Libby roundup

The Wall Street Journal, New York Post and National Review are calling for Bush to pardon Libby. The chorus is getting loud enough that the WaPo's Al Kamen is holding a "guess the pardon date" contest.

Meanwhile, Harry Reid is demanding that President Bush pledge not to pardon the Scootster, and there's even an online exchange trading Libby pardon futures.

The article also discusses the history and propriety of presidential pardons, much of which we've already covered here.

Meanwhile, attention is already turning to Dick Cheney. The consensus: his influence in the White House will probably remain undiminished.

Cheney, Libby, politics, midtopia

The evolution of religion

As a follow-up of sorts to my genetics of altruism post, The New York Times magazine had a fascinating, thought-provoking piece on the evolutionary advantages of belief.

Turns out that some scientists have been studying religion from an evolutionary perspective, trying to figure out why religion is universal when it is seemingly maladaptive to survival: usually, believing in nonexistent things and expending energy on nonproductive pursuits will make it harder to survive, not easier.

First the science, then my two cents.

The science is split into two camps. There's the "byproduct" school, which says religion is not in itself an evolutionary advantage, but is a byproduct of a complex and imaginative brain that is. Then there's the "adaptionist" school, which argues that religious belief is in fact advantageous by promoting trust and cooperation within a group.

The byproduct folks have some fascinating bits of data to work with. Their main ones are three recognized human traits:

Agent detection: The ability to infer the presence of organisms that intend to harm us. If we see motion out of the corner of our eye, our mind tends to assume it is a potential hostile organism and react accordingly. We assume the motion is guided by a mind rather than assuming benign causes like wind blowing leaves around. This makes evolutionary sense: If we're wrong about it being hostile, we're still alive. If we're wrong about it being benign, we're dead or injured. But it predisposes us to see intelligent agents behind every observed phenomenon.

Causal reasoning: The ability to "impose a narrative" on seemingly unrelated events. I tend to describe this as "pattern detection", the ability to see patterns even where none exists. Again, this is evolutionarily advantageous: it helps us solve puzzles and figure out cause and effect even with scant evidence, and is largely harmless when applied incorrectly. But it, too, predisposes us to see order and causation where there is none.

Theory of mind: This is simply the recognition that other people have their own viewpoint and do not know everything we know; it's the ability to imagine yourself in other people's heads. It lets us anticipate the actions of other people based on our knowledge of their knowledge. The survival advantage is obvious. The link to religion is a little more complex. Experiments show that children do not develop "theory of mind" until they are 4 years old or so. Until then, they believe others -- and especially their parents -- are omniscient. In other words, we are born believing in omniscient, invisible minds, which paves the way for a belief in God.

Then come the adaptationists. They argue that while the byproduct school might help explain some of the biochemistry of belief, belief itself is also favored by evolution. Some of my thoughts on altruism closely reflect adaptationist arguments. Religion can make people feel better by worrying less about death, letting them focus on living and the future. By reinforcing desirable behavior, it helps them attract better mates. It makes groups more cohesive, allowing them to outcompete nonreligious groups. It makes individuals more willing to sacrifice themselves, again increasing the survivability of the group. Such advantages outweigh the evolutionary costs of religion, which is measured in the time and resources devoted to ritual.

Adaptationists also note that this doesn't have to be an either-or thing. All species contain a range of various traits: height, strength, speed, disease resistance, etc. Why should belief be any different? In that view, theists and atheists aren't enemies; they represent a socially healthy mix. "What seems to be an adversarial relationship between theists and atheists within a community is really a division of cognitive labor that keeps social groups as a whole on an even keel," to quote the article's paraphrase of David Sloan Wilson.

Me, I don't see the two schools as necessarily being in conflict. Humans are social creatures by design, and the idea that we're wired to view the world in a certain way makes sense. Further, anything that promotes social cooperation is evolutionarily advantageous. Religion is an effective tool to that end, so it's easy to see why it would be so ubiquitous.

