Holding a grudge

In a satirical example of how all politics are personal, I give you this.

In which a diehard Redskins fan takes aim at former Redskins QB Heath Shuler, who is running for Congress in North Carolina. His campaign -- complete with hilarious attack ads -- is supposedly intended to prevent Shuler from bringing his aura of defeat back to Washington.

Heath Shuler, politics, midtopia

Another NSA lawsuit proceeds

An Oregon judge is allowing another suit challenging the NSA eavesdropping program to go through.

U.S. District Judge Garr King said he believes there may be a way for the lawsuit, filed by a now-defunct Islamic charity, to proceed without releasing information that could harm national security.

The lawsuit was filed by the Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, which had a chapter in Ashland that went out of business after the U.S. government labeled it a terrorist organization.

The foundation charged that two of its lawyers and at least one official were under electronic surveillance in March and April 2004. The foundation asked King to rule the surveillance a violation of a federal law that requires a special court to approve intelligence-related wiretapping.

This is different from the ACLU suit in Detroit, which led to a judge ordering the program shut down -- a ruling that has been suspended pending appeal.

What makes this case interesting is that the plaintiffs seem to have a very good chance of showing proper standing for the suit, as well as the ability to argue that a trial would not compromise national security. Here's why:

The Portland case turns on what King called the "Sealed Document," information that government lawyers accidentally gave Al-Haramain lawyers in 2004 before demanding it back. King said the document is now in a secure room at the FBI's Portland office.

Al-Haramain's attorneys want to use the document to make their case, but the government says any use of it will compromise state secrets.

King said the document remains classified, despite its disclosure to the plaintiffs and to a reporter from the Washington Post.

This would seem to indicate that there is proof the charity was monitored, essentially proving they have standing; and it would seem to obviate much of the security argument, because the information is already out of the bag.

We shall see.

NSA, terrorism, politics, midtopia

Caught on Tape II

A couple of months ago, Condoleeza Rice was caught on tape speaking frankly about Iraq. Now it's the Terminator's turn.

In the sanctuary of his Capitol office with an audio recorder rolling, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger describes Republican legislators as the "wild bunch" and, referring to a Latina lawmaker, casually says that "black blood" mixed with "Latino blood" equals "hot" — a fiery personality....

They also freely discuss other state legislators and the political process.

It's not particularly startling stuff. And it doesn't impress the listener the way Condi's overheard discussion does. The racial remarks, quoted above, will draw fire from people who say it's racist. But the comments were not said maliciously -- Schwarzenegger actually admires the lawmaker in question. And they aren't all that different from me attributing my penny-pinching ways to my Scottish ancestry.

I just include it here as a glimpse into Arnie's style and personality.

You can listen to an MP3 of the recording here.

Schwarzenegger, California, politics, midtopia

More good news from Lebanon

Yesterday Israel lifted its air blockade of Lebanon. Today, it lifted its naval blockade.

Israel turned over monitoring of Lebanon's coast to Italian naval vessels, who "will continue to enforce the international embargo against the supply of armaments to Hezbollah," Israeli government spokeswoman Miri Eisin said.

It also announced it would withdraw completely from Lebanon within two weeks. And Israel signaled it would be willing to leave ownership of the dispute Chebaa Farms area up to the UN, and cede it to Lebanon if the UN says so.

That territorial dispute is the main obstacle to a permanent peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, so Olmert's suggestion has fairly large implications.

On the downside, the last time the UN looked into the matter it said the Farms didn't belong to Lebanon -- a ruling Lebanon rejected (it doesn't belong to Israel, either; the UN decision was based on the conclusion that it was originally part of Syria, same as the rest of the adjacent Golan Heights). Both sides would have to agree to abide by the UN's decision for this to work.

More pragmatically, Israel might just cede the territory and be done with it. It's militarily useful territory -- the high ground looks down on Israel on one side and Syria/Lebanon on the other. But it's uninhabited, and a few square kilometers are not worth more than a permanent peace.

All of this leaves one major item unresolved -- the fate of the two Israeli soldiers whose capture sparked the recent fighting. Look for Israel to grudgingly agree to swap prisoners, like it did earlier with Hamas.

