Abbas: Unity government will recognize Israel

If he's right, and he pulls it off, this is huge.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the U.N. General Assembly Thursday that the planned national unity government will recognize
Israel....

Abbas told the assembly's annual ministerial meeting that he has recently sought to establish a government of national unity "that is consistent with international and Arab legitimacy and that responds to the demands of the key parties promoting Mideast peace — recognition, ending violence and honoring past agreements.

"I would like to reaffirm that any future Palestinian government will commit to all the agreements that the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian National Authority have committed to," he said.

So far it's just talk. And there are hotheads on both sides that would like to derail this. And we'll have to see how grudgingly Hamas plays along. Cross your fingers.

Abbas, Hamas, Israel, politics, midtopia

U.S. health care gets a 'D'

Despite paying half again as much for health care as our nearest competitor (Switzerland), a study released this week gives the United States a 66 percent score in health care outcomes, quality, access and efficiency compared to other industrialized nations.

How seriously should we take this? Well, it depends.

The U.S. ranks 15th out of 19 countries in terms of the number of deaths that could have been prevented. The study estimates that each year 115 out of 100,000 U.S. deaths could have been avoided with timely and appropriate medical attention. Only Ireland, Britain, and Portugal scored worse in this category, while France scored the best, with 75 preventable deaths per 100,000.

Here's an example. We rank 15th... but we still only have 115 preventable deaths per 100,000. That's an error rate of about 0.1%. We could do better, but we're still doing pretty darn well.

The U.S. ranks at the bottom among industrialized countries for life expectancy both at birth and at age 60. It is also last on infant mortality, with 7 deaths per 1,000 live births, compared with 2.7 in the top three countries. There are dramatic gaps within the U.S. as well, according to the study. The average disability rate for all Americans is 25% worse than the rate for the best five states alone, as is the rate of children missing 11 or more days of school.

These are more serious numbers, because life expectancy and infant mortality are basic measures of a society's health. But again, though we lag the competition, we're better off than much of the world; an infant mortality rate of only 0.7 percent isn't too shabby.

What those overall numbers, miss, though, is the unevenness of health care quality in the country. The report notes major gaps in quality and access across the country, with poorer areas, unsuprisingly, having worse outcomes.

So the problem isn't that our health care stinks overall; it's that access to it is uneven, and that we're paying far too much for the results we get.

Further, more and more of that cost is being shifted to workers. Salaries that were negotiated when employers picked up much of the health-insurance premium are now having to absorb a larger share of that premium. The result is that workers are spending a growing share of their income on health care.

Since benefits are part of worker compensation, it's not a particularly big deal if the budget line that pays for health care changes from the benefits side to the salary side -- as long as overall compensation remains stable. But what's happening is that employers are shifting the costs to workers without raising their pay to compensate, meaning a net loss of income to workers. It's a stealth pay cut.

It makes lots of sense to make people pay for their health care directly. Our current system arranges things so that people pay the same for health care whether they use it a lot or a little. This is good because it spreads the financial risk, a prime purpose of insurance. But it also raises some big moral hazards, because consumers have no incentive to limit their use of health-care resources. Giving them incentives to spend their money wisely will encourage more efficient use of those resources and keep overall costs down while possibly improving care -- because people are only going to pay for the care they want, from doctors who provide it efficiently and courteously.

But if workers are expected to pay their own health care costs, their salaries should be bumped up in the interim to compensate and then allowed to adjust to the market from that new base. Anything else is a betrayal of the social contract that has underpinned our health-care system for decades.

medicine, insurance, health care, politics, midtopia

Back in the saddle

It's been crazy busy the last few days, both at work and at home, where we're adjusting to my wife going back to work and having two kids in school. I've barely had time to read the papers, much less post.

Luckily, I make time for the important things. My fantasy football team is now 2-0, having nearly doubled my opponent's score. We now hit bye-week hell. I have to do without Antonio Gates and two of my RBs this weekend, going up against a pretty good team whose only hole is at kicker. I'm pulling out all the superstitious rituals I can to ensure both I and the Vikings go 3-0.

Substantive posts to follow.

fantasy football, midtopia

Ney pleads guilty

After months of denial, Rep. Robert Ney has pleaded guilty to charges of conspiracy and making false statements in the Jack Abramoff scandal.

This isn't a wrist slap, either.

The maximum sentence for the two counts is 10 years, but the Justice Department and Ney's lawyers agreed on a sentencing recommendation of 27 months in prison, provided Ney continues to provide truthful information. The final sentence will be determined by a federal judge.

Ney could also be fined up to $500,000, according to the agreement.

Ney had already abandoned his re-election bid. I presume he'll have to resign his Congressional seat.

Time to update the Hall of Shame.

corruption, Ney, Abramoff, politics, midtopia

Reading... who needs it?

In case any of you despair about the workers who will be supporting you in retirement:

Educational doomsayers are again up in arms at a new adult literacy study showing that less than 5 percent of college graduates can read a complex book and extrapolate from it.

The obsessive measurement of long-form literacy is once more being used to flail an education trend that is in fact going in just the right direction. Today’s young people are not able to read and understand long stretches of text simply because in most cases they won’t ever need to do so.

It’s time to acknowledge that in a truly multimedia environment of 2025, most Americans don’t need to understand more than a hundred or so words at a time, and certainly will never read anything approaching the length of an old-fashioned book. We need a frank reassessment of where long-form literacy itself lies in the spectrum of skills that a modern nation requires of its workers.

Yes, clearly the world will be a better place when nobody is able to process ideas too complicated to be expressed in 100 words or less....


literacy, politics, midtopia

Delay trial could be delayed until 2007

... because the conspiracy charge against him might be reinstated.

The court could have rejected Earle's appeal outright, sending the case back to Priest's court for additional pretrial motions and a possible trial.

But by accepting the case for review, the high court likely pushed any trial in DeLay's case off until next year. No date for oral arguments has been set.

If anyone was holding their breath waiting for the resolution of this case, now is probably a good time to stop.

DeLay, Texas, politics, midtopia

Maybe they bought it off the Internet

Okay, a lot of people won't take the UN's word for anything. But in this case, they seem to have a point.

U.N. inspectors investigating Iran's nuclear program angrily complained to the Bush administration and to a Republican congressman yesterday about a recent House committee report on Iran's capabilities, calling parts of the document "outrageous and dishonest" and offering evidence to refute its central claims. ...

Privately, several intelligence officials said the committee report included at least a dozen claims that were either demonstrably wrong or impossible to substantiate. Hoekstra's office said the report was reviewed by the office of John D. Negroponte, the director of national intelligence.

The report was written by a single GOP staffer, Frederick Fleitz, with hard-line views on Iran and ties to John Bolton. It was not voted on or discussed by the full committee; Republicans simply made it public.

Among the errors:

1. The committee said Iran is producing weapons-grade plutonium, which usually means 90 percent enriched. Iran has in fact only managed to enrich uranium to 3.5 percent.

2. The committee said the IAEA had removed an inspector because he raised concerns about Iranian deception. The inspector has not been removed.

3. Most obnoxiously, the report asserted, without evidence, that the IAEA director had an "unstated" policy of keeping inspectors from telling the truth about Iran.

All this makes me wonder if this is a peek inside the intelligence-massaging techniques that led to the invasion of Iraq. With breathtaking chutzpah, the report makes unsubstantiated assertions about Iran's nuclear capabilities -- and then chastises intelligence agencies for failing to provide information that supports those assertions.

