough sailing in defending its practices before the Court.

It also demonstrates that the Court now has a three-justice conservative bloc whose votes are dogmatically predictable: Scalia, Thomas and now Alito.

, , , , , ,

Kersten on campus

I was going to write about today's Kersten column, but Great Plains View beat me to it.

The main point: I agree with Kersten. But so what?

, , , , ,

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Some options on global warming

Here's a decent roundup on global warming -- what scientific consensus is regarding what will happen, what might happen, and what we can do about it.

The upshot: It's too late to stop global warming, but not too late to avoid the worst-case scenarios.

Scientists say it's too late to stop people from feeling the heat. Nearly two dozen computer models now agree that by 2100, the average yearly global temperature will be 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than now, according to Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Even if today the world suddenly stops producing greenhouse gases, temperatures will rise 1 degree by 2050, according to NCAR.

A British conference on "avoiding dangerous climate change" last year concluded that a rise of just 3 degrees would likely lead to some catastrophic events, especially the melting of the Greenland's polar ice. A study in the journal Science last month said the melting, which is happening faster than originally thought, could trigger a 1- to 3-foot rise in global ocean levels.

So the idea now is to accept that we'll have at least a century of global warming, but take immediate steps to avoid the extreme cases while taking long-term steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Even naysayers are coming around, sort of:

Many of the scientists who have long been vocal skeptics of global warming now acknowledge that the Earth is getting hotter and that some of it is caused by people. Even so, this minority of scientists, such as John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville, contend that the warming is "not on this dangerous trajectory."

Okay. Forgive me if your credibility on this isn't the highest at the moment.

, , ,

Priorities

In today's Star Tribune, the legislative roundup notes that this week two major pieces of legislation will be considered.

What are they, you ask? Perhaps a budget bill. Perhaps a transportation bill. Or an education bill. Or perhaps something truly revolutionary, like a proposal to implement instant-runoff voting or apportion our electoral college votes between candidates, rather than give them all to whoever polls the most votes in the state.

Nope. None of that. The "major" legislation? A stadium for the University, and the gay-marriage amendment.

How did our priorities get this screwed up?

,,,

Saturday, April 01, 2006

NATO expands in Afghanistan -- but will it help?

NATO commander Gen. James Jones said the alliance can expand its peacekeeping operations throughout most of Afghanistan by August.
That's good news, and about time. But there is some doubt about how effective such a move will be, since a lot of it will involve merely absorbing U.S. troops that are already in the country.

Only 98 U.S. troops died in Afghanistan last year but the ratio of casualties to overall troop levels makes Afghanistan as dangerous as Iraq. While Iraq's violent disintegration dominates the headlines, President Bush touts Afghanistan as a success. During his recent visit, the president told Afghans their country was "inspiring others ... to demand their freedom."

But many features of the political landscape are not so inspiring -- one is the deteriorating security situation. Taliban attacks are up; their tactics have become more aggressive and nihilistic. They have detonated at least 23 suicide bombs in the past six months, killing foreign and Afghan troops, a Canadian diplomat, local police and, in some cases, crowds of civilians.

Kidnapping is on the rise. American contractors are being targeted. Some 200 schools have been burned or closed down. Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, senior American military officer here, expects the violence to get worse over the spring and summer.

The backdrop to this gathering crisis is Afghanistan's shattered economy. The country's 24 million people are still totally dependent on foreign aid, opium poppy cultivation and remittances sent home by the 5 million Afghans abroad. Afghanistan ranks fifth from the bottom on the U.N. Development Program's Human Development Index. Only a few sub-Saharan semi-failed states are more destitute.

The article goes on to mention that the United States is slashing reconstruction spending and reducing its troop presence, sort of regardless of the actual situation on the ground.

, , ,

Civil war in Palestine?

A Hamas militant died in a car bombing on Friday, and Hamas blamed forces loyal to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. Four people died in the ensuing unrest.

The setup is almost novelistic:

About half the gunmen are allied with Hamas, including Abu Quka, and the other half with Fatah. Abu Quka's supporters blamed the Fatah-dominated Preventive Security Services for his assassination; a shootout at the militant's funeral killed the three others and wounded more than 20.

Hamas took control of the Palestinian Authority on Wednesday after trouncing Fatah in legislative elections in January. It has pledged to restore order in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, but Palestinian security forces, most of them affiliated with Fatah, are involved in the violence, and Hamas has little control over them.

Abbas, a moderate who favors peace talks with Israel, is a vocal critic of violence but has struggled to gain control over the security forces since his election last year.

The forces are evenly matched. One is highly militant, the other is only loosely controlled by its nominal boss.

That's a perfect recipe for a long, intractable civil war that neither side can win. Perhaps such a step is necessary to settle the internal contradictions among the Palestinians and produce a leadership that can finally reach a lasting settlement with Israel. But it could just as easily lead to a Lebanon-style conflict that benefits no one.

Let's hope cooler heads prevail -- and that Hamas gets around to recognizing Israel.

UPDATES
Fatah gunman defy Hamas, take to streets
Gaza strongman nixes gun control


,,,,,,

John Dean on impeachment

Nixon's White House counsel, John Dean, told the Senate Judiciary Committee that Bush's warrantless eavesdropping program >deserved censure and possibly impeachment.

"Had the Senate or House, or both, censured or somehow warned Richard Nixon, the tragedy of Watergate might have been prevented," Dean told the Senate Judiciary Committee. "Hopefully the Senate will not sit by while even more serious abuses unfold before it."

Testifying to a Senate committee on Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Russell Feingold's resolution to censure Bush, Dean said the president "needs to be told he cannot simply ignore a law with no consequences."

Strong stuff. And coming from a former White House counsel that witnessed another impeachment process firsthand -- and a Republican to boot -- it's powerful.

That said, it doesn't really move the ball any. Feingold's resolution serves a purpose: it keeps the eavesdropping alive and in front of voters and Congress. But I agree with the Democratic leadership that the resolution is otherwise premature. Keep the pressure on to make sure the investigation goes forward; but wait for the investigation to finish before discussing possible sanctions.

Not to let the Republicans off the hook:

But Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said that passing a censure resolution would do more harm than good. "Wartime is not a time to weaken the commander-in-chief," he said.

That's a weak argument. Does the "it's a war" excuse mean the president can do anything he wants and the nation should do nothing? Arguably wartime is a time for closer monitoring of presidential actions, because a president's wartime powers are so extensive and abuse so much easier.

Hatch is essentially arguing for abandoning Congress' oversight responsibility. Not a good idea.

His comment is also yet another example of why viewing the "war on terror" as a traditional war is a big mistake.

, , , , ,