After that, we can get down to watching how the Lebanese Army, backed by UN peacekeepers, deal with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, politics, midtopia

Surprise, surprise

The promised Senate report is out, and the main conclusion shouldn't surprise anyone who hasn't shared the White House's isolation chamber for the last five years.

There's no evidence
Saddam Hussein had ties with al-Qaida, according to a Senate report on prewar intelligence that Democrats say undercuts President Bush's justification for invading Iraq.

Bush administration officials have insisted on a link between the Iraqi regime and terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Intelligence agencies, however, concluded there was none.

Republicans counter this is "old news." I'd agree with them.... if the administration didn't continue to insist that Iraq had terror connections, and that the invasion was justified. For it to be "old news", war supporters actually have to accept it as true.

And as I noted yesterday, we're still waiting for the real report: What, if anything, the administration did to manipulate or shade the intelligence it received. We won't know until the report comes out, but allow me a purely speculative question: why would Congressional Republicans tie that particular report up in knots unless there actually was something to hide?

Let us hope the truth comes out sooner rather than later.

Bush, terrorism, Bush, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Whatever happened to Phase 2?

That would be the second part of the Congressional probe of U.S. intelligence failures in Iraq -- the part that's supposed to examine how the administration used the intelligence it had. The part that was postponed until after the 2004 elections so as not to, I don't know, influence them or something.

Phase 2 is still -- surprise, surprise -- tied up in partisan bickering. But at least there's this:

A Senate panel on Thursday voted to release two newly declassified reports on prewar Iraq intelligence, including one examining the role of an Iraqi exile group that spread allegations, later proved false, about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction....

A second report compares U.S. prewar intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's links to terrorism with findings made by military and intelligence officials after the March 2003 invasion.

Look for them on Friday at the committee's Web site.

intelligence, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Pollster admits making up data

And the victims include several well-known politicians.

The owner of DataUSA Inc., a company that conducted political polls for the campaigns of President Bush, Sen. Joe Lieberman and other candidates, pleaded guilty to fraud for making up survey and poll results.

Tracy Costin pleaded guilty Wednesday to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Costin, 46, faces a maximum of five years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000 when she is sentenced Nov. 30.

I assume the data was fabricated to tell the candidates what they wanted to hear, which could have led to poor choices as far as campaign rhetoric, spending, scheduling and the like.

This is just one pollster, and one I've never heard of at that. I would not use this case to draw conclusions about the ethics and legality of the profession as a whole. But it does highlight the enormous amount of trust people put in pollsters -- not just to be honest, but also to conduct their polls in a professional and statistically valid manner. Usually this is fine, especially when the pollsters publish their methodology and detailed results. But it reinforces the fact that polls should be taken with large grains of salt -- one reason you'll rarely see them quoted here.

Costin, polls, politics, midtopia

A day of revelations

I didn't capitalize the "R" in the title, but perhaps I should have. Let's start at the top.

The Pentagon finally released its new interrogation field manual, and it is a Good Thing.

Forced nudity, hooding, using dogs, conducting mock executions or simulated drownings were among eight abusive interrogation practices banned under new rules unveiled by the U.S. military on Wednesday....

The manual explicitly prohibits torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment. But it keeps 16 long-standing interrogation techniques and adds three new ones, said Lt. Gen. John Kimmons, Army deputy chief of staff for intelligence.

We'll get to those in a minute. What is most heartening is this acknowledgement:

"No good intelligence is going to come from abusive practices," he said. Intelligence obtained under duress, he added, would have "questionable credibility" and do more harm than good when the abuse inevitably became public.

This is good. But as we'll see below, the administration does not actually believe that.

So what is allowed?

Practices still permitted include rewarding detainees for cooperation, flattery and instilling fear. Two of the new techniques were the use of a good-cop, bad-cop approach and allowing interrogators to portray themselves as someone other than a U.S. interrogator.

A third new technique, called "separation," can be used only on detainees deemed "enemy combatants" to keep them away from one another, and only with high-level military approval.

No real issues there. Although the FBI has complained in the past about interrogators posing as FBI agents. And posing as lawyers or journalists can cause other problems.