Make your own reality, and then go dig up (or make up) evidence to support it.

Here's the kicker:

Hoekstra's committee is working on a separate report about North Korea that is also being written principally by Fleitz. A draft of the report, provided to The Post, includes several assertions about North Korea's weapons program that the intelligence officials said they cannot substantiate, including one that Pyongyang is already enriching uranium.

The intelligence community believes North Korea is trying to acquire an enrichment capability but has no proof that an enrichment facility has been built, the officials said.

Fabulous.

The full text of the IAEA letter is available here.

Update: The Congressional report is available here.

Fleitz, nuclear, Iran, politics, midtopia

Some backbone in the Senate

It may be because they face tough re-election battles, but four GOP senators -- including John Warner, chairman of the Armed Services Committee -- defied President Bush and approved legislation on the treatment of detainees. The bill goes to the Senate floor next week.

Unlike Bush's proposal -- which would essentially rubber stamps his own actions -- the bill Warner's committee approved would permit suspects to view classified evidence against them and does not attempt to rewrite the Geneva Conventions.

As senior GOP leaders balked, Colin Powell released a letter opposing Bush's plan.

"The world is beginning to doubt the moral basis of our fight against terrorism," Powell, a retired general who is also a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote in his letter.

Powell said Bush's bill, by redefining the kind of treatment the Geneva Conventions allow, "would add to those doubts. Furthermore, it would put our own troops at risk."

The effect of the split could be seen in the White House's response -- firing testily from the hip and having to apologize later.

White House spokesman Tony Snow said Powell was "confused" about the White House plan. Later, Snow said he probably shouldn't have used that word.

"I know that Colin Powell wants to beat the terrorists, too," he said.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist threatened to ignore the Armed Services Committee and bring Bush's proposal directly to the floor for a vote -- a move that would only increase the division in the GOP ranks.

That Bush, he's quite a uniter.

terrorism, tribunals, Bush, Warner, Senate, politics, midtopia

Why are we in Iraq?

Apparently, it's not to defeat the insurgency.

A senior American commander in Iraq said Tuesday that U.S.-led military operations are "stifling" the insurgency in western Anbar province but are not strong enough to defeat it.

Marine Maj. Gen. Richard C. Zilmer told reporters in a telephone interview from his headquarters in Fallujah that he has enough U.S. troops — about 30,000 — to accomplish what he called his main mission: training Iraqi security forces.

"For what we are trying to achieve out here I think our force levels are about right," he said. Even so, he said the training of Iraqi soldiers and police had not progressed as quickly as once expected.

"Now, if that mission statement changes — if there is seen a larger role for coalition forces out here to win that insurgency fight — then that is going to change the metrics of what we need out here," he added.

And all this time I thought we were trying to beat the insurgents. Now I find out that the reason American commanders haven't asked for more troops is because that's not their job.

For the rest of his comments, I'll refer you to a previous post on the subject:

He's right that a reconciliation process is the only way to achieve long-term stability. But he just blithely ignores that short-term stability is needed to get the reconciliation process started.

I've got an idea. How about we defeat the insurgents in order to create that short-term stability we need for long-term stability to take root?

Zilmer, terrorism, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Poor rules of engagement

What to make of this?

The U.S. military acknowledged Wednesday that it considered bombing a group of more than 100 Taliban insurgents in southern Afghanistan but decided not to after determining they were on the grounds of a cemetery.

I respect the need to be mindful of cultural and religious sensitivities. And there's always the desire to minimize civilian casualties. But look at the picture: They're lined up in rows. Those aren't civilians; those are soldiers. Cemetery or not, pull the trigger.

Taliban, Afghanistan, politics, midtopia

Minnesota primaries

Not a lot of surprises in yesterday's primary elections. Kennedy, Klobuchar, Hatch, Pawlenty and Hutchinson all won easily.

One slight (and encouraging) surprise, though: in the conservative Fort Ripley area, State Sen. Paul Koering, the only openly gay Republican legislator in Minnesota, won his primary against a family-values candidate, Kevin Goedker.

Koering wasn't openly gay until last year, and Goedker made his sexuality an issue. So this was in part a referendum on the electability of gay Republicans in outstate Minnesota.

Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson easily won his primary; we'll see now how his "sanding off the truth" debacle will play with voters in the general election race against Republican Joe Gimse.

Let the campaigning begin in earnest!

politics, midtopia

A mixed bag for moderates

Yesterday's primaries were a mixed bag for moderates.

In the most closely watched race Sen. Lincoln Chafee defeated a conservative challenger backed by the Club for Growth, guaranteeing that a moderate will be elected no matter who wins in November.

But in Arizona, conservative Randy Graf won the primary battle to replace retiring moderate Republican Jim Kolbe, defeating moderate Steve Huffman, who was endorsed by Kolbe and backed by national Republicans. Graf will face Democrat Gabrielle Gifford in November. This could mean the seat could go Democrat, which is good in the sense that the GOP deserves to lose a lot of seats this year. But I don't know enough about Gifford's politics to say whether electing her would be a good thing for moderates.

In Vermont, the House's lone independent, Bernie Sanders, is trying to become the Senate's lone independent to replace Jim Jeffords, the Senate's current lone independent. I note this for the "independent" angle; Sanders, whose views are rather socialist, is not exactly a moderate.

You'll note one thing about all these races: they are defensive ones, attempting to keep a moderate seat moderate. Such battles are necessary, but we're not going to elect more moderates until we get off the defensive and start putting gerrymandered "safe seats" into contention.

politics, midtopia

House leaders seek to water down eavesdropping bill

The House Judiciary Committee today will consider its version of a warrantless wiretapping bill. But if GOP leaders have their way, it will be so watered down as to be a pile of dreck.

The main bill already has minimal teeth. It would give the government five days instead of three to seek a FISA warrant following the start of emergency surveillance. Nonemergency warrantless surveillance would require Congressional approval within 60 days. It would also require more consultation with Congress.

A competing measure is better, clearly asserting that the FISA law is the operative law with regard to surveillance issues.

House leaders, though, want to replace all that with a meaningless provision, allowing but not requiring the administration to submit the program to the secret FISA court for a ruling on its legality.

Pathetic.

At least there are some voices being raised in opposition to this rubber stamping of administration actions. Voices from both sides of the aisle, in both the House and the Senate. So there remains a chance that the GOP leadership's kow-towing will be defeated and Congress will in fact assert its proper Constitutional role instead of abetting the steady expansion of executive power.

But now would be a good time to call your representative.

FISA, wiretapping, NSA, terrorism, politics, midtopia

Movement in Palestine

Yesterday, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas reached a deal with Hamas for a unity government, in which the Hamas government would resign and be replaced by a mixture of Hamas and Fatah representatives, as well as representatives from various splinter groups.

Most important from the Palestinian viewpoint was the prospect that such a move would mean a resumption of the aid it relies on to pay its bills, aid that was suspended following Hamas' ascent to power. That hope appears to have been fulfilled, as the EU said it would consider resuming aid.

More important to the rest of us, however, is that as part of the agreement Hamas gave Abbas full authority to resume peace negotiations with Israel.

It remains to be seen whether all this talk will result in actual change on the ground. "Peace negotiations" are not the same thing as "peace agreement", and it's an open question whether the more militant Palestinian groups -- or even the military wing of Hamas -- will accept and abide by any such deal. Expect at least a couple of attacks aimed at disrupting the talks if they appear likely to bear fruit.

