Lame ducks all around

The lame-duck Congress has convened for the post-election session, where it will try to get some business done before the Democrats take over the new Congress in January. But the more interesting action turns on who will lead both parties in the new Congress.

The lame-duck President, meanwhile, has sent that Congress a wish list that would seem to contradict his calls for bipartisan consensus, inasmuch as they represent an effort to force through controversial measures before the Democrats take over.

The president's top priorities are a measure to legalize his once-secret warrantless eavesdropping program, the extension of his tax cuts and Senate confirmation of John Bolton to be United Nations ambassador and, the least controversial item, Senate backing of Robert Gates to succeed embattled Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

His chances of success are slim to none, unless outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist changes some ground rules to allow simple majority votes in situations that currently require more than that. Even that would be chancy, and it would probably be foolish for Republicans to try it in the face of voter anger. Whether you think Democrats earned a mandate or not on Nov. 7, trying to push something through now because you don't think it would pass in the newly elected Congress would go very badly for the GOP if they have misread the public mood.

But it's rather telling that Bush says one thing when he's vulnerable, and another when he holds the power. One would have thought that Bush would have refrained from the attempt simply to avoid poisoning relations with the Congress he'll have to deal with for the last two years of his term. Apparently not.

Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised. As outgoing GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee recounts, the last time the electorate was closely divided, the Bush administration didn't exactly reach across the divide.

Back in December 2000, after one of the closest elections in our nation’s history, Vice President-elect Dick Cheney was the guest at a weekly lunch meeting of a small group of centrist Republicans. Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and I were honored to have the opportunity to visit with him on the eve of a session of Congress in which, because of Republican defeats, the Senate would be evenly divided at 50-50.

As we sat in Senator Specter’s cozy hideaway office and discussed the coming session, I was startled to hear the vice president dismiss suggestions of compromise and instead emphasize an aggressively partisan agenda that included significant tax cuts, the abandonment of international agreements and a muscular, unilateral foreign policy.

I was incredulous. Instead of a new atmosphere of cooperation and civility which, after all, had been the promise of the Bush-Cheney campaign, we seemed ready to return to the poisonous partisanship that marked the Republican-Congress — Clinton White House years.

Of course, bipartisanship is a two-way street, and it remains to be seen how Democrats will handle their end of the bargain. For now, they're saying all the right things. And other prominent Democrats, like Leon Panetta, are going beyond pleasantries.

The legislative work can begin on areas where there is likely consensus: immigration reform, lobbying and ethics reform, and education with the reauthorization of No Child Left Behind.

If that works, Congress and the administration can move on to negotiate tougher issues like establishing long-term budget discipline, expanding energy alternatives, fixing the prescription drug benefit and increasing the minimum wage.

And, finally, on the war in Iraq, despite the bitter differences, both the Democrats and the president face the same brutal reality. We need a new strategy to stabilize Iraq so that our troops can begin to come home without leaving a disaster behind. The president took an important step by replacing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld with Robert Gates. The Iraq Study Group led by James Baker and Lee Hamilton, of which I am a member, will soon make its recommendations, which we hope will provide the beginning of a unified strategy.

Panetta makes an important argument: that the Baker Report will be a starting point, not an ending point. And it remains to be seen whether Bush can participate constructively in the winding down of his Iraq adventure, and whether Democrats can rein in their more leftist members to arrive at a resolution that addresses U.S. national interests. That means getting out of Iraq sooner rather than later so we can refocus attention on actual terrorists -- but not so fast that we jeopardize our interests, or fail to fulfill our ethical obligation to the Iraqi people.

The fate of both parties in 2008 rest on how they rise to this challenge.

politics, midtopia

Meanwhile, over at the RNC....

Republicans are asking defeated Maryland senatorial candidate Michael Steele to replace outgoing RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman.

He'd be a good choice: a popular, smart moderate from a blue state who, by virtue of his skin color, would lend built-in credibility to Republican efforts to continue Mehlman's strategy of reaching out to blacks. And it would give him a high-profile role in the party, exactly what I said was needed a few days ago.

Apparently Karl Rove would prefer he accept an Cabinet post instead. So Steele lands on his feet no matter what. And good for him.

RNC, Mehlman, Steele, politics, midtopia

Howard Dean: Fool or genius?

It depends who you ask.

Some disgruntled Democrats want to replace him with Harold Ford, arguing that Dean did poorly at fundraising, and that his "50 state" strategy cost them several additional seats.

Elsewhere, though, he's being hailed as a genius. Not only did the Democrats not need his help to win, but his efforts to build a truly national grassroots operation paid dividends in several close races, as well as forcing Republicans to defend seats they might not have otherwise.

Me, I think the detractors need to get some perspective. The lackadaisical fundraising is a legitimate gripe. But Dean is right that the party needs to rebuild nationally, and not simply write off large swathes of the country as GOP strongholds. And in hindsight he was right to remain focused on that, instead of throwing all his resources into a mid-term election push that turned out not to need his help.

Dean now has a running start and two years to build a fully functional network for the 2008 presidential elections, with the fundraising and policy help of a Democratic Congress. That's a huge thing. Dean was right; now Democrats would be smart to leave the man alone to do his job.

DNC, Howard Dean, politics, midtopia

Gerrymandering killed the GOP

Because they overreached, diluting their strength in key districts in an attempt to maximize the number of GOP-leaning districts.

In Florida, meanwhile, state lawmakers had shifted some Republican voters from the secure district of former Rep. Mark Foley in an attempt to shore up the re-election chances of Rep. Clay Shaw without risking the Foley seat. Instead, Democrats took both. In Texas, former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's decision to transfer thousands of stalwart Republican voters from his district in 2004 to boost a neighboring seat heightened the burden on the write-in candidate trying to hold Mr. DeLay's seat. She lost it.

"The trade-off in redistricting is between safety and maximizing the numbers," says Alan I. Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta. "You can't do both,"

The article discusses how union strategists and MoveOn realized what the GOP did not, and began targeting districts that had been weakened by the gerrymandering. On Election Day, Democrats took many of them.

I despise gerrymandering, of course, so this story serves as both poetic justice and a warning. If Democrats control the state legislatures in 2010, they'll be tempted to gerrymander to their own benefit. While I hope that objective boundary-drawing criteria are in place by then, I also hope that Democrats learn from the GOP's mistakes and are wary about pushing their advantage to the limit. Not only is democracy hurt by such shenanigans -- they could end up shooting themselves in the foot.

gerrymandering, politics, midtopia

Party switchers?

There's a lot of talk about whether Joe Lieberman or Bernie Sanders will switch from independent to one of the other parties. Sanders could turn Democrat; Lieberman could go either way, though he has repeatedly said he'll caucus with the Democrats.

But what about moderate Republicans?

After the 1994 takeover by Republicans, two Senate Democrats jumped ship: Ben Nighthorse Campbell and Richard Shelby. So there's a precedent for it.

And Lincoln Chafee is openly talking about it. He's irrelevant until he gets elected again, but some of his comments are illuminating.

When asked whether he felt that his loss may have helped the country by switching control of power in Congress, he replied: "To be honest, yes."

"The people have spoken all across America. They want the Democrats and Republicans to work together," Chafee added. "I think the president now is going to have to talk to the Democrats. I think that's going to be good for America."

A lifelong Republican who succeeded his father, the late John Chafee, in the U.S. Senate, Chafee said he waged a lonely campaign to try to bring the party to the middle. He described attending weekly Thursday lunches with fellow Republican senators and standing up to argue his point of view, often alone.

"There were times walking into my caucus room where it wasn't fun," he said.

Chafee said he stuck with the party in large part because it allowed him to bring federal dollars home to Rhode Island.

So: Any bets on who among the Republicans might switch?

My money is on the two Maine senators, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe. Both moderates, both from heavily Democratic states.

Any other contenders?

politics, midtopia

Blue sky thoughts

It's late, so I may not be thinking too clearly, but I've been kicking around a couple of admittedly radical ideas over the last few weeks, and this seems like a good time to throw them out there and see what people think.

They're half-formed, at best. So be gentle.