Nonetheless, I am well pleased. It may have taken years of mounting criticism and a Supreme Court ruling to make it happen, but it has happened. Now perhaps the stain of torture can be removed from the military's reputation.

The downside is that these rules don't apply to the CIA. And that's particularly relevant, because President Bush acknowledged today that the spy agency does, indeed, operate a network of secret prisons for "high-value" detainees -- the final 14 of whom have now been transferred to Gitmo for trial.

The Washington Post has a nice breakdown of the detainees here.

I admit to being torn on this one. Don't get me wrong; we shouldn't be routinely torturing people or operating prisons outside the reach of the law. But my main objection to mistreating prisoners stems from the fact that we did so before proving that the detainee was, in fact, a terrorist, and that we were denying basic rights to a wide swath of people.

But in the case of known high-ranking terrorists, different rules may apply. If we were to capture bin Laden, I would not object to harshly interrogating him to learn of associates and active plots.

So I'm okay in principle with the idea of establishing a different set of rules for a very, very, VERY small number of high-value prisoners. But those rules should be clearly established by Congress, in play for a limited time and conducted under close scrutiny and oversight from higher officials. They should not occur in secret prisons beyond the reach of public accountability.

Speaking of public accountability, Bush also asked Congress to approve his plan for military tribunals. It contains no serious concessions to the recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down his previous plan; he's asking Congress to rubber-stamp the plan he came up with. This includes using secret evidence that defendants cannot see, as well as evidence obtained through coercive interrogations.

That's a bad idea. Try and convict them in a fair trial, or not at all. If they're a terrorist, throw away the key. But prove it first.

tribunals, Gitmo, CIA, terrorism, Bush, politics, midtopia

Lebanon improves

So far, so good.

Turkey pledges peacekeepers to Lebanon, and the Lebanese Army takes over five villages from Israel. Meanwhile, a deal is being discussed to lift the Israeli blockade of Lebanese ports -- a blockade intended to keep Hezbollah from rearming as long as Israeli troops are in Lebanon. And the UN is mediating prisoner-swap talks between Israel and Hezbollah.

Separately, it appears an Israeli soldier being held by Hamas will be swapped for as many as 800 Israeli prisoners -- to be followed by a meeting between Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas.

politics, midtopia

What are we standing up?

I came across this a few days ago and thought it was interesting. It's just one Marine's observations, but it rings true to this ex-tanker.

After discussing what appears to be ingrained Iraqi military culture (officers beating up subordinates, officers stealing supplies, rations and money), this Marine trainer sums it up with:

So after 6 months we've:

- taught them techniques for planning operations...they won't do it.
- shown them how to conduct weapons sustainment ranges...they won't do it.
- we've shown them how to conduct convoys...they won't do it.
- we've taught them moral and ethical behavior required of soldiers...they won't do it.
- we've taught them how to manage logistics...they won't do it.
- we've taught them personnel and administrative management...they won't do it.
- we've taught them how to operate tactically...they won't do it.
- we've taught them how to sustain the life support systems on the camp...they won't do it.

Basically we have taught them how to be a self sufficient battalion, but unless the Marines do it for them, they won't do anything. They ALWAYS revert back to the "Iraqi way" when we are not around and that involves DESTROYING and WASTING everything they get their hands on.

Though repugnant to us, there's nothing inherently destructive about officers striking troops. The South Korean military is one of the best in the world, and is known for doing exactly that -- officers beating the snot out of sergeants, sergeants beating the snot out of privates. It can work if it fits with local culture.

But what the rest implies is that by Western standards the Iraqi Army will never be ready to tackle things on its own.

Of course, under Saddam the Iraqis were rather good at squelching uprisings, so we know that they can get the job done in that respect. But that involved minority Sunnis beating down majority Shiites, so they had incentive to do a good job and there was a limit to how far they could go. And it was brutal. If the new Iraqi Army -- which is mostly Shiite -- begins doing the same to minority Sunnis, it could turn into a minor genocide. Even if it doesn't, their approach is likely to be far messier, brutal and corrosive to democracy than anything we could possibly condone.