But Hamas sanctioning negotiations with Israel is a pretty big step. It appears that in this case the economic embargo worked, forcing Hamas to choose between militant purity and seeing to the needs of the Palestinian people. To their credit, they have (at least for now) chosen the latter.

Abbas, Hamas, Israel, Palestine, politics, midtopia

One and oh, baby!

I run a fantasy football league in my copious spare time -- 10 mostly longtime owners, a fairly normal performance-based scoring system. 14-man rosters, and you have to start 8: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K, DEF.

I traded away the #3 overall pick in the draft in order to stockpile picks in rounds 2-5. Which gave me a somewhat odd roster:

QB: Donovan McNabb, Aaron Brooks
RB: Warrick Dunn, Chester Taylor, Julius Jones, Dominick Rhodes, Jerrius Norwood, Cedric Benson
WR: Torry Holt, Lavaranues Coles, Eddie Kennison
TE: Antonio Gates
K: Jason Elam
DEF: Chicago Bears

I was really worried about my running game and who my #2 receiver would be. But for Week 1, at least, everything worked out. I won handily even without my two Monday night players (Taylor and Gates), and it looks like I might have the high score for the week.

Super Bowl, here I come!


football, fantasy, midtopia

The lost province?

This is what playing whack-a-mole will get you.

The chief of intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq recently filed an unusual secret report concluding that the prospects for securing that country's western Anbar province are dim and that there is almost nothing the U.S. military can do to improve the political and social situation there, said several military officers and intelligence officials familiar with its contents.

The officials described Col. Pete Devlin's classified assessment of the dire state of Anbar as the first time that a senior U.S. military officer has filed so negative a report from Iraq.

One Army officer summarized it as arguing that in Anbar province, "We haven't been defeated militarily but we have been defeated politically -- and that's where wars are won and lost."

It's one man's opinion, of course; but that one man is a very senior intelligence officer whose job is to make assessments like this.

And how did this happen, in Col. Devlin's opinion? No surprise:

Devlin offers a series of reasons for the situation, including a lack of U.S. and Iraqi troops, a problem that has dogged commanders since the fall of Baghdad more than three years ago, said people who have read it. These people said he reported that not only are military operations facing a stalemate, unable to extend and sustain security beyond the perimeters of their bases, but also local governments in the province have collapsed and the weak central government has almost no presence.

I'm stunned. Really. Not enough troops? Who would have thunk it?

A caveat: the Post did not see the report, and is relying on anonymous sources to describe it. But nobody is disputing the nature of the report, not even people who disagree with its conclusions. So it strikes me as genuine.

Anbar, Devlin, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Iraq roundup

A few worthwhile links in the ongoing furor over the planning and execution of the Iraq invasion:

Vice President Dick Cheney defended his hard-line role in the White House, amid reports that his influence within the administration is waning and reminders of how wrong he has been on several fronts -- from his now-infamous "last throes" reference to the Iraqi resistance to his belief that toppling Saddam would weaken the forces of jihad. Instead, it has strengthened them and weakened us.

Then there's his unrelenting defense of everything the administration has ever done, indicating an unwillingness or inability to learn from experience. For instance, he said Sunday that if he had to do it all over again he would still invade Iraq. And his ability to dismiss videotapes of him making assertions that have since been proven false. And his continued use of discredited "evidence" to try to tie Iraq to al-Qaeda.

This is a man in denial. A denial almost as deep as that of Donald Rumsfeld, who besides claiming credit for the success of tactics he opposed, has again been fingered as the man who made sure that the post-war occupation would be a stupendous failure.

Months before the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld forbade military strategists from developing plans for securing a post-war Iraq, the retiring commander of the Army Transportation Corps said Thursday.

In fact, said Brig. Gen. Mark Scheid, Rumsfeld said "he would fire the next person" who talked about the need for a post-war plan.

WHY DO THESE PEOPLE STILL HAVE JOBS?

Rumsfeld, Cheney, Iraq, politics, midtopia

9/11, five years later

A moment of silence. There will be lots of discussion, analysis and blatant politicizing of this. But for now, let's just remember the 3,000 who died, the heroic efforts of first responders, the just and well-executed toppling of the Taliban, and the last time we were unified as a country. May we someday recapture that moment and make it last.

politics, midtopia

Holding a grudge

In a satirical example of how all politics are personal, I give you this.

In which a diehard Redskins fan takes aim at former Redskins QB Heath Shuler, who is running for Congress in North Carolina. His campaign -- complete with hilarious attack ads -- is supposedly intended to prevent Shuler from bringing his aura of defeat back to Washington.

Heath Shuler, politics, midtopia

Another NSA lawsuit proceeds

An Oregon judge is allowing another suit challenging the NSA eavesdropping program to go through.

U.S. District Judge Garr King said he believes there may be a way for the lawsuit, filed by a now-defunct Islamic charity, to proceed without releasing information that could harm national security.

The lawsuit was filed by the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, which had a chapter in Ashland that went out of business after the U.S. government labeled it a terrorist organization.

The foundation charged that two of its lawyers and at least one official were under electronic surveillance in March and April 2004. The foundation asked King to rule the surveillance a violation of a federal law that requires a special court to approve intelligence-related wiretapping.

This is different from the ACLU suit in Detroit, which led to a judge ordering the program shut down -- a ruling that has been suspended pending appeal.

What makes this case interesting is that the plaintiffs seem to have a very good chance of showing proper standing for the suit, as well as the ability to argue that a trial would not compromise national security. Here's why:

The Portland case turns on what King called the "Sealed Document," information that government lawyers accidentally gave Al-Haramain lawyers in 2004 before demanding it back. King said the document is now in a secure room at the FBI's Portland office.

Al-Haramain's attorneys want to use the document to make their case, but the government says any use of it will compromise state secrets.

King said the document remains classified, despite its disclosure to the plaintiffs and to a reporter from the Washington Post.

This would seem to indicate that there is proof the charity was monitored, essentially proving they have standing; and it would seem to obviate much of the security argument, because the information is already out of the bag.

We shall see.

NSA, terrorism, politics, midtopia

Caught on Tape II

A couple of months ago, Condoleeza Rice was caught on tape speaking frankly about Iraq. Now it's the Terminator's turn.

In the sanctuary of his Capitol office with an audio recorder rolling, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger describes Republican legislators as the "wild bunch" and, referring to a Latina lawmaker, casually says that "black blood" mixed with "Latino blood" equals "hot" — a fiery personality....

They also freely discuss other state legislators and the political process.

It's not particularly startling stuff. And it doesn't impress the listener the way Condi's overheard discussion does. The racial remarks, quoted above, will draw fire from people who say it's racist. But the comments were not said maliciously -- Schwarzenegger actually admires the lawmaker in question. And they aren't all that different from me attributing my penny-pinching ways to my Scottish ancestry.

I just include it here as a glimpse into Arnie's style and personality.

You can listen to an MP3 of the recording here.

Schwarzenegger, California, politics, midtopia

More good news from Lebanon

Yesterday Israel lifted its air blockade of Lebanon. Today, it lifted its naval blockade.

Israel turned over monitoring of Lebanon's coast to Italian naval vessels, who "will continue to enforce the international embargo against the supply of armaments to Hezbollah," Israeli government spokeswoman Miri Eisin said.

It also announced it would withdraw completely from Lebanon within two weeks. And Israel signaled it would be willing to leave ownership of the dispute Chebaa Farms area up to the UN, and cede it to Lebanon if the UN says so.