Minimum wage: Most discussions of minimum wage divide over the economic effects (more money to the poor vs. fewer jobs) or portray it as a social justice issue. But what about the minimum wage's effect on illegal immigration? Wouldn't raising the minimum wage help in that regard?

This idea is based on the assumption that while a lot of employers might be willing to overlook spotty documentation, far fewer are willing to actually violate wage laws. So if they have to pay more, the incentive to hire illegals go down -- since lower wages is one of the primary incentives for doing so.

Given a choice between paying illegal aliens $7 an hour and paying Americans $7 an hour, most employers will choose the latter.

This wouldn't affect employers who are already breaking wage laws by paying illegal immigrants under the table, but it might have an effect on employers who knowingly hire aliens with forged documentation.

Campaign contributions: What if you allowed donations, but they had to be anonymous? Say, earmarked for particular candidates but sent to a central clearinghouse that made monthly or quarterly payments to candidates?

That way politicians wouldn't know who was donating to them, or how much. Sure, contributors could say "I gave this much", but there'd be no way to prove it because the clearinghouse would send an aggregate check, not break it down by donation.

On the downside, the rest of us wouldn't know who was contributing, like we do now, and the Center for Responsive Politics would go out of business. But if nobody knows, I'm fine with that. And it might reduce the overall amount of such donations, thus reducing the influence of money on elections and policy.

Fire away!

campaign finance, minimum wage, immigration, politics, midtopia

150,000 Iraqi dead?

That's what Iraq's health minister says. It's three times most other estimates, but about a quarter of the Lancet estimate that was in the news last month.

The 150,000 figure is something of a back-of-the-envelope calculation:

Health Minister Ali al-Shemari gave his new estimate of 150,000 to reporters during a visit to Vienna, Austria. He later told The Associated Press that he based the figure on an estimate of 100 bodies per day brought to morgues and hospitals — though such a calculation would come out closer to 130,000 in total.

If that figure is close to accurate -- and frankly, it seems reasonable -- then it proves one tragic fact: our meddling in Iraq is killing people at a faster rate than Saddam was.

This is doubly sad, because the only unequivocally good thing to come out of our invasion is that Saddam will soon be dancing at the end of a rope. And now it appears that our intervention is doing more harm to Iraq than he did. Iraqis may one day wax nostalgic about the relatively peaceful days under Saddam. Wouldn't it be ironic if we ended up polishing Saddam's hagiography.

Iraq, politics, midtopia

The casualties mount

With George Allen and Conrad Burns conceding defeat, the Democrats now control both houses of Congress.

The repercussions of their victory are still being felt. Besides Donald Rumsfeld resigning, Ken Mehlman is quitting as head of the Republican National Committee and it looks like John Bolton will fail to get confirmed as UN Ambassador.

Taking the Senate completely changes the balance of power. Controlling the House would have been big in its own right, allowing Democrats to advance their own proposals and quash Republican efforts. Owning the Senate magnifies that power, of course, allowing them to actually pass legislation and send it to the president's desk. But the real biggie is a power unique to the Senate: confirmation of presidential appointees. With Democrats taking the Senate, Bolton was finished. And now the Dems will be able to put pressure on Bush's judicial nominees for the final two years of his term.

What will it mean? That depends on how Bush, Republicans and Democrats proceed. In a world of rational actors they would horse-trade, swapping confirmation of Bush judges for passage of Dem legislation, while Bush wields a veto threat to mold that legislation as well as win passage of bills sought by the Republican minority.

In a world of egos, stubbornness, partisanship and payback, the Dems will marginalize the GOP the way the GOP marginalized Dems, the GOP minority will pull out all the obstructionist stops they used to decry and Bush and the Democrats will take turns quashing each others' initiatives.

The problem here is trust. Bush has a history of talking a good game about "uniting" and "reaching out", but his definition of that has generally been "let's talk nice while doing things my way." His effort to get Bolton confirmed before the Dems take over in January doesn't bode well in that regard. Both parties have a history of obstructing as the minority and of keeping the other party down as a majority. The Republican legislative "majority of the majority" rule -- only bills supported by a majority of Republicans would be sent to the floor for a vote -- was a particularly obnoxious version of the latter, essentially allowing a fourth of Congress to control the legislative agenda.

The Democrats, for their part, must be sorely tempted to launch dozens of investigations, reject all Bush nominees, gut every Republican legislative achievement and otherwise seek revenge.

I suspect it is only a matter of time before Congress and the White House are yelling at each other rather than speaking, and I cynically await the first Republican filibuster and the first expression of Democratic outrage at such obstructionist tactics.

But for now, let's give them the benefit of the doubt. In the "control both houses" link above, Democratic leaders appear to be sober and realistic about the situation.

"Our joy today will vanish if we can't produce for the American people," said Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Senate Democratic campaign committee....

In reaching out to Republicans, though, Democrats pointedly noted that Republicans had not shown them the same consideration.

"They've set a bad example in not working with us," Reid said. "We're not following that example."

These are good rhetorical starts. And they've got two months to work out some deals before the new session begins. An early test for Bush will be the judicial nominees he chooses to send over; will he send moderates, or will he continue to nominate hard-line conservatives? An early test for Democrats will be the rules and legislative priorities they establish. Will they include Republicans, or marginalize them?

Time will tell.

politics, midtopia

Roll call

Just noting some races that were in the news for various reasons:

Democrats took every scandal seat: those once held by Tom DeLay, Mark Foley and Bob Ney. They'll probably have to work hard to keep those seats, but for now they've got them.

GOP Rep. Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania, he of the "I didn't strangle my mistress" defense, lost. So did GOP Rep. Curt Weldon, who was the subject of a corruption probe. Rep. John Sweeney (R-N.Y.) lost after reports that he roughed up his wife in 2005.

Partisan secretaries of state fared poorly, too. Katherine Harris got obliterated in her quest for a Senate seat in Florida, and Ken Blackwell never came close to getting the keys to the Ohio governor's mansion.

On the other side, both Dennis Hastert and Tom Reynolds survived their links to the Foley affair.

Update: Hastert may have kept his seat, but he won't try to keep his leadership post.

politics, midtopia

Rumsfeld steps down?

Just heard a report that Rumsfeld will be stepping down; Bush to speak later today.

More as it develops.

Update: Bush has confirmed it in a White House press conference. He has named ex-CIA chief Robert Gates as his new nominee, continuing his practice of hiring former Reagan and Bush the Elder hands. But Gates is a member of James Baker's Iraq Study Group, so that's a good sign.

The timing on this is a little strange, because Bush and the GOP would have been better off politically to announce this before the election. And just a week ago, Bush said he wanted Rumsfeld to stay until the end of his presidency.

Bush was asked about that at the press conference, and basically said "I lied to you a week ago because I wasn't ready to announce it."


Rumsfeld, politics, midtopia

Time for IRV

So Democrats take the Minnesota House and sweep all statewide offices.... except for governor. Why?

Because a strong independent candidate siphoned off DFL-leaning voters, costing Mike Hatch a victory.

Good.

I was actually hoping for Hatch to win in a squeaker, because having a DFL governor would have made things easier. But maybe his loss will drive the point home more strongly.

And that point is that the DFL-controlled legislature needs to have instant-runoff voting in place by the 2008 elections.

Why? Well, first off, it's simply the right thing to do. It lets people vote for the candidate they really like without having to worry that doing so will cause their least-favorite candidate to get elected.

But that hasn't persuaded either major party in the past. Fine principles usually come in second to practical politics.

So now's the time to make the case on political grounds.

In Minnesota, serious independent candidates tend to dilute DFL voting strength more than Republican voting strength. That simple fact is proved by the last two elections, in which both Tim Penny and Peter Hutchinson weakened the DFL candidate enough for Pawlenty to win both times with a plurality rather than a majority.

Had IRV been in place, Pawlenty would have lost both times. Simple as that. Had IRV been in place this year, Hatch would have won.

I plan to write the DFL leadership, as well as my own representatives, and make that case. As long as legislative leaders resist IRV, they will continue to see their gubernatorial candidates lose. I will appeal to them to adopt IRV both because it is the right thing to do, and because it provides a tactical advantage to Democrats.