Add this to the list of questions that need to be answered as we "stay the course": What can we expect from the new Iraqi Army? At what point do we say, "we've done all we can"?

terrorism, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Lebanese ceasefire firms up

As Israel races to destroy Hezbollah arms caches, a thousand Italian peacekeepers arrive in Lebanon. On the other side of the Middle East, Kofi Annan is asking Iran to end military support for Hezbollah and compromise on its nuclear program.

I'm not holding my breath on the last two, but they can't hurt.

Annan, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, politics, midtopia

Self-inflicted stupidity

I'm not a big fan of Mike Hatch. But if Matt Entenza hadn't already dropped out of the race for attorney general, I'd be suggesting he do so after this latest revelation.

This summer, when the allegation resurfaced, Entenza said he paid only a "couple of hundred dollars" for his research on Hatch. He said some research the firm conducted, including an investigation of a Hatch parking ticket, went beyond anything he authorized.

On Friday, Entenza filed an amended campaign finance report, disclosing that he paid the $40,000 to Gragert Research, the Chicago company that conducted the research.

In a four-paragraph statement, Entenza apologized to Minnesotans for not being forthcoming.

"I made a mistake in the handling and the release of information to the public regarding the research," he said, "and I apologize for that mistake and take full responsibility. … Once the research became public, I should have been more forthcoming and open about it. For that, I am very sorry."

I actually kind of like Entenza, but he's pulled some boneheaded stuff this year.

Entenza, Minnesota, politics, midtopia

The situation in Iraq

I don't even know what to say about this sort of thing anymore. It's all been said.

Sectarian violence is spreading in
Iraq and the security problems have become more complex than at any time since the U.S. invasion in 2003, a Pentagon report said Friday.

In a notably gloomy report to Congress, the Pentagon reported that illegal militias have become more entrenched, especially in Baghdad neighborhoods where they are seen as providers of both security and basic social services.

The administration says it's doing fine. But Harry Reid is right when he says that Bush et al are "increasingly disconnected from the facts on the ground." And I still can't get over the bizarre sight of Donald Rumsfeld arguing that more troops mean more security -- after three years of saying and doing the opposite.

The Labor Day weekend couldn't have arrived at a better time.

Pentagon, security, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Syria promises to stop weapon shipments

I wouldn't take their word on this, but if they follow through it would be a positive development.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday that Syria has pledged to step up border patrols and work with the Lebanese army to stop the flow of weapons to Hezbollah.

Annan also said that he had asked Syrian President Bashar Assad to use his nation's influence to help win the release of three Israeli soldiers held by Lebanese and Palestinian militants allied with Damascus.

According to Annan, Assad said at a meeting in Damascus that Syria will boost the number of its guards along the Lebanon-Syria border and establish joint patrols with the Lebanese army "where possible."

The impetus for this agreement was Israel's insistence that the UN patrol the border with Syria in order to stop weapons from crossing -- something Syria saw as insulting.

Whether this is just words to stave off a UN presence, or a serious commitment by Syria, only time will tell.

Annan, Israel, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, politics, midtopia

And the leaker is...

...Richard Armitage.

Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage was the source who revealed the identity of CIA officer Valerie Plame to syndicated columnist Robert Novak in 2003, touching off a federal investigation, two sources familiar with Armitage's role tell CNN.

The sources said Armitage revealed Plame's role at the CIA almost inadvertently in a casual conversation with Novak, and it is not clear if he knew her identity was classified at the time.

So what does this mean?

Well, it does lighten the accusations levied at the Bush administration, namely that they revealed Plame's identity in order to discredit her husband. Armitage is an unlikely avenue for a Bush administration smear campaign, since he was a critic of the decision to invade Iraq.

But it doesn't appear to change some fundamental facts.

Cheney did ask Libby to find out about Plame's role in her husband's trip. That inquiry is why Armitage knew Plame's identity. Then, once Novak began asking questions, both Libby and Rove were only too happy to discuss the situation with reporters. And then tried to hide that fact later.

Nor does this directly change the basis for the charges against Libby: that he lied about his contacts with reporters.

Nor does it change the fact that a CIA agent's identity was revealed, however inadvertently.