That territorial dispute is the main obstacle to a permanent peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, so Olmert's suggestion has fairly large implications.

On the downside, the last time the UN looked into the matter it said the Farms didn't belong to Lebanon -- a ruling Lebanon rejected (it doesn't belong to Israel, either; the UN decision was based on the conclusion that it was originally part of Syria, same as the rest of the adjacent Golan Heights). Both sides would have to agree to abide by the UN's decision for this to work.

More pragmatically, Israel might just cede the territory and be done with it. It's militarily useful territory -- the high ground looks down on Israel on one side and Syria/Lebanon on the other. But it's uninhabited, and a few square kilometers are not worth more than a permanent peace.

All of this leaves one major item unresolved -- the fate of the two Israeli soldiers whose capture sparked the recent fighting. Look for Israel to grudgingly agree to swap prisoners, like it did earlier with Hamas.

After that, we can get down to watching how the Lebanese Army, backed by UN peacekeepers, deal with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, politics, midtopia

Surprise, surprise

The promised Senate report is out, and the main conclusion shouldn't surprise anyone who hasn't shared the White House's isolation chamber for the last five years.

There's no evidence
Saddam Hussein had ties with al-Qaida, according to a Senate report on prewar intelligence that Democrats say undercuts President Bush's justification for invading Iraq.

Bush administration officials have insisted on a link between the Iraqi regime and terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Intelligence agencies, however, concluded there was none.

Republicans counter this is "old news." I'd agree with them.... if the administration didn't continue to insist that Iraq had terror connections, and that the invasion was justified. For it to be "old news", war supporters actually have to accept it as true.

And as I noted yesterday, we're still waiting for the real report: What, if anything, the administration did to manipulate or shade the intelligence it received. We won't know until the report comes out, but allow me a purely speculative question: why would Congressional Republicans tie that particular report up in knots unless there actually was something to hide?

Let us hope the truth comes out sooner rather than later.

Bush, terrorism, Bush, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Whatever happened to Phase 2?

That would be the second part of the Congressional probe of U.S. intelligence failures in Iraq -- the part that's supposed to examine how the administration used the intelligence it had. The part that was postponed until after the 2004 elections so as not to, I don't know, influence them or something.

Phase 2 is still -- surprise, surprise -- tied up in partisan bickering. But at least there's this:

A Senate panel on Thursday voted to release two newly declassified reports on prewar Iraq intelligence, including one examining the role of an Iraqi exile group that spread allegations, later proved false, about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction....

A second report compares U.S. prewar intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's links to terrorism with findings made by military and intelligence officials after the March 2003 invasion.

Look for them on Friday at the committee's Web site.

intelligence, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Pollster admits making up data

And the victims include several well-known politicians.

The owner of DataUSA Inc., a company that conducted political polls for the campaigns of President Bush, Sen. Joe Lieberman and other candidates, pleaded guilty to fraud for making up survey and poll results.

Tracy Costin pleaded guilty Wednesday to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Costin, 46, faces a maximum of five years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000 when she is sentenced Nov. 30.

I assume the data was fabricated to tell the candidates what they wanted to hear, which could have led to poor choices as far as campaign rhetoric, spending, scheduling and the like.

This is just one pollster, and one I've never heard of at that. I would not use this case to draw conclusions about the ethics and legality of the profession as a whole. But it does highlight the enormous amount of trust people put in pollsters -- not just to be honest, but also to conduct their polls in a professional and statistically valid manner. Usually this is fine, especially when the pollsters publish their methodology and detailed results. But it reinforces the fact that polls should be taken with large grains of salt -- one reason you'll rarely see them quoted here.

Costin, polls, politics, midtopia

A day of revelations

I didn't capitalize the "R" in the title, but perhaps I should have. Let's start at the top.

The Pentagon finally released its new interrogation field manual, and it is a Good Thing.

Forced nudity, hooding, using dogs, conducting mock executions or simulated drownings were among eight abusive interrogation practices banned under new rules unveiled by the U.S. military on Wednesday....

The manual explicitly prohibits torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment. But it keeps 16 long-standing interrogation techniques and adds three new ones, said Lt. Gen. John Kimmons, Army deputy chief of staff for intelligence.

We'll get to those in a minute. What is most heartening is this acknowledgement:

"No good intelligence is going to come from abusive practices," he said. Intelligence obtained under duress, he added, would have "questionable credibility" and do more harm than good when the abuse inevitably became public.

This is good. But as we'll see below, the administration does not actually believe that.

So what is allowed?

Practices still permitted include rewarding detainees for cooperation, flattery and instilling fear. Two of the new techniques were the use of a good-cop, bad-cop approach and allowing interrogators to portray themselves as someone other than a U.S. interrogator.

A third new technique, called "separation," can be used only on detainees deemed "enemy combatants" to keep them away from one another, and only with high-level military approval.

No real issues there. Although the FBI has complained in the past about interrogators posing as FBI agents. And posing as lawyers or journalists can cause other problems.

Nonetheless, I am well pleased. It may have taken years of mounting criticism and a Supreme Court ruling to make it happen, but it has happened. Now perhaps the stain of torture can be removed from the military's reputation.

The downside is that these rules don't apply to the CIA. And that's particularly relevant, because President Bush acknowledged today that the spy agency does, indeed, operate a network of secret prisons for "high-value" detainees -- the final 14 of whom have now been transferred to Gitmo for trial.

The Washington Post has a nice breakdown of the detainees here.

I admit to being torn on this one. Don't get me wrong; we shouldn't be routinely torturing people or operating prisons outside the reach of the law. But my main objection to mistreating prisoners stems from the fact that we did so before proving that the detainee was, in fact, a terrorist, and that we were denying basic rights to a wide swath of people.

But in the case of known high-ranking terrorists, different rules may apply. If we were to capture bin Laden, I would not object to harshly interrogating him to learn of associates and active plots.

So I'm okay in principle with the idea of establishing a different set of rules for a very, very, VERY small number of high-value prisoners. But those rules should be clearly established by Congress, in play for a limited time and conducted under close scrutiny and oversight from higher officials. They should not occur in secret prisons beyond the reach of public accountability.

Speaking of public accountability, Bush also asked Congress to approve his plan for military tribunals. It contains no serious concessions to the recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down his previous plan; he's asking Congress to rubber-stamp the plan he came up with. This includes using secret evidence that defendants cannot see, as well as evidence obtained through coercive interrogations.

That's a bad idea. Try and convict them in a fair trial, or not at all. If they're a terrorist, throw away the key. But prove it first.

tribunals, Gitmo, CIA, terrorism, Bush, politics, midtopia

Lebanon improves

So far, so good.

Turkey pledges peacekeepers to Lebanon, and the Lebanese Army takes over five villages from Israel. Meanwhile, a deal is being discussed to lift the Israeli blockade of Lebanese ports -- a blockade intended to keep Hezbollah from rearming as long as Israeli troops are in Lebanon. And the UN is mediating prisoner-swap talks between Israel and Hezbollah.

Separately, it appears an Israeli soldier being held by Hamas will be swapped for as many as 800 Israeli prisoners -- to be followed by a meeting between Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas.

politics, midtopia

What are we standing up?

I came across this a few days ago and thought it was interesting. It's just one Marine's observations, but it rings true to this ex-tanker.