If enough people do that, in 2008 we could have election results that truly reflect the will of the people.

Write your state representative today.

instant-runoff voting, Minnesota, politics, midtopia

In Minnesota, a nearly clean sweep

A pretty good night at Midtopia's campaign headquarters. All of my choices (see sidebar) won except for the governor's race, where Hutchinson split the ticket and let Pawlenty squeak through to re-election.

Tim Walz beating Gil Gutknecht was an intriguing surprise. I didn't mind Gutknecht so much, other than his longstanding support for Bush's Iraq policy. Count him a victim of the national mood.

And the 6th District is sending a nutjob to Congress. That's their right, and it's not like Wetterling was the strongest candidate in the world. But one usually hopes that sanity prevails over looniness. Oh, well; it's only for two years. Maybe Mark Kennedy will reclaim his seat in 2008, or Elwyn Tinklenberg will finally get his chance. Heck, maybe Bachmann will prove to be a reasonable Rep.... sure, and maybe pigs will fly out of my nose.

My overall approach worked, though. Pawlenty keeps his office, but every other statewide office went Democrat, and the Dems took control of the state House while holding on to the state Senate. So Pawlenty will have to do a lot of dealing if he wants to get anything done.

Congratulations to Klobuchar, Ramstad, Bonoff and Benson.

Minnesota, politics, midtopia

Dems fulfill predictions

An amazing night. I was up until about midnight watching the results, but didn't have the time for liveblogging.

First, give credit to the pundits: the general consensus of predictions (including my own) were right on. The Democrats picked up 28 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate (Pennsylvania, Missouri, Rhode Island, Ohio), with 2 Senate seats (Virginia and Montana) hanging in the balance. We may yet see a Democratic majority there.

The Dems also picked up 6 governorships, and now control a majority of those, as well as making serious gains at the statehouse level.

Some random thoughts:

Party makeup: On the one hand, I'm disappointed that the Democratic gains took an especially heavy toll on moderate Republicans. That's to be expected, since swing districts are pretty much by definition going to favor moderates in both parties. Santorum was a good scalp, and several Bush lapdogs went down. But Chafee, Steele and the like are the kind of people I'd like to see remain relevant in Republican circles.

Still, consider the long-term trends. In order to win, Democrats veered toward the center, electing conservative and moderate candidates in several key races. And the darling of the Netroots, Ned Lamont, got stuffed by the far more conservative Joe Lieberman. Nancy Pelosi may be liberal, but she will have to lead a caucus that will be decidedly more centrist than the one it replaces.

And as the Democrats grow more moderate, moderate elected Republicans are growing scarce. That will give conservatives and the religious right even more of a hold on the GOP. Unless they find a way to counter that, Republicans may find themselves ideologically purer but increasingly out of power.

Abortion and stem cells: The South Dakota abortion ban was shot down, showing that draconian restrictions on abortion still lack popular support in most of the country. California rejected a waiting period and parental notification for minors. The Missouri stem cell amendment looks like it will barely pass, which would seem to throw doubt on the theory that the amendment helped McCaskill. Arguably it helped Talent, as pro-life forces turned out to defeat the amendment.

Gay marriage: Arizona shot down a bill that would have outlawed civil unions as well as gay marriage. Five states passed bans on both. Two states outlawed gay marriage but not civil unions, though one of those states -- Colorado -- rejected a separate bill that would have legalized civil unions.

Taxes: South Dakota rejected a proposal to limit property tax increases, a Midwest version of California's Proposition 13 -- which has played havoc with that state's finances. South Carolina approved one. Three states rejected a Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, which would have put strict limits on tax increases. No broad restrictions on taxation power passed.

Eminent domain: Restriction on use of this power, a reaction to the Supreme Court's ruling in the New London case, passed in 9 states, while being rejected in two.

Minimum wage: Proposals to raise the minimum wage and index it to inflation passed in all six states where it was on the ballot.

Other initiatives: Voters in South Dakota soundly rejected proposals to strip judges of legal immunity on their rulings. Arizona approved making English the state's official language.

The picture that emerges is one of a centrist electorate that opposes gay marriage (and appears willing to ban civil unions if the two issues are chained together), but generally supports legal abortion and opposes handcuffing government's ability to raise revenue. Voters also support the social safety net, as reflected in the minimum wage proposals. The one place they want to rein in government power is eminent domain.

The administration: Bush, Rove and Ken Mehlman were required to be cheerleaders leading up to this election, but it's worth pointing out just how wrong they were about how things would turn out. Bush stumping in conservative areas and defending his decisions in Iraq probably hurt more than they helped. It may have helped fire up Bush's base, but that base is at 34 percent and falling, and meanwhile coverage of his speeches helped remind people not only of their opposition to the war, but Bush's refusal to concede mistakes or deal with the reality on the ground.

The big question now is how Bush will deal with a Democratic Congress -- and how that Congress will deal with him. Expect a smattering of investigations, as well as bills restricting the President's ability to authorize torture and eavesdropping. But also expect Bush to use his veto pen more. It comes down to whether Bush can get past his innate stubborness and actually compromise, and whether Democrats can get past thoughts of revenge and actually govern. The next few months should be telling, as they'll set the tone for the next two years.

Independents: We've now got two in the Senate: Lieberman and Bernie Sanders. Both have said they'll caucus with the Democrats, but it will be interesting to see what price they demand -- especially if control of the Senate hinges on their decision. Lieberman will probably get the committee assignments he would have gotten had he run and won as a Democrat; but Sanders will have some interesting negotiations. And the GOP may try to bribe Lieberman if the stakes are high enough. Lieberman has said he won't switch caucuses, but we'll see.

Fraud: While there were hiccups, the voting overall appeared to go smoothly. In part that's because most of the margins were beyond dispute. But I haven't seen any credible claims of widespread fraud -- and to their credit, Republicans don't seem to be raising that particular chant.

Turnout: Turnout seemed to be pretty high across the country, with some areas experiencing percentages normally reserved for presidential elections. This is excellent for all sorts of reasons, but the main one is that it dilutes the influence of money, partisanship and the parties' get-out-the-vote operations. That turnout may end up explaining why the GOP's acknowledged advantage in such operations failed to move the needle yesterday -- enough people were mad enough and motivated enough that it simply swamped such partisan efforts.

Money: A lot of money went into this election. According to Opensecrets.org, Congressional candidates raised a total of more than $1.2 billion and spent about $1 billion of that. A lot more money went into state-level races.

But all that money appeared to have a limited effect this year. In Michigan, the GOP candidate for governor spent $35 million of his own money -- and lost. In Rhode Island, the GOP candidate for Senate spent $7 million out of his own pocket -- and lost. In Congressional races, Republicans outspent Democrats by $27 million -- and lost.

The moral: Money helps. But in a race where the issues are stark and well-known, its influence is limited.

Attack ads: I'm not about to suggest this is a trend, but another thing I noticed about this election is the relative ineffectiveness of the usual negative polemics. Republicans trotted out their usual screeds about "liberal" and "tax and spend" and "negotiates with terrorists", but this time around those ads just seemed shrill and weak, not devastating. The optimist in me would like to think that this year was a wake-up call for voters, who have started to see such tactics for what they are -- long on innuendo, short on substance and accuracy, and doing more damage to the speaker than the target.

That's it for now. More later as I get time.

politics, midtopia

Election Day misbehavior

A certain amount of this happens in every campaign. This post will be updated through the day to list this election cycle's shenanigans. I've already commented on the irregularities in Virginia. So without further ado:

In New Jersey: Vandals chained shut the doors of Republican Senate candidate Tom Kean's campaign headquarters, and broke keys off in the locks.

In Colorado Springs: The headquarters of Democratic House candidate Jay Fawcett was sprayed with chemicals that smell like skunk, making it difficult for workers to do their jobs.

In Kentucky: A poll worker was arrested after choking a voter and throwing him out of the polling place. The two had argued over a judicial election.