Still, the likelihood that there was a crime committed here seems remote. If Libby had nothing to cover up, the cover-up charges make little sense.

It appears that what you have here is a bunch of senior officials being surprisingly careless with what they ought to have suspected was sensitive information, then trying to hide their actions; and the irony that Cheney's inquiry is what started the ball rolling on a scandal that roiled the White House for years. Incompetence and cowardice, yes, but not criminal intent.

Whether the Libby case should go to trial or be dropped depends on the basis for the charges. If they are independent of the Armitage revelation -- in other words, if Libby really did lie on the stand -- then he should be charged. But the prosecution will have to demonstrate that Libby had some sort of motive for doing so.

Armitage, Libby, Plame, politics, midtopia

Polls and a grain of salt

The New York Times has produced a nice primer on the strengths and weaknesses of polls, and how to read them with a skeptical eye in order to draw insights while rejecting spurious data.

The main lessons: Look at the size and makeup of the sample and how it was selected; beware of attributing much significance to subsamples, most of which are too small to be valid; know what "margin of error" means; and look at how the questions were phrased.

As well roll into the election season, you will hear myriad polls quoted supporting one side or the other. A good rule of thumb is to treat polls the way you should treat horoscopes: "for entertainment purposes only." But if you want to take them seriously, do your homework first.

polls, politics, midtopia

Annan and Hezbollah

Some right-wing enthusiasts have accused the United Nations of being pro-Hezbollah and anti-Israel. Aspects of that criticism have merit: The UN has done little to curb Hezbollah's activities in Lebanon. And who can forget the abduction of three Israeli soldiers in 2000 -- an abduction that may have been aided by bribed Indian peacekeepers, and the investigation of which was flawed?

I think they miss the point. Reining in Hezbollah was outside both the mandate and the capabilities of the lightly-armed UN observers; trying to do so would at a minimum have compromised their neutrality, upon which their presence in Lebanon depended.

As for the 2000 incident, The UN is a self-protective bureaucracy with generally weak institutional oversight. As such there will almost inevitably be corruption, and the UN will never be good at admitting mistakes. But there's no evidence that the United Nations itself assisted or condoned the attack.

That said, sometimes things are clearer than that. And Kofi Annan provided one such moment today.

Sitting beside Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, Annan demanded Hezbollah return two captured Israeli soldiers, whose July 12 abduction touched off the 34-day war, and said Israel must lift its air and sea blockade of Lebanon. ...

"It's a fixed menu. ... It's not an a la carte menu where you choose and pick," he said at the end of the first day of his 11-day Mideast swing that will include stops in Iran and Syria, the main backers of Hezbollah.

The demand that Hezbollah release the soldiers had been missing from much of the discussion leading up to and after the ceasefire. It's good that he said it so clearly, in Lebanon, with the Lebanese prime minister sitting next to him.

His words do, however, illustrate the complexity of the situation. He also called for Israel to end its naval blockade -- a blockade that Israel, reasonably, refuses to call off until the UN force is in place. And he once again reiterate that the UN force will not disarm Hezbollah, placing that responsibility squarely on Lebanon -- which has already indicated it will not do so.

Annan is correct not to want peacekeepers drawn into the conflict by attempting to disarm one side when Lebanon is unwilling to do so. Lebanon, besides having conflicting feelings regarding Hezbollah, faces the practical problem that any attempt at forced disarmament would likely fail, and fail bloodily.

The New York Times had a piece this weekend describing the dilemma. Disarmament is not a tactic; it's the end result of a political and diplomatic process. Unless a force has been thoroughly broken and defeated, it can only be disarmed with its consent -- and such consent only comes when that force comes to believe that it can gain more by laying down its arms. There's an element of hardball to the process -- the negative threat of military action. But barring the application of overwhelming force -- which neither the UN nor Lebanon is able or willing to do -- Hezbollah will not be disarmed at gunpoint.

So we have a ceasefire. We have Lebanon taking responsibility for the south. We have Hezbollah under pressure to keep its weapons out of sight and to release the captured Israelis. We have the parties trying to adjust the political reality so that Hezbollah is forced into a corner where disarmament becomes an appealing option.