After discussing what appears to be ingrained Iraqi military culture (officers beating up subordinates, officers stealing supplies, rations and money), this Marine trainer sums it up with:

So after 6 months we've:

- taught them techniques for planning operations...they won't do it.
- shown them how to conduct weapons sustainment ranges...they won't do it.
- we've shown them how to conduct convoys...they won't do it.
- we've taught them moral and ethical behavior required of soldiers...they won't do it.
- we've taught them how to manage logistics...they won't do it.
- we've taught them personnel and administrative management...they won't do it.
- we've taught them how to operate tactically...they won't do it.
- we've taught them how to sustain the life support systems on the camp...they won't do it.

Basically we have taught them how to be a self sufficient battalion, but unless the Marines do it for them, they won't do anything. They ALWAYS revert back to the "Iraqi way" when we are not around and that involves DESTROYING and WASTING everything they get their hands on.

Though repugnant to us, there's nothing inherently destructive about officers striking troops. The South Korean military is one of the best in the world, and is known for doing exactly that -- officers beating the snot out of sergeants, sergeants beating the snot out of privates. It can work if it fits with local culture.

But what the rest implies is that by Western standards the Iraqi Army will never be ready to tackle things on its own.

Of course, under Saddam the Iraqis were rather good at squelching uprisings, so we know that they can get the job done in that respect. But that involved minority Sunnis beating down majority Shiites, so they had incentive to do a good job and there was a limit to how far they could go. And it was brutal. If the new Iraqi Army -- which is mostly Shiite -- begins doing the same to minority Sunnis, it could turn into a minor genocide. Even if it doesn't, their approach is likely to be far messier, brutal and corrosive to democracy than anything we could possibly condone.

Add this to the list of questions that need to be answered as we "stay the course": What can we expect from the new Iraqi Army? At what point do we say, "we've done all we can"?

terrorism, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Lebanese ceasefire firms up

As Israel races to destroy Hezbollah arms caches, a thousand Italian peacekeepers arrive in Lebanon. On the other side of the Middle East, Kofi Annan is asking Iran to end military support for Hezbollah and compromise on its nuclear program.

I'm not holding my breath on the last two, but they can't hurt.

Annan, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, politics, midtopia

Self-inflicted stupidity

I'm not a big fan of Mike Hatch. But if Matt Entenza hadn't already dropped out of the race for attorney general, I'd be suggesting he do so after this latest revelation.

This summer, when the allegation resurfaced, Entenza said he paid only a "couple of hundred dollars" for his research on Hatch. He said some research the firm conducted, including an investigation of a Hatch parking ticket, went beyond anything he authorized.

On Friday, Entenza filed an amended campaign finance report, disclosing that he paid the $40,000 to Gragert Research, the Chicago company that conducted the research.

In a four-paragraph statement, Entenza apologized to Minnesotans for not being forthcoming.

"I made a mistake in the handling and the release of information to the public regarding the research," he said, "and I apologize for that mistake and take full responsibility. … Once the research became public, I should have been more forthcoming and open about it. For that, I am very sorry."

I actually kind of like Entenza, but he's pulled some boneheaded stuff this year.

Entenza, Minnesota, politics, midtopia

The situation in Iraq

I don't even know what to say about this sort of thing anymore. It's all been said.

Sectarian violence is spreading in
Iraq and the security problems have become more complex than at any time since the U.S. invasion in 2003, a Pentagon report said Friday.

In a notably gloomy report to Congress, the Pentagon reported that illegal militias have become more entrenched, especially in Baghdad neighborhoods where they are seen as providers of both security and basic social services.

The administration says it's doing fine. But Harry Reid is right when he says that Bush et al are "increasingly disconnected from the facts on the ground." And I still can't get over the bizarre sight of Donald Rumsfeld arguing that more troops mean more security -- after three years of saying and doing the opposite.

The Labor Day weekend couldn't have arrived at a better time.

Pentagon, security, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Syria promises to stop weapon shipments

I wouldn't take their word on this, but if they follow through it would be a positive development.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday that Syria has pledged to step up border patrols and work with the Lebanese army to stop the flow of weapons to Hezbollah.

Annan also said that he had asked Syrian President Bashar Assad to use his nation's influence to help win the release of three Israeli soldiers held by Lebanese and Palestinian militants allied with Damascus.

According to Annan, Assad said at a meeting in Damascus that Syria will boost the number of its guards along the Lebanon-Syria border and establish joint patrols with the Lebanese army "where possible."

The impetus for this agreement was Israel's insistence that the UN patrol the border with Syria in order to stop weapons from crossing -- something Syria saw as insulting.

Whether this is just words to stave off a UN presence, or a serious commitment by Syria, only time will tell.

Annan, Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, politics, midtopia

And the leaker is...

...Richard Armitage.

Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was the source who revealed the identity of CIA officer Valerie Plame to syndicated columnist Robert Novak in 2003, touching off a federal investigation, two sources familiar with Armitage's role tell CNN.

The sources said Armitage revealed Plame's role at the CIA almost inadvertently in a casual conversation with Novak, and it is not clear if he knew her identity was classified at the time.

So what does this mean?

Well, it does lighten the accusations levied at the Bush administration, namely that they revealed Plame's identity in order to discredit her husband. Armitage is an unlikely avenue for a Bush administration smear campaign, since he was a critic of the decision to invade Iraq.

But it doesn't appear to change some fundamental facts.

Cheney did ask Libby to find out about Plame's role in her husband's trip. That inquiry is why Armitage knew Plame's identity. Then, once Novak began asking questions, both Libby and Rove were only too happy to discuss the situation with reporters. And then tried to hide that fact later.

Nor does this directly change the basis for the charges against Libby: that he lied about his contacts with reporters.

Nor does it change the fact that a CIA agent's identity was revealed, however inadvertently.

Still, the likelihood that there was a crime committed here seems remote. If Libby had nothing to cover up, the cover-up charges make little sense.

It appears that what you have here is a bunch of senior officials being surprisingly careless with what they ought to have suspected was sensitive information, then trying to hide their actions; and the irony that Cheney's inquiry is what started the ball rolling on a scandal that roiled the White House for years. Incompetence and cowardice, yes, but not criminal intent.

Whether the Libby case should go to trial or be dropped depends on the basis for the charges. If they are independent of the Armitage revelation -- in other words, if Libby really did lie on the stand -- then he should be charged. But the prosecution will have to demonstrate that Libby had some sort of motive for doing so.

Armitage, Libby, Plame, politics, midtopia

Polls and a grain of salt

The New York Times has produced a nice primer on the strengths and weaknesses of polls, and how to read them with a skeptical eye in order to draw insights while rejecting spurious data.

The main lessons: Look at the size and makeup of the sample and how it was selected; beware of attributing much significance to subsamples, most of which are too small to be valid; know what "margin of error" means; and look at how the questions were phrased.

As well roll into the election season, you will hear myriad polls quoted supporting one side or the other. A good rule of thumb is to treat polls the way you should treat horoscopes: "for entertainment purposes only." But if you want to take them seriously, do your homework first.

polls, politics, midtopia

Annan and Hezbollah

Some right-wing enthusiasts have accused the United Nations of being pro-Hezbollah and anti-Israel. Aspects of that criticism have merit: The UN has done little to curb Hezbollah's activities in Lebanon. And who can forget the abduction of three Israeli soldiers in 2000 -- an abduction that may have been aided by bribed Indian peacekeepers, and the investigation of which was flawed?