In Ohio: Someone broke into a polling station in Columbus overnight, causing it to open late. In southeast Ohio, callers have been falsely telling voters that their precinct had changed. There have also been problems and confusion around the new voter ID requirement.

All in all though, things seem to be going smoothly. Voting is a massive process, involving tens of thousands of precincts and millions of voters. While I'll probably have an impressive list in this post by the end of the evening, nothing so far indicates a major problem.

politics, midtopia

Go vote!

Last post of the night, and I won't be back before the polls open. I may try to do some liveblogging on the election, either here or at Donklephant. But I'm playing single dad for a couple of days, so it depends on the time available and the quality of my Internet connection.

But whatever you do, go vote! Stop on your way to work, or school, or the store. Bring the kids along. That's what I'm going to be doing: after putting my oldest daughter on the school bus, the younger one and I are going to exercise our greatest democratic right before I drop her off at preschool and head to work.

Do what you have to do, but vote. Because it matters. It's not just about who wins; margin counts, too. And the higher the turnout, the more the power of the party bases are diluted, and the more candidates have to consider being responsive to all voters, not just their most loyal or well-heeled ones.

Go. Vote. Bring a friend along and make her vote, too. Organize a lunchtime voting expedition at work. Stop at the polls on the way home from work. Make our government hear your voice.

Go. Vote.

politics, midtopia

Voter suppression in Virginia?

Appears so.

Documented incidents of suppression incidents include:

1) Calls that Voting will Lead to Arrest.

2) Widespread Calls, Allegedly from “Webb Volunteers,” Telling Voters that their Polling Location has Changed.

3) Fliers in Buckingham County Say “SKIP THIS ELECTION” (paid for by the RNC) have caused many in the African American community to call the Board of Elections to see if the election is still on. The full tag line says: “SKIP THIS ELECTION… (and then in smaller print): Don’t Let the Tax and Spend Liberals Win.”

4) Voter Machine Problems.

That last includes the main known problem: the fact that the machines leave off Webb's last name.

The link contains an audio file of the arrest threat. And in case you think the call might be genuine, it's not:

State election leaders warned voters Monday to ignore any phone calls claiming to be from registrars or other voting officials.

Jean Jensen, secretary of the State Board of Elections, said no such calls have been authorized by her office or local registrars in Virginia.

These allegations remain somewhat unsubstantiated; it's conceivable all of this is an elaborate Democratic effort to tar Republicans.

Assuming it's true, though, I hope whoever is behind this is caught and convicted. Similar shenanigans (jamming Democratic get-out-the-vote phone lines) led to the bankruptcy of the New Hampshire GOP in the last election cycle. Politics ain't beanball, but slime like this has no place.

politics, midtopia

The Final Sleaze

The closer we get to the wire, the worse it gets.

From New York: The picture: a white woman with a black hand over her mouth. The tagline: "If Democrats gain control of Congress, our values will be destroyed!!" As Andrew Sullivan writes: "The Democrats, in other words, want to let a darker-skinned man rape your white wife."

And while the Fix has a roundup of the best campaign commercials, Slate picks out the slimiest ones. All three are Republican. That could be a reflection of bias on the part of Slate. Or it could be a byproduct of the Republicans having the most to lose, or simply having the three looniest candidates this year.

Me? I've been avoiding answering the phone all day because computers have taken over the communications grid, robocalling me to vote for everybody -- twice, if possible. I feel like an extra in "Terminator 3."

I'm a political junkie, but Lordy, sometimes I think politicians should all be neutered. Or lobotomized. Or muzzled. Or maybe just have their noses shoved in their own poop.

Update: In Maryland, Republicans have sent out a last-minute flier that implies black leaders support Gov. Robert Ehrlich and Senate candidate Michael Steele.

Problem is that none of the three leaders pictured support Ehrlich and only one supports Steele.

Update II: In Utah, one county has more registered voters than people -- and one Republican claims to have 14 voting adults in his household.

politics, midtopia

Stretch run

As we head into Election Day, I'm going to break my no-poll guideline to lay out some indicators and make some observations heading into Tuesday.

First, where is Bush campaigning? In relatively safe conservative areas. If you want an indication of how Republicans really think the election is going, there's one. Sure, Bush has an abysmal approval rating (down to 35 percent) and would likely hurt more than help in competitive areas. But the fact that they feel the need to defend normally "safe" Republican districts is an indication of where the momentum lies.

Second, GOP activists are trying to gin up enthusiasm by talking about "momentum" heading into Tuesday. But what constitutes momentum? Not trailing the Democrats by quite as huge a margin as they did a few days ago.

And even that nerveless definition of momentum appears to be evaporating. Fox News shows Democrats leading Republicans by 13 points; CNN shows a 20-point Dem advantage, and a compilation of several polls shows a 12-point margin.

It seems a virtual certainty that Democrats will take the House, as well make gains among governors and in state legislatures. The only real question now is who will control the Senate. Give the edge to the GOP, because they win a tie. But it will be close.

My predictions? Democrats pick up 25 to 30 House seats, and 5 or 6 Senate seats. But that prediction is worth exactly what you paid for it.

politics, midtopia

Reconstruction auditor gets a stealth pink slip

A recent bill signed by President Bush contains an overlooked provision that fires the auditor charged with overseeing the reconstruction effort in Iraq.

Investigations led by a Republican lawyer named Stuart W. Bowen Jr. in Iraq have sent American occupation officials to jail on bribery and conspiracy charges, exposed disastrously poor construction work by well-connected companies like Halliburton and Parsons, and discovered that the military did not properly track hundreds of thousands of weapons it shipped to Iraqi security forces.

Mr. Bowen’s office has inspected and audited taxpayer-financed projects like this prison in Nasiriya, Iraq.

And tucked away in a huge military authorization bill that President Bush signed two weeks ago is what some of Mr. Bowen’s supporters believe is his reward for repeatedly embarrassing the administration: a pink slip.

During closed-door meetings to reconcile the House and Senate version of the bill, Republican aides working for Rep. Duncan Hunter inserted a clause terminating Bowen's office on Oct. 1, 2007. Neither the House nor Senate versions of the bill contained the provision.

The Republican explanation is that the move allows time to plan a transition to more traditional oversight, through inspectors general in various federal agencies. And the 11-month deadline doesn't exactly cut Bowen off at the knees, although it does mean that by January or so he'll have to start shutting things down, which will hamper his effectiveness for the remainder of his term.

But it does seem to continue a long tradition of hobbling oversight of administration actions. The story notes one such gem:

The criticism came to a head in a hearing a year ago, when Representative Dennis J. Kucinich, an Ohio Democrat, induced the Pentagon’s acting inspector general, Thomas Gimble, to concede that he had no agents deployed in Iraq, more than two years after the invasion.

Given that history, the stealthy way in which the termination was executed doesn't do much to allay such concerns. And even if oversight functions are transferred to other agencies, it's doubtful they will execute the job with as much energy as Bowen has -- which may itself be another reason for the move:

Mr. Bowen’s office has 55 auditors and inspectors in Iraq and about 300 reports and investigations already to its credit, far outstripping any other oversight agency in the country.

On the plus side, revelations about the provision have sparked growing opposition from representatives and senators on both sides of the aisle. But it doesn't excuse the fact that the provision, after being inserted, was agreed to by the conferees. They, at least, should be held accountable for their decision.

I don't have a huge problem with Bowen's office being phased out, although it seems to be a poor idea given how poorly managed our Iraq finances have turned out to be. But the process needs to be conducted in the sunshine, not behind closed doors without telling members what you're doing.

Iraq, politics, midtopia

ACORN voter registration fraud

In Kansas City:

A federal grand jury handed up indictments Wednesday against four people after authorities said they submitted false voter registrations to the Kansas City election board.

The indictments — against Kwaim A. Stenson; Dale D. Franklin; Stephanie L. Davis, also known as Latisha Reed; and Brian Gardner — include two felony counts against each, the U.S. attorney’s office said.

All four defendants worked this year as voter registration recruiters for the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, known as ACORN. They could not be reached for comment.