On the Israeli side, there's the carrot/stick of a permanent peace and agreed-upon border with Lebanon, which might then stop providing a haven to anti-Israeli elements.

It's not clear what will come out of this situation, a situation so deeply dissatisfying to all involved. But there is reason to hope. And for now, with the guns silent, it's enough.

Annan, UN, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel, politics, midtopia

Iranian brinksmanship

So over the weekend, Iran got frisky.

First, they called attention to the fact that they're building a heavy-water reactor.

Then, they test-fired a submarine-launched anti-shipping missile.

Neither of these are major events in and of themselves. The reactor move isn't helpful, but its far from complete and only a step in the nuclear process. And the missile sounds like more hype than major capacity. Even in the unlikely event that the missile is all it's cracked up to be, there's a big gap between being able to build a nuclear bomb and being able to miniaturize it and make it robust enough to form a reliable missile warhead.

Consider it, instead, one more splash of paint in the target Iran is painting on itself. A target that Israel, for one, appears to be preparing to hit if necessary.

Take that last link with a grain of salt. It's the Washington Times, after all. But they name their sources, and Israel would be stupid not to be developing some kind of contingency plan for dealing with a nuclear Iran. They hit Iraq's Osirek reactor back in 1981; there's no particular reason to think they'll be shy about doing the same to Iran.

Hmmm... maybe that prediction about an imminent nuclear war isn't so nutty after all.

nuclear, Israel, Iran, politics, midtopia

Rumsfeld's brain

Donald Rumsfeld wanted to invade Iraq with 50,000 troops and has steadfastly refused to deploy enough troops to quell the violence there.

So what to make of this?

The presence of several thousand extra U.S. troops in Baghdad in recent weeks showed that sectarian violence can be quelled by force of arms. But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said the gains will be lost unless the Iraqi government reconciles rival religious sects.

"There ... is no question but that you can go in and clear out an area and achieve a reduction in violence, and the test is not that," Rumsfeld told reporters in a joint appearance Friday at the Pentagon with Iraqi Deputy President Adil Al-Mahdi.

"The test is what happens thereafter. And the important thing is for the Iraqi government to achieve success with respect to its reconciliation process," he said. "It's important that they deal with the militia issue."

So let me get this straight. More troops actually does equal more security? And so, as Iraq has spiraled more and more out of control, we've refused to send more troops because.... why? Because what's more important is the reconciliation process, as if that's supposed to take hold while Sunnis and Shiites are killing each other due to an inadequate security presence.

He's right that a reconciliation process is the only way to achieve long-term stability. But he just blithely ignores that short-term stability is needed to get the reconciliation process started.

Further, Rumsfeld is taking credit for the local success of a strategy that he and the administration have fought against, tooth and nail, since the Iraq invasion was nothing but a gleam in their neocon eyes. A strategy that everyone with any experience in peacekeeping was practically screaming at them to adopt.

And now not only does he brag on the success in Baghdad, but he point-blank refuses to draw the larger lesson.

Why does this guy still have his job?

Rumsfeld, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Nuclear war predicted for Sept. 12

You know, it's bad enough that my birthday falls the day after Sept. 11; talk about a buzzkiller.

Now there's this:

Yisrayl Hawkins, well known Bible scholar and author, reports that the Bible predicts the exact date and the location that nuclear war will begin. Hawkins states that the current crisis in the Middle East will go nuclear on September 12, 2006 in the area around the Euphrates River. Calling upon his 50 years of biblical research, Hawkins correlates numerous Bible prophecies with world events to support his claim.

According to Yisrayl Hawkins, the countdown to nuclear war began with the signing of the Oslo accords on the White House lawn on September 13, 1993. He says that the book of Daniel shows that although this is a seven-year agreement, it would take fourteen years to be fully carried out, ending on October 13, 2007. He then cites prophecies in the book of Revelation showing that nuclear war would begin a year, a month and a day prior to the end of the Oslo agreement.

Maybe I'll hold off on painting the house this year.

Update: A pretty funny video report on Mr. Hawkins at World of Wonder.

Yisrayl Hawkins, nuclear war, Armageddon, politics, midtopia