I think they miss the point. Reining in Hezbollah was outside both the mandate and the capabilities of the lightly-armed UN observers; trying to do so would at a minimum have compromised their neutrality, upon which their presence in Lebanon depended.

As for the 2000 incident, The UN is a self-protective bureaucracy with generally weak institutional oversight. As such there will almost inevitably be corruption, and the UN will never be good at admitting mistakes. But there's no evidence that the United Nations itself assisted or condoned the attack.

That said, sometimes things are clearer than that. And Kofi Annan provided one such moment today.

Sitting beside Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, Annan demanded Hezbollah return two captured Israeli soldiers, whose July 12 abduction touched off the 34-day war, and said Israel must lift its air and sea blockade of Lebanon. ...

"It's a fixed menu. ... It's not an a la carte menu where you choose and pick," he said at the end of the first day of his 11-day Mideast swing that will include stops in Iran and Syria, the main backers of Hezbollah.

The demand that Hezbollah release the soldiers had been missing from much of the discussion leading up to and after the ceasefire. It's good that he said it so clearly, in Lebanon, with the Lebanese prime minister sitting next to him.

His words do, however, illustrate the complexity of the situation. He also called for Israel to end its naval blockade -- a blockade that Israel, reasonably, refuses to call off until the UN force is in place. And he once again reiterate that the UN force will not disarm Hezbollah, placing that responsibility squarely on Lebanon -- which has already indicated it will not do so.

Annan is correct not to want peacekeepers drawn into the conflict by attempting to disarm one side when Lebanon is unwilling to do so. Lebanon, besides having conflicting feelings regarding Hezbollah, faces the practical problem that any attempt at forced disarmament would likely fail, and fail bloodily.

The New York Times had a piece this weekend describing the dilemma. Disarmament is not a tactic; it's the end result of a political and diplomatic process. Unless a force has been thoroughly broken and defeated, it can only be disarmed with its consent -- and such consent only comes when that force comes to believe that it can gain more by laying down its arms. There's an element of hardball to the process -- the negative threat of military action. But barring the application of overwhelming force -- which neither the UN nor Lebanon is able or willing to do -- Hezbollah will not be disarmed at gunpoint.

So we have a ceasefire. We have Lebanon taking responsibility for the south. We have Hezbollah under pressure to keep its weapons out of sight and to release the captured Israelis. We have the parties trying to adjust the political reality so that Hezbollah is forced into a corner where disarmament becomes an appealing option.

On the Israeli side, there's the carrot/stick of a permanent peace and agreed-upon border with Lebanon, which might then stop providing a haven to anti-Israeli elements.

It's not clear what will come out of this situation, a situation so deeply dissatisfying to all involved. But there is reason to hope. And for now, with the guns silent, it's enough.

Annan, UN, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel, politics, midtopia

Iranian brinksmanship

So over the weekend, Iran got frisky.

First, they called attention to the fact that they're building a heavy-water reactor.

Then, they test-fired a submarine-launched anti-shipping missile.

Neither of these are major events in and of themselves. The reactor move isn't helpful, but its far from complete and only a step in the nuclear process. And the missile sounds like more hype than major capacity. Even in the unlikely event that the missile is all it's cracked up to be, there's a big gap between being able to build a nuclear bomb and being able to miniaturize it and make it robust enough to form a reliable missile warhead.

Consider it, instead, one more splash of paint in the target Iran is painting on itself. A target that Israel, for one, appears to be preparing to hit if necessary.

Take that last link with a grain of salt. It's the Washington Times, after all. But they name their sources, and Israel would be stupid not to be developing some kind of contingency plan for dealing with a nuclear Iran. They hit Iraq's Osirek reactor back in 1981; there's no particular reason to think they'll be shy about doing the same to Iran.

Hmmm... maybe that prediction about an imminent nuclear war isn't so nutty after all.

nuclear, Israel, Iran, politics, midtopia

Rumsfeld's brain

Donald Rumsfeld wanted to invade Iraq with 50,000 troops and has steadfastly refused to deploy enough troops to quell the violence there.

So what to make of this?

The presence of several thousand extra U.S. troops in Baghdad in recent weeks showed that sectarian violence can be quelled by force of arms. But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said the gains will be lost unless the Iraqi government reconciles rival religious sects.

"There ... is no question but that you can go in and clear out an area and achieve a reduction in violence, and the test is not that," Rumsfeld told reporters in a joint appearance Friday at the Pentagon with Iraqi Deputy President Adil Al-Mahdi.

"The test is what happens thereafter. And the important thing is for the Iraqi government to achieve success with respect to its reconciliation process," he said. "It's important that they deal with the militia issue."

So let me get this straight. More troops actually does equal more security? And so, as Iraq has spiraled more and more out of control, we've refused to send more troops because.... why? Because what's more important is the reconciliation process, as if that's supposed to take hold while Sunnis and Shiites are killing each other due to an inadequate security presence.

He's right that a reconciliation process is the only way to achieve long-term stability. But he just blithely ignores that short-term stability is needed to get the reconciliation process started.

Further, Rumsfeld is taking credit for the local success of a strategy that he and the administration have fought against, tooth and nail, since the Iraq invasion was nothing but a gleam in their neocon eyes. A strategy that everyone with any experience in peacekeeping was practically screaming at them to adopt.

And now not only does he brag on the success in Baghdad, but he point-blank refuses to draw the larger lesson.

Why does this guy still have his job?

Rumsfeld, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Nuclear war predicted for Sept. 12

You know, it's bad enough that my birthday falls the day after Sept. 11; talk about a buzzkiller.

Now there's this:

Yisrayl Hawkins, well known Bible scholar and author, reports that the Bible predicts the exact date and the location that nuclear war will begin. Hawkins states that the current crisis in the Middle East will go nuclear on September 12, 2006 in the area around the Euphrates River. Calling upon his 50 years of biblical research, Hawkins correlates numerous Bible prophecies with world events to support his claim.

According to Yisrayl Hawkins, the countdown to nuclear war began with the signing of the Oslo accords on the White House lawn on September 13, 1993. He says that the book of Daniel shows that although this is a seven-year agreement, it would take fourteen years to be fully carried out, ending on October 13, 2007. He then cites prophecies in the book of Revelation showing that nuclear war would begin a year, a month and a day prior to the end of the Oslo agreement.

Maybe I'll hold off on painting the house this year.

Update: A pretty funny video report on Mr. Hawkins at World of Wonder.

Yisrayl Hawkins, nuclear war, Armageddon, politics, midtopia

The cracks appear

Iran hoped its nuclear proposal would split the six-nation group that is attempting to tame Iran's nuclear program.

Looks like it might have succeeded.

Russia rejected talk for now of sanctions against
Iran and France warned on Friday against conflict with Tehran, raising doubts whether it will face swift penalties if nuclear work is not halted by an August 31 deadline.

Spain and some other European countries expressed reservations on that score, as well.

If it all works out in the end, then no harm, no foul. And we still have plenty of time to let negotiations work. But failure to enforce a self-imposed deadline only weakens the credibility of the six-nation coalition, and encourages Iran to play even more diplomatic games. Unless something emerges in the next few days to justify backing off from the deadline, this round will go down as an Iranian victory.

nuclear, Iran, politics, midtopia

Lebanon roundup

Lots of stuff happening in Lebanon now.