Conservative bloggers are trying to make political hay with this, and to a certain extent they're justified. Voter fraud, whomever commits it, should be prosecuted to the fullest extent possible.

But it's not like anyone is defending this:

ACORN officials said they no longer work for the group. And, they emphasized, ACORN turned in the names of three of the defendants to authorities last month after learning of the problem....

Democratic party spokesman Jack Cardetti said, “We absolutely support the prosecution of anyone who turns in fraudulent registration cards.”

ACORN workers in other states have been similarly charged and in some cases convicted. And there have been some legitimate questions over whether paying registration workers per registration encourages them to turn in fraudulent applications. So the organization certainly deserves scrutiny. But it's a huge group: at least 200,000 members, never mind the people they hire to help with registration drives. So we should be careful about indicting the entire organization based on the actions of a handful of members.

But definitely investigate. People have enough things that make them worry about the integrity of the voting process; we don't need to give them more. And if it turns out the corruption is organizationwide, the entire organization should be held accountable.

ACORN, vote fraud, politics, midtopia

Bush's adobe politics

The previous post on Bush bemoaning mudslinging while engaging in it got me to thinking about his style of rhetoric.

He does one particular thing a lot: He sets up a strawman and then throws mud at it. In past years it was "some people"; this election season he's gotten more specific, aiming at "Democrats" for the most part. It's intellectually lazy, even dishonest. But it lets him look good by defining himself against the worst nightmare caricature of his opposition.

It's such a signature style it deserves a name. And I've got one. Strawman plus mud? Call it adobe politics.

Bush, politics, midtopia

Bush: Do as I say, not as I do

Bush has always been a hard-knuckle campaigner. But rarely is the contrast so jarring as it has been the last couple of days.

From Think Progress:

On Tuesday, in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, President Bush said the worst thing about being President was the "tone" in Washington, saying that it "has gotten ugly." Bush said that he had stayed above the fray, noting "I really don’t think it’s fitting for the president to drag the presidency into that kind of a mudslinging."

The day before, President Bush was on the campaign trail in Georgia. His message: his opponents want America to lose and the terrorist to win.

Has Bush himself joined the crowd that no longer believes a word he says?

I take Think Progress with a grain of salt, but in this case they've posted both the video and transcripts to make their point.

Bush, politics, midtopia

Iraqi men tattoo IDs on their bodies

It's so when they turn up dead, their relatives will be able to identify them even if they've been tortured, mutilated or blown up.

Ali Abbas decided that his upper right thigh was the best place for a tattoo because no one gets tortured there.

He'd seen hundred of bodies in the city morgue and dozens of hospitals during his 18-day search for his missing uncle. He'd seen drill marks in swollen, often unrecognizable heads, slash marks across necks, bullet holes in backs, abdomens and swollen hands. He'd seen bodies that had been thrown into the river, so swollen they'd barely looked human. But by and large, the thighs had been intact.

So that's where he decided to have his name, address and phone number tattooed, in case the day comes when someone is searching for his body.

Tattoos are considered a sin in Islam, which holds that believers shouldn't deface their bodies. And tattoo shops are difficult to find in Baghdad. They're often in the basements of more reputable shops.

But at least some tattoo shops are seeing more and more Iraqis who, like Abbas, are willing to risk offending Islam to ease their families' grief in the event of their deaths. The owner of one tattoo shop in central Baghdad admitted that he'd done such tattoos, but said he didn't want to talk about it for fear that he'd be killed.

Yep, things are going swimmingly. I'm sure the only reason Iraqis are doing this is because Western reporters are underreporting the good news.

politics, midtopia

Racism is dead.... well, not quite.

Out of Miami, another election-eve embarassment for Republicans -- and a reminder that, however much progress we have made, racism remains.

State Rep. Ralph Arza, facing arrest today for participating in expletive-laced threatening phone calls to a Miami Beach lawmaker, resigned his office Wednesday on the steps of Hialeah City Hall and said he would not seek reelection.

Arza made his announcement as prosecutors filed criminal charges of witness interference against both him and his cousin for their calls to Republican Rep. Gus Barreiro on Oct. 21 and 22, just days after Barreiro filed a Florida House rules complaint against Arza for his use of racially disparaging language.

"We had something that usually we find with street criminals, thugs, drug dealers: trying to intimidate a witness," Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernández Rundle said when she announced the charges Wednesday....

At his news conference hours before, Arza surrounded himself with family and friends, and asked for forgiveness for calling Barreiro a racial slur and "bitch."

How can we measure progress? Well, in the following ways: Arza was widely repudiated and forced to apologize and resign his seat. 50 years ago, that wouldn't have been the case.

But such behavior by an elected official also points up how old attitudes die hard. We'll never eradicate racism, merely ameliorate its effects; but such venom from a position of power suggests we still have a long way to go.

racism, Arza, Florida, politics, midtopia

Compare and contrast

Herewith I provide, without comment, two links.

President Bush on Rumsfeld and Cheney:

President Bush said Wednesday he wants Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney to remain with him until the end of his presidency, extending a job guarantee to two of the most-vilified members of his administration.

"Both those men are doing fantastic jobs and I strongly support them," Bush said in an interview with The Associated Press and others.

Meanwhile, in Iraq:

U.S. military commanders assessed two weeks ago that
Iraq was edging toward chaos, according to a classified military chart published in the New York Times on Wednesday.

The chart titled "Index of Civil Conflict" shows a color-coded bar with "peace" marked on the left and "chaos" on the right. An arrow puts the current situation inside the red area on the far right, much closer to chaos than peace.

Draw your own conclusions.

Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Coulter case goes to prosecutors

A new development in the Ann Coulter voting fraud case!

Coulter has refused to cooperate with an election board investigation, so the board will turn the matter over to the state attorney's office this week.

Way to go, Ann. Stonewalling the cops always works so well.

Previous posts are here, here, and here.

For new readers: No, I don't think this is important. But it's always enjoyable to see unpleasant people get their comeuppance.

Coulter, politics, midtopia

Who I'm voting for

In case my opinion carries any weight, here's who I will be voting for next week:

Governor: Peter Hutchinson (I)
House: Jim Ramstad (R, incumbent)
Senate: Amy Klobuchar (D)
State Senate: Terri Bonoff (D, incumbent)
State House: John Benson (D)

Hutchinson stands out as the most thoughtful gubernatorial candidate. Pawlenty's performance has not earned him a second term, and Hatch is long on rhetoric but short on substance.

Ramstad is a moderate Republican who has served the district well. His opponent, Wendy Wilde, has impeccable liberal credentials but little practical experience.

Klobuchar is moderate, smart, and talented. Her opponent, Mark Kennedy, is a deeply conservative Bush lapdog who's about as appealing as Mr. Grumpy himself, Rod Grams.

Bonoff has done a good job in her brief stint in the statehouse. She faces the same opponent -- Judy Johnson -- she did the first time around, and Johnson hasn't provided any reason for voters to think they made a mistake.

Benson has the edge in experience, ideas and education over his affable but green opponent, Dave Johnson.

politics, Minnesota, politics, midtopia

Democratic condescension

This particular trope isn't limited to Democrats, but they happen to be the perpetrators in this instance.

In today's Star Tribune, Lynnell Mickelsen calls on supporters of independent Peter Hutchinson to stop deluding themselves and vote for the Democratic candidate for governor, Mike Hatch. Her closing line:

So, my dear friends, on Nov. 7, buck up and get over yourselves. It's not about you this time. It's about all of us.

Mickelsen has a point: independent candidates, if they don't win, tend to ensure that the candidate most despised by the independent voter will get elected.

But in this case, tough. Pawlenty, while not exactly deserving of a second term, has not been a complete disaster. And Hatch is simply not that impressive. I think he'd do fine as governor, but the gap between him and Pawlenty isn't alarmingly large. The risk of seeing Pawlenty re-elected is worth the chance of putting Hutchinson into office.