The French agreed to contribute 2,000 troops to the new, beefed-up UN peacekeeping force, breaking a logjam that had threatened to derail the deployment. European countries eventually pledged to provide a little less than half of the 15,000-man force -- 6,900 troops, including 3,000 Italians and an undisclosed number from other parts of Europe. Another meeting is scheduled for Monday to flesh out the committments.

The bulk of those troops won't arrive for weeks or months, but a small French force of 150 engineers arrived today, and more are expected to trickle in over the coming days.

Israel, meanwhile, is maintaining its blockade of Lebanese ports to prevent resupply of Hezbollah, and wants UN forces to patrol Lebanon's border with Syria for the same reason -- something that Syria objects to. The Lebanese Army, meanwhile, has already deployed troops to that end, trying to close smuggling routes across the Syrian border.

Delays and such aside, the situation continues to look promising. The ceasefire is holding, Lebanon is taking responsibility for its borders, the UN force is developing. ... so far, so good.

Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, politics, midtopia

Iranian proposal draws more fire

The West looks likely to reject the recent Iranian nuclear proposal because it doesn't mention suspending uranium enrichment.

The diplomats variously described the reaction to the Iranian reply in the capitals of the six powers as disappointed and even angry because of the lack of response to the main demand — a freeze on enrichment, which can be used to generate energy but also to make the fissile core of nuclear warheads.

The Iranians had to know that would be the response from the four Western powers. What remains to be seen is whether they will retain support from Russia and China -- or whether those two countries are sufficiently disappointed to let sanctions or some other censure proceed.

nuclear, Iran, politics, midtopia

Not 12 planets; just 8

Speaking of numbers, the members of the International Astronomical Union have rejected a proposal by the union's leadership to expand the definition of planet, and instead have decided to kick Pluto out of the "planet" class, reducing the official number of planets in our solar system to eight.

Much-maligned Pluto doesn’t make the grade under the new rules for a planet: “a celestial body that is in orbit around the sun, has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a ... nearly round shape, and has cleared the neighborhood around its orbit.”

Pluto is automatically disqualified because its oblong orbit overlaps with Neptune’s.

Instead, it will be reclassified in a new category of “dwarf planets,” similar to what long have been termed “minor planets.” The definition also lays out a third class of lesser objects that orbit the sun — “small solar system bodies,” a term that will apply to numerous asteroids, comets and other natural satellites.

At least we have a definition. And while it would be neat to have more planets, I mentioned in my previous post that the leadership's proposed definition was pretty loose -- covering objects as small as 250 miles in diameter -- and would probably cover all sorts of as-yet-undiscovered space debris. So this more exacting standard does a nice job of keeping things manageable.

My only regret is that the old system would have designated Pluto-Charon as a double-planet -- two planets orbiting each other. That would have been cool.

solar system, Pluto, planets, politics, midtopia

A nice round number

In the next few minutes Midtopia should record its 10,000th visitor. Not too bad for a blog that launched less than 6 months ago. I've enjoyed publishing it, and thanks to everyone who makes Midtopia a part of their day.

politics, midtopia

U.S. unimpressed by Iranian proposal

Only scant details of the Iranian nuke proposal are emerging, but there don't appear to be any real surprises. Iran refuses to give up its enrichment capability, The U.S. is unimpressed, and Russia and China are pushing for further negotiations.

The real test is whether Iran will successfully split the six-nation coalition, a question that will be answered on Aug. 31. Expect negotiations to be extended in one form or the other, as Europe and the United States try to keep pressure on Iran while keeping Russia and China on board.

nuclear, Iran, politics, midtopia

Gutknecht gets on the ballot

Rep. Gil Gutknecht will be on the ballot after all, avoiding what would have been an embarassing way to lose re-election.

That's good for him -- although his race has just been upgraded to one of the most competitive in the country. He's got his work cut out for him.

But what about Brian Smith, the Independence Party candidate I wrote about in the same post? He's petitioned the court to be allowed on the ballot, but there's been no decision yet.

They both deserve to get on. Bureaucratic snafus are not sufficient reason to deny voters a choice at the polls.

Brian Smith, Gutknecht, Minnesota, politics, midtopia

Marines to recall troops to active duty

Up to 2,500 of them, the first such callback in the Iraq war.

Anyone out there still claim that our military isn't being stretched thin by Iraq?

Anyone out there still think it was a good idea to reject proposals to expand the Army by a couple of divisions?

Anyone out there think it's a good idea that Bush's budget proposal calls for cutting 30,000 Army soldiers next year?

Anyone out there think this administration is handling this in a responsible manner?

Because I don't.

military, Iraq, Bush, politics, midtopia

Iran finally responds....

And we'll have to wait and see what they said, because the parties involved aren't saying.

But since Iran has publicly vowed not to give up its enrichment program -- the main purpose of the six-nation proposal -- it doesn't seem likely that their offer, whatever it is, will be acceptable.

Iran recently prevented UN inspectors from examining its main nuclear site at Natanz, a violation of its Nonproliferation Treaty responsibilities. Which would suggest that it is not seriously interested in compromising on the program.

And given that it has taken them weeks and weeks to reply to the Western proposal, it seems apparent that they're content to simply stall and play for time and put off a confrontation as long as possible. It plays well domestically and in certain world quarters, and it lets them pursue the program as far as possible before they have to make a hard decision or face retaliation.

Luckily they're a long ways away from having the bomb. So, irritating as stalling tactics can be, patience is called for. We need to make clear that we prefer to resolve this diplomatically -- but we will take military steps if that is what the situation requires.

And we should identify interim steps to ratchet up the pressure on Iran, like targeted sanctions and inspection demands.

The first decision facing the six-nation coalition is what to do when Aug. 31 rolls around -- the deadline the group gave for Iran to agree to the proposal or face sanctions. Iran clearly is betting that either the coalition is bluffing, or that its proposal will split the coalition and prevent it from acting if the deadline passes.

What they do, and whether I agree with it, will depend on the content of the Iranian proposal. So, once again, we wait.

nuclear, Iran, politics, midtopia

I swear, conspiracy theorists are dumb as posts

Here's the latest one: Did you know that the actual U.S. military death toll in Iraq is 12,000?

We have received copies of manifests from the MATS that show far more bodies shipped into Dover AFP than are reported officially. The actual death toll is in excess of 10,000. (See the official records at the end of this piece.)... When our research is complete, and watertight, we will publish the results along with the sources

Yeah, I'm holding my breath.

The government gets away with these huge lies because they claim, falsely, that only soldiers actually killed on the ground in Iraq are reported. The dying and critically wounded are listed as en route to military hospitals outside of the country and not reported on the daily postings. Anyone who dies just as the transport takes off from the Baghdad airport is not listed and neither are those who die in the US military hospitals.

This claim is itself false.

It's true that injuries and deaths caused by non-hostile action -- a soldier getting run over by a truck in his convoy, for instance -- aren't counted as combat casualties.

The reasoning for that is that accidents happen, war or no war, and it's wrong to attribute a death to a given war simply because it happened to occur during that war.

That rationale isn't perfect: Operations in a war zone are probably inherently more risky than the same operation in peacetime, in a well-controlled domestic environment. So there are likely to be more accidents in Iraq than the unit would have experienced back home.

But you have to draw the line somewhere, and the overall reasoning is sound. Accidents are a separate category from KIA and WIA.

And even though they're not counted as combat deaths, they are counted. Noncombat deaths are listed on the weekly report under a separate column.

The only category that isn't reported in any coherent way is soldiers who are injured in non-combat situations. Estimates put that number at around 15,000, for what it's worth.