But my personal strategy is twofold, because Hatch would, indeed, be my second choice. So if he wins, I'm going to write him and say "This race was far closer than it had to be thanks to Hutchinson siphoning off votes. That's why you need to pass a law legalizing instant-runoff voting. Because in this state, it will almost always be the GOP that benefits from a three-way race. Unless you want to keep seeing GOP candidates win with pluralities, you need to allow voters to prioritize their choices."

Logic would suggest that a Democratic state administration would pursue IRV out of self-interest. I intend to put that logic to the test.

If Pawlenty wins, I'll send the same note. But I won't expect any results, because the GOP knows that the current situation benefits them more than the Democrats. It's not perfect, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.

instant-runoff voting, Pawlenty, Hatch, Hutchinson, Minnesota, politics, midtopia

Sleaze roundup

As we head into the final days before the election, out come the worst sort of attack ads: the ones that won't stand up to scrutiny, so they are released right before the election so they cannot be rebutted in time.

In Colorado: A GOP mailer accuses Democrat Ed Perlmutter of opposing sex-offender notification laws. The bill in question was killed at the request of law enforcement, and Perlmutter helped pass a more comprehensive notification bill the following year.

In Arizona: In a House race, Republican Randy Graf has accused his opponent, Gabrielle Giffords, of engineering a sweetheart land deal with the city of Tuscon -- a charge that appears to be clearly false.

In Virginia: While Democrats fan rumors that Sen. George Allen is a racist domestic abuser who is hiding a criminal record, Allen's campaign has tried to paint challenger James Webb as a sexual deviant based on passages in Webb's bestselling novels.

In Ohio: Republicans accuse Democratic House candidate John Cranley of wanting to use tasers on 7-year-olds.

There's more. FactCheck.org estimates that 90 percent of Republican ads and 80 percent of Democratic ads are negative.

Separately, we have simple political embarassment:

In Washington: John Kerry finally got around to apologizing for his remarks of a couple of days ago. It seems obvious that he simply screwed up an anti-Bush joke, and shame on the Republicans for cynically pushing the issue. But the gaffe -- and his ridiculous response to having it pointed out -- again highlight why he managed to lose to Bush two years ago, and why no Democrats are eager to see him run again. Most, in fact, just wish he would shut up.

In Nevada: A waitress has accused GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons, who is running for governor, of assaulting her. He says he merely helped her when she tripped.

In New York: The Daily News has released details of a 911 call from 2005, in which the wife of GOP Rep John Sweeney said he was "knocking her around the house."

Only six days until it's over.

attack ads, politics, midtopia

Hubble repair mission is a go!

Woo hoo!!

It's scheduled for May 2008. As discussed previously, the repairs will keep it operating until the James Webb telescope comes on line in 2013.

space shuttle, NASA, Hubble, politics, midtopia

The real battle is in the statehouses

While much attention is focused on the federal elections, a more profound change might be underway in state legislatures across the country.

Controlling the statehouses is important for two reasons. One, that's where the future leaders of both parties cut their teeth. Being in control means being able to point to a track record of legislative achievement. It's better practice for governing on a national level than being a perennial opposition party.

More directly, it's the state legislatures that draw Congressional districts after each census. Whichever party controls the statehouses in 2010-11 will be able to draw those districts to their advantage, cementing a decade-long advantage at the national level.

Right now the parties are almost evenly divided. Republicans control both chambers in 20 states; Democrats have that advantage in 19. They are virtually tied in the number of statehouse seats they hold.

If the Democratic wave at the national level is mirrored in local results, Democrats could be poised to take over a solid majority of statehouses. If they retain that control in 2010, it could redraw the political map in their favor.

To be clear, I think gerrymandering is terrible. I've written before about the need to come up with objective formula for drawing districts, and even discussed some proposals for doing exactly that.

So I'm not celebrating the idea of Democrats being able to gerrymander in 2010. But it's hard to overestimate the long-term significance of the local races.

gerrymander, politics, midtopia

Is luck genetic?

I've always thought of myself as a pretty lucky person.

Not lucky in the sense of "being born into a middle-class, well-educated American family", although frankly that's like hitting the jackpot right there. But actually, you know, lucky. I've always seemed to beat the odds more often than most -- winning a raffle, avoiding speeding tickets, winning luck-based games, avoiding random trouble, that sort of thing. Computer errors tend to work in my favor. And despite being a registered voter my entire adult life, I've never once been called for jury duty.

Now I'm beginning to wonder if luck is genetic.

My oldest daughter is 6 years old, and takes after me in most ways (our youngest takes after their mother). A couple of days ago we went to a Halloween party at school. They had the usual array of Halloween activities -- face-painting, trick-or-treating, cookie-decorating, and so on.

But they also had a Bingo table, where five kids played at a time, and you needed to get three numbers in a row to win.

My oldest daughter sat down and won. First time. In three numbers.

Down the hall was a prize room, with a twist: Kids had to stand on squares numbered 1 to 10. If they drew your number, you were allowed to go in and pick a prize. Every time a child went in, their place was taken by a waiting child.

My oldest daughter walked up, stepped on a square, and won. First time.

So in rapid succession, she beat odds of 10 percent and roughly 20 percent. Combined, she beat odds of 2 percent. Less, really, because she won the Bingo game in three draws, an unlikely event in itself.

That's not lottery-winning luck, but it's not bad.

The science-fiction writer Larry Niven wrote several stories set in his Known Space universe that explored the implications of breeding humans for luck. His novel "Ringworld" included one such human, Teela Brown; the short story "Safe at Any Speed" takes the idea into the far future, where generations of breeding have produced extraordinarily lucky people. It's kind of boring.

It was always a neat idea, if not one to be taken seriously. But now I'm beginning to wonder if Niven was right.

Larry Niven, science fiction, genetics, luck, midtopia

Shoe on the other foot?

Speaking of electronic voting machines, Republicans haven't seemed overly concerned at the prospect of them being hackable.

But boy, this seems to have them in a tizzy:

The federal government is investigating the takeover last year of Sequoia Voting Systems of Oakland, a leading American manufacturer of electronic voting systems, by Smartmatic Corp., a small software company that has been linked to the leftist government of President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.

The federal inquiry is focusing on the Venezuelan owners of the software company, the Smartmatic Corp., and is trying to determine whether the government in Caracas has any control or influence over the firm's operations, government officials and others familiar with the investigation said.

Smartmatic denies any influence, and they may well be telling the truth -- although their connections to the Venezuelan government are more tangled than those of Citgo.

So to recap: A Republican-run company says its machines are secure despite mounds of evidence to the contrary? No problem. A leftist government may have access to our voting machines? Call out the dogs!

Okay, to be fair, the Diebold flap is an issue for state and local election boards, not the federal government, while a Venezuela connection is a federal responsibility. And frankly, I don't care how it happens; any attention or investigation that leads to actually doing something about the integrity of our voting process is a good thing.

But it's still pretty funny.

Venezuela, Smartmatic, politics, midtopia

Will voting machines trip up the GOP in Texas?

The race to replace Rep. Tom DeLay has tightened, with GOP write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs polling well against Democrat Nick Lampson.

My money's still on Lampson; telling a pollster you don't mind the write-in candidate, and actually writing her name on the ballot, are two different things.

Especially because of this:

The third option on that ballot is "write-in." Voters who make that selection on the electronic voting machines that most will use are directed to an alphabet screen, where they use a wheel to spell out their choice's name a letter at a time.

I think this is terrible; writing in a candidate's name should be a lot easier than that. As it is, I suspect only the most ardent write-in supporters will go to the trouble.

But it's also rather ironic that an electronic-voting machine glitch may end up costing the GOP one of their safest seats.

Sekula-Gibbs, Tom Delay, Lampson, politics, midtopia

To the sun (and Hubble)

A couple of days ago, NASA launched a major new scientific mission: the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory.

No, it's not a diplomatic effort, though as an aside that is part of the plot of the science fiction novel Cusp, by Robert Metzger. It's a mission to observe the sun and study solar flares.

Scientists hope the $550 million, two-year mission will help them understand why these eruptions occur, how they form and what path they take.

The eruptions _ called solar flares _ typically blow a billion tons of the sun's atmosphere into space at a speed of 1 million mph. The phenomenon is responsible for the Northern Lights, or aurora borealis, the luminous display of lights seen in the upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Besides being just plain cool -- the twin spacecraft will send back 3-D images of the sun -- and likely to provide a torrent of scientific data, this mission demonstrates why exploring our solar system is important. Besides causing the Northern Lights, solar flares damage satellites and disrupt communications networks. Learning how and why they develop will have a practical payoff back here on Earth.

With STEREO launched and on its way, NASA is now turning its attention to a more problematic issue: whether to mount one last repair mission to the Hubble telescope. A decision is expected to be announced on Tuesday.

If Griffin says "go," the mission could launch as early as 2008, providing 7,000 astronomers worldwide with five more years of access to the famous telescope — along with better instruments to explore the depths of the universe and its evolution.

But a Hubble mission would also be the only flight before the shuttle's retirement in 2010 that could not reach the International Space Station in case of emergency. That scenario has worried NASA since 2003, when the shuttle Columbia was damaged by debris on liftoff and burned up during reentry. All seven crew members died.

If NASA decides not to save Hubble, astronomers would be without an orbiting telescope until its successor, the James Webb telescope, is launched in 2013.

James Webb, solar observatory, Hubble, NASA, politics, midtopia

Gay marriage in New Jersey?

Not quite marriage, no. But New Jersey's Supreme Court has ruled that gay couples have the same legal rights as heterosexual couples.

In a ruling that fell short of what either side wanted or feared, the state Supreme Court declared 4-3 that homosexual couples are entitled to the same rights as heterosexual ones. The justices gave lawmakers 180 days to rewrite the laws.

Here's a nice Q&A on the case.

The justices stopped short of recognizing a right to same-sex marriage, but they concluded -- logically enough -- that benefits made available to straight couples have to be made available to gay couples, too.

And that 4-3 vote? Not what you might think. The three dissenters argued that the court didn't go far enough. They wanted the court to recognize gay marriage as a right.

So now the state Legislature has 180 days to legalize either gay marriage or civil unions. Meanwhile, state Republicans said they would try to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex unions. And one, Assemblyman Richard Merkt, said he would try to have all seven justices impeached. What a charmer.

The score so far? Massachusetts allows gay marriage; Vermont and Connecticut allow civil unions. 16 states have amended their constitutions to ban gay marriage, and eight more are considering doing so.

This patchwork will create some interesting situations going forward. The continued existence of same-sex union states will belie the "sky is falling" rhetoric used to oppose it. A growing number of marriages recognized in one state but not another -- and the injustices caused by that -- will put pressure on states to adopt a uniform treatment.

Most promising, civil unions likely will spread as a reasonable compromise, hindered a bit by overly broad constitutional amendments passed too quickly and carelessly. And that may help nudge the nation toward the one solution that could be acceptable to all: getting the government out of the marriage business. The law would then become civil unions for everyone, marriage for those who want it.

Which, by the way, is a near-perfect example of how keeping the government out of religion ends up being the best guarantor of religious liberty. The government can provide legal and tax benefits based on objective criteria, serving its secular purpose. And marriage, its direct connection to those benefits severed, can be freely bestowed or withheld by each church as it sees fit.

I truly believe that in 20 years, people will wonder what all the fuss was about.

civil unions, gay marriage, New Jersey, politics, midtopia

Let the mudslinging begin

We take you first to Ohio, where Ken Blackwell has gone completely off the deep end.

With polls showing him so far behind that he could drag the entire Republican ticket down to defeat, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell launched an attack last week that took political discourse in Ohio to unplumbed depths.

In the last of four debates, Blackwell accused his Democratic rival for governor, Rep. Ted Strickland, of covering up for a campaign staff member who exposed himself to children and supporting the platform of NAMBLA, the North American Man/Boy Love Association.

By the week's end, the allegations had become more bizarre and outlandish.

More bizarre and outlandish? Well, yes. Not from Blackwell himself, but from two of his prominent supporters, who for some reason feel it's important to imply (or, indeed, openly speculate) that the married Strickland is gay.

The "coverup" allegation involves a staffer convicted of public indecency -- a misdemeanor -- in 1994 for exposing himself near an elementary school.

Strickland says he received an anonymous letter in 1998 during a heated campaign, asked the man about it and dropped the matter after the staffer denied it. After the campaign, the staffer accompanied Strickland on a trip to Italy. He left Strickland's staff in 1999.

Coverup? Of an incident that occurred four years previously and had nothing to do with Strickland? Criticize him for being incurious, perhaps. But then one might ask how relevant a four-year-old misdemeanor conviction is.

The NAMBLA allegation revolves around this:

But LoParo said Blackwell also questions Strickland's judgment for agreeing with NAMBLA by not supporting a congressional resolution in 1999 that condemned an article about child sexual abuse.

Strickland, a psychologist, said he disagreed with the resolution's assertion that an abused child cannot have healthy relationships as an adult.

Way to go, Blackwell. You've proven that there are still unplumbed depths of political mudslinging.

Strickland, Blackwell, Ohio, politics, midtopia

What if the Democrats win?

In what strikes me as a sign of desperation, Republicans have been trying to scare people with the prospect of what the Democrats might do if they take over Congress. Socialized medicine! Tax hikes! Impeachment! The destruction of the country! You just know that a bunch of people are going to go trick-or-treating as Speaker Nancy Pelosi this year, claiming it's the scariest thing they can think of.

I won't get into the silliness of such claims, like the National Review claiming Charlie Rangel would eliminate 529 savings plans or abolish the child tax credit -- all because he said he couldn't think of a single Bush tax cut he liked.

Then there's the little matter of Pelosi specifically ruling out impeachment proceedings.

And I'll content myself with briefly noting that Democrats have been in charge for much of this century and the country is still standing, still a superpower, still the biggest economy on earth, and best I can recall we haven't been invaded and conquered during that time.

Set all that aside. Let's assume the Democrats are in fact Communists in Donkey dress, and if elected they will shed their disguises and put a bust of Lenin in the House chamber.

So what?

Even if the Democrats take both the House and the Senate, they will not command veto-proof majorities. Bush may have to exercise his veto pen for once, but his vetoes will stick unless his own party revolts against him. And the Republican minority will use all the procedural tricks they've decried for the past decade -- filibusters, Senatorial holds, what have you -- to derail Democratic bills they don't like.

The most significant threat, in fact, doesn't involve Pelosi at all; it involves Harry Reid. Because if the Democrats manage to take the Senate, they can block a lot of Bush's judicial appointments. But even that power is limited; they can block, but they can't nominate. And Bush can make recess appointments, or simply make hay out of all the judicial vacancies the Dems are letting pile up.

So the plain fact is that all the nation risks by letting the Democrats take over is a two-year standoff with the White House. That may actually be a good thing; but in any event I'd rather risk that than let the GOP remain in charge after the hash they've made of things in the past six years.

It's time for a change. Republicans had their chance; let's see what the Democrats can come up with.

Bush, Congress, Reid, Pelosi, politics, midtopia

The moving target of Nov. 7

Predicting who is going to win the upcoming election is a bit of a fool's game. But here are two interesting and slightly contradictory factors.

On the Democrat side of the ledger, the GOP's effort to lure minority voters appears to be in jeopardy.

A major effort to draw Latinos and blacks into the Republican Party, a central element of the GOP plan to build a long-lasting majority, is in danger of collapse amid anger over the immigration debate and claims that Republican leaders have not delivered on promises to direct more money to church-based social services.

President Bush, strategist Karl Rove and other top Republicans have wooed Latino and black leaders, many of them evangelical clergy who lead large congregations, in hopes of peeling away the traditional Democratic base. But now some of the leaders who helped Bush win in 2004 are revisiting their loyalty to the Republican Party and, in some cases, abandoning it.

This has been a major and, I believe, sincere push by Ken Mehlman at the RNC, with some help from the White House. But he's been frustrated by members of his own party, particularly by the border-fence bill.

Separately, Dick Morris is claiming that recent polls show GOP candidates closing the gap on their Democratic rivals. Take that with a grain of salt, because it's Dick Morris and he's relying in part on what he says are internal candidate polls.