Another category that isn't counted is psychiatric issues that manifest themselves after a soldier leaves Iraq. So a soldier that kills himself after arriving back home doesn't count against the Iraq total. That will tend to understate the total human toll of Iraq, but again the basis is reasonable: how is the military supposed to determine that an action taken after leaving Iraq is related to Iraq? And to what degree? How much time and effort should it put into such classifications?

So one can plausibly argue that the true human toll of Iraq is not reflected in the official casualty figures. But to claim the Pentagon is hiding 8,000 deaths is ludicrous. It doesn't matter what you think about what Bush would be willing to do; it's physically impossible.

If there were 8,000 uncounted deaths, that would mean an average of 160 families per state wondering why their kid's name never appeared in the newspaper as a war casualty.

In addition, these soldiers come from units. The soldiers live together at home as well as fight together abroad. They know each other; the families hang out. They talk. If a given unit lost 20 people but only 5 were listed as official casualties, everyone would know. For your conspiracy to work, EVERYONE in the unit, their families, friends and up and down the chain of command would have to be in on the secret. Which just isn't going to happen.

When constructing conspiracy theories, maybe these folks should construct ones that are actually plausible.

casualties, conspiracy theories, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Are large sums of cash illegal?

Apparently, yes.

A federal appeals court ruled yesterday that if a motorist is carrying large sums of money, it is automatically subject to confiscation. In the case entitled, "United States of America v. $124,700 in U.S. Currency," the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit took that amount of cash away from Emiliano Gomez Gonzolez, a man with a "lack of significant criminal history" neither accused nor convicted of any crime.

Clearly, the details are important here. But shouldn't the money -- or at least the owner -- be actually connected to a crime before police can seize his property?

crime, midtopia

More excessive secrecy

In example #2,912 of how the Bush administration has a heard time learning:

The Bush administration has begun designating as secret some information that the government long provided even to its enemy the former Soviet Union: the numbers of strategic weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal during the Cold War.

The Pentagon and the Department of Energy are treating as national security secrets the historical totals of Minuteman, Titan II and other missiles, blacking out the information on previously public documents, according to a new report by the National Security Archive. The archive is a nonprofit research library housed at George Washington University.

"It would be difficult to find more dramatic examples of unjustifiable secrecy than these decisions to classify the numbers of U.S. strategic weapons," wrote William Burr, a senior analyst at the archive who compiled the report. " . . . The Pentagon is now trying to keep secret numbers of strategic weapons that have never been classified before."

Aargh! Stop it!

National Security Archive, Bush, secrecy, politics, midtopia

As the pundits turn, insiders seek to sway Bush

A couple of interesting developments.

Publicly, conservative pundits are rounding on Bush with increasing ferocity.

For 10 minutes, the talk show host grilled his guests about whether "George Bush's mental weakness is damaging America's credibility at home and abroad." For 10 minutes, the caption across the bottom of the television screen read, "IS BUSH AN 'IDIOT'?"

But the host was no liberal media elitist. It was Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman turned MSNBC political pundit. And his answer to the captioned question was hardly "no." While other presidents have been called stupid, Scarborough said: "I think George Bush is in a league by himself. I don't think he has the intellectual depth as these other people."

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, James Baker leads a rescue effort:

Amid the highly charged political infighting in Washington over what to do in Iraq, you might be excused for not noticing that a bipartisan commission quietly started work last spring with a mandate to help the Bush administration rethink its policy toward the war. Of course, anything labeled "bipartisan commission" seems almost guaranteed to be ignored by a highly partisan White House that is notoriously hostile to outside advice and famously devoted to "staying the course." But what makes this particular commission hard to dismiss is that it is led by perhaps the one man who might be able to break through the tight phalanx of senior officials who advise the president and filter his information. That person is the former secretary of state, Republican insider, and consigliere of the Bush family, James A. Baker III.

Since March, Baker, backed by a team of experienced national-security hands, has been busily at work trying to devise a fresh set of policies to help the president chart a new course in--or, perhaps, to get the hell out of--Iraq. But as with all things involving James Baker, there's a deeper political agenda at work as well. "Baker is primarily motivated by his desire to avoid a war at home--that things will fall apart not on the battlefield but at home. So he wants a ceasefire in American politics," a member of one of the commission's working groups told me. Specifically, he said, if the Democrats win back one or both houses of Congress in November, they would unleash a series of investigative hearings on Iraq, the war on terrorism, and civil liberties that could fatally weaken the administration and remove the last props of political support for the war, setting the stage for a potential Republican electoral disaster in 2008. "I guess there are people in the [Republican] party, on the Hill and in the White House, who see a political train wreck coming, and they've called in Baker to try to reroute the train."

I wish Baker well; I respect the deft foreign-policy hand of Bush the Elder, and Lord knows someone needs to break through the barriers surrounding this administration and convince them that their chosen strategy isn't working.

If Bush persists on his current course, it would seem to be only a matter of time before the Republican-led Congress tosses him overboard in order to save their own skins in November -- while non-Congressional conservatives and other party operatives throw him overboard in order to strengthen their hand for 2008. The next two years may feature Bush being used as a whipping boy not just by the left but also by the right, as they look past him and try to figure out a way to detach the anchors of his presence from their political ambitions.

Iraq, Baker, Bush, politics, midtopia

Relearning expensive lessons

One thing that bothered me about the Israeli campaign in Lebanon was the clear belief that they could win largely through the use of airpower. I'd end up talking to myself or yelling at the television: "Don't you guys read history books?!?"

I'm an ex-tanker, and some of my best friends were groundpounders, so maybe I'm biased. But if there's one thing that's clear from reading military history, it's that airpower alone does not win wars -- however often the Air Force commanders make that argument, and however enticing the idea is to a casualty-wary politician.

I missed this article when it first came out, but it sums up the situation very nicely.

Military historians have a name for the logic behind Israel's military campaign in Lebanon. It's called the "strategic bombing fallacy." Almost since the dawn of the age of military air power, strategists have been tempted by the prospect that the bombing of "strategic" targets such as infrastructure and transportation hubs could inflict such pain on a population that it would turn against its leaders and get them to surrender or compromise.

Unfortunately -- as the United States itself discovered during World War II and Vietnam, to cite just two examples -- strategic bombing has almost never worked. Far from bringing about the intended softening of the opposition, bombing tends to rally people behind their own leaders and cause them to dig in against outsiders who, whatever the justification, are destroying their homeland.

What's surprising is that the above fallacy is very well known -- or should be to anyone who pays attention to military history. It astonishes me that an organization as practical and experienced as the Israeli military would fall for such a thing.

Is it me, or is the entire world suffering from a giant case of the ignorant stupids?

airpower, Lebanon, Israel, politics, midtopia

A troubled Experiment

One of my earliest posts, back in March, was about the troubles at the Center for the American Experiment here in the Twin Cities. Basically, switching from "conservative think tank" to "partisan propaganda-spewing electoral machine" was a hugely expensive failure.

Now Minnesota Monthly magazine has an in-depth exploration of what happened, and where the Center is going now -- mostly, adopting a less-strident tone and seeking to rebuild its mindshare as it tries to pay off more than $300,000 in debts.

I respected the previous incarnation of the CAE. I despised the Meeks version. Let's hope the Center's founder, Mitch Pearlstein, can resurrect the good and leave the partisan toxic waste behind.

Meeks, Pearlstein, Minnesota, politics, midtopia