More tangible is the GOP advantage in cash and get-out-the-vote organization. As the link explains, the effect of the last is hard to gauge. But it's worth noting that Howard Dean's "50 state" project is in part an emulation of the GOP, trying to build effective grass-roots organizations all across the country both to improve Democratic turnout and force the GOP to spend money defending seats they currently take for granted.

A lot of moving parts. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.

politics, midtopia

Bombast and bloviating

With Ann Coulter apparently keeping a low profile (for her), let's check in on Rush Limbaugh. Sure, it's like shooting fish in a barrel, but that's why we have celebrity loudmouths. So lessee. What is Rush up to?

Oh, my.

A political ad in which a Parkinson's-afflicted Michael J. Fox talks about stem cell research was criticized Monday by conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh, who asserted that Fox was "either off his medication or acting" while filming the commercial.

"Michael J. Fox is allowing his illness to be exploited and in the process is shilling for a Democrat politician," Limbaugh said of the ad for Senate candidate Claire McCaskill of Missouri.

Setting aside the condescension oozing from that last remark, let's check out the rest of his claims.

Here's the ad in question. Fox similarly slammed Michael Steele of Maryland, for similarly opposing stem-cell research.

Yup, Michael sure is weaving around a lot. Does Rush know something we don't?

No. He's just ignorant.

SIDE EFFECTS: Most patients receiving levodopa-carbidopa experience side effects, but these are usually reversible. Occasional involuntary movements are the most common of the serious side effects of levodopa-carbidopa therapy. These may include chewing, gnawing, twisting, tongue or mouth movements, head bobbing, or movements of the feet, hands, or shoulder.

So apparently Fox wasn't "off his medication;" his medication was causing the problem. Having established that Rush is more than willing to pontificate about things he knows nothing about, let's move on to the more substantive issue of slamming Fox for doing the commercial.

Here's how Rush defended his statements about Fox and Amendment 2.

The ad is misleading in countless ways, primarily in the most fundamental of ways. Remember that the Amendment 2 in Missouri is simply a cloning amendment that would legalize cloning in the state of Missouri. It is called the stem cell research and cures initiative and has nothing to do with stem cell research. The Michael J. Fox ad says that Jim Talent and Michael Steele want to criminalize stem cell research. They don't. Stem cell research is legal in both states, and it is ongoing at universities in both states.

Here's the full text of the proposed Amendment, which Jim Talent opposes.

So, Rush is (big suprise) dead wrong when he says Amendment 2 has nothing to do with stem cells. It would specifically legalize stem-cell research, with certain restrictions. And it would specifically outlaw cloning. Rush needs to get new researchers.

Talent opposes Amendment 2. Because Amendment 2 would explicitly legalize and protect stem-cell research, Fox says Talent opposes stem-cell research.

One may be able to split hairs by claiming "well, Talent supports such research if no blastocysts are harmed" or the like. But such fine and impractical distinctions aside, Rush is off base. Talent, quite clearly, opposes an amendment that would legalize stem-cell research.

Meanwhile, Steele opposes stem-cell research in even stronger terms.

Rush says any claim that Talent and Steele want to criminalize such research is off base because stem-cell research is already legal. That's a bit of sophistry, however; the legal status of such research is far from clear. The whole point of Amendment 2 is to provide clarity by crafting a specific and narrow protection.

Another reason why listening to Rush kills brain cells.

stem cells, Fox, Limbaugh, politics, midtopia

God and the Founding Fathers?

You often hear the claim that the United States is a "Judeo-Christian" nation, founded on "Judeo-Christian" values. This is usually used as a preface to argue that the government should be heavily involved in religious speech.

But it's bunk. And it has never been so eloquently pointed out as it was this weekend by George Will, in a review of "Moral Minority: Our Skeptical Founding Fathers" by Brooke Allen.

I'll let Will do the talking on this one:

Eighteenth-century deists believed there was a God but, tellingly, they frequently preferred synonyms for him — “Almighty Being” or “Divine Author” (Washington) or “a Superior Agent” (Jefferson). Having set the universe in motion like a clockmaker, Providence might reward and punish, perhaps in the hereafter, but does not intervene promiscuously in human affairs. (Washington did see “the hand of Providence” in the result of the Revolutionary War.) Deists rejected the Incarnation, hence the divinity of Jesus. “Christian deist” is an oxymoron.

Allen’s challenge is to square the six founders’ often pious public words and behavior with her conviction that their real beliefs placed all six far from Christianity. Her conviction is well documented, exuberantly argued and quite persuasive.

When Franklin was given some books written to refute deism, the deists’ arguments “appeared to me much stronger than the refutations; in short, I soon became a thorough deist.” Revelation “had indeed no weight with me.” He believed in a creator and the immortality of the soul, but considered these “the essentials of every religion.”

What Allen calls Washington’s “famous gift of silence” was particularly employed regarding religion. But his behavior spoke. He would not kneel to pray, and when his pastor rebuked him for setting a bad example by leaving services before communion, Washington mended his ways in his austere manner: he stayed away from church on communion Sundays. He acknowledged Christianity’s “benign influence” on society, but no ministers were present and no prayers were uttered as he died a Stoic’s death.

Adams declared that “phylosophy looks with an impartial Eye on all terrestrial religions,” and told a correspondent that if they had been on Mount Sinai with Moses and had been told the doctrine of the Trinity, “We might not have had courage to deny it, but We could not have believed it.” It is true that the longer he lived, the shorter grew his creed, and in the end his creed was Unitarianism.

Jefferson, writing as a laconic utilitarian, urged his nephew to inquire into the truthfulness of Christianity without fear of consequences: “If it ends in a belief that there is no god, you will find incitements to virtue in the comforts and pleasantness you feel in its exercise, and the love of others which it will procure you.”

Madison, always common-sensical, briskly explained — essentially, explained away — religion as an innate appetite: “The mind prefers at once the idea of a self-existing cause to that of an infinite series of cause & effect.” When Congress hired a chaplain, he said “it was not with my approbation.”

There's more. It's a good read for anybody interested in the religious underpinnings (or lack thereof) of our nation.

George Will, Brooke Allen, Founding Fathers, religion, politics, midtopia

Use. Paper.

Yet another report out about how vulnerable electronic voting machines are to hackers.

But ABC News has obtained an independent report commissioned by the state of Maryland and conducted by Science Applications International Corporation revealing that the original Diebold factory passwords are still being used on many voting machines.

The SAIC study also shows myriad other security flaws, including administrative over-ride passwords that cannot be changed by local officials but can be used by hackers or those who have seen the discs.

The report further states that one of the high risks to the system comes if operating code discs are lost, stolen or seen by unauthorized parties — precisely what seems to have occurred with the discs sent to Kagan, who worries that the incident indicates the secret source code is not that difficult to obtain.

"Certainly, just tweaking a few votes in a couple of states could radically change the outcome of our policies for the coming year," she said.

Gee, ya think?

This has been a known problem for at least two years now. The fact that Diebold is still denying that a problem exists does little to enhance their credibility.

The solution is simple: a verifiable paper ballot that can be counted as a backup system. It's a step Diebold has fought tooth and nail.

I'm at the point where I think any vote conducted by electronic voting with no paper trail should be presumed to be fraudulent if the outcome is even remotely close -- say, within 10 or 15 percentage points.

Republicans rail about voter fraud and push through photo ID requirements for voting -- not coincidentally, a move expected to depress Democratic turnout. But they seem to be resistant to doing something about potential hacking of the voting machines themselves, a more equal-opportunity vulnerability.

Both are flaws that need fixing. This is not about partisan politics; it's about ensuring the integrity of the voting process.

If the security of the new machines cannot be established in time, they should not be used for the Nov. 7 vote.

Diebold, politics, midtopia

How much lockstep?

No commentary here, just a great resource: A list of how faithfully every Representative voted with Bush over the last two years.

Give it a look when deciding whether to send an incumbent back to Washington on Nov. 7. Principled agreement I respect; slavish obeyance I don't.

politics, midtopia