I would add that belief is advantageous for a reason not cited in the article: because it gives us a sense of control. Early humans were surrounded by deadly things they didn't understand. That could be debilitating to a mind imaginative enough to envision all the horrible things that could happen. But if we think we know why lightning strikes or earthquakes happen or people die, then we can develop rituals and practices to control or appease them. If we think we know what the stars are, we can use them to store our hopes and dreams. Belief is just one more tool to help us order our surroundings, giving us a framework that lets us live our lives more successfully by explaining away the unexplainable.

Believers may be offended by this whole discussion, as if God can be reduced to a particular brain structure or random chance. But that's not necessarily the case. Knowing the mechanism by which humans experience God does not prove God doesn't actually exist. To quote Justin Barrett, a prominent member of the byproduct school and a practicing Christian:

"Christian theology teaches that people were crafted by God to be in a loving relationship with him and other people. Why wouldn’t God, then, design us in such a way as to find belief in divinity quite natural?”

This is a variation of "evolution is the tool by which God created humans" argument. And it works just as well. We believe because God gave us the ability to believe when He created us.

Anyway, it's a fascinating article, far more interesting than I can do justice to here. Give it a read before it disappears behind the Times Select wall.

evolution, religion, politics, midtopia

What was he thinking?

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick seems to have some difficulty separating the public's business from his own.

Governor Deval Patrick, who was criticized during the gubernatorial campaign for his involvement with a controversial subprime mortgage lender, called a top official at Citigroup, former US Treasury secretary Robert E. Rubin, two weeks ago to intercede on behalf of the owners of Ameriquest Mortgage as they sought urgent financial assistance from the global financial giant.

Patrick's defense?

In a statement to the Globe, Patrick said he made the Feb. 20 call to Citigroup not in his role as governor but after a personal request to him from a top official at ACC Capital Holdings, the firm that owns Ameriquest Mortgage, which has frequently been accused of predatory lending.

That's funny. As long as he's not making the call "in his role as governor", there's no reason to think Citigroup would feel pressured by his day job. Uh-huh.

It could have been worse. Rubin is pretty high-powered himself, after all, and Patrick didn't pressure him to do a deal: he simply offered himself as a personal reference.

But besides the questionable ethics of vouching for a company known for predatory lending, it was an improper intervention. The governor -- whether acting in that role or not -- should not involve himself in the private dealings of private companies.

It's depressing that that apparently isn't obvious.

Massachusetts, Rubin, Deval Patrick, politics, midtopia

Some general thoughts on Libby

Some perspective in its own post, to separate it from the liveblogged initial post.

PARDON POSSIBILITIES
If Bush pardons Libby, it will be near the end of his administration to minimize the political fallout.

A commenter in the other thread suggested that Libby will become Bush's Marc Rich. Rich, you may recall, was the fugitive financier pardoned by Clinton in his final days.

It's not quite a spot-on comparison, because Libby is no Marc Rich. I'm more sympathetic to pardoning an otherwise straight arrow for an essentially political crime, than I am pardoning a fugitive felon simply because he was a campaign donor.

A more apt comparison is when Bush the Elder pardoned the Iran-Contra participants. And even then, Plamegate is no Iran-Contra.

In a general sense, though, there should be a law against issuing pardons to people connected to the president or his party. Pardons are supposed to be acts of mercy, not political favors for the well-connected.

THE JURY
Was the jury filled with rabid partisan Bush-haters, and the conviction a political hammer? Another commenter claimed that. And perhaps with some justification: the trial took place in Washington D.C., which is about 90 percent Democratic. So one would expect the jury to be mostly Democrats.

But that ignores several factors. The major one is the requirement for unanimity in a verdict, meaning that if there were just one Republican on the jury -- and odds are there was at least one -- they could foil a conviction.

Secondly, Libby's lawyers were involved in jury selection, and they were certainly aware of the political implications and chose accordingly.

So let's take a look at the jury. Here's an overview story, and here's a juror-by-juror profile.

Most D.C. residents are black, but 10 of the 12 jurors were white. Nine were women. This already tells you that the jury was not representative of the area. Most said they were largely apolitical -- which would make them similar to most Americans -- but of course they could have been lying about that.

Then lets go juror by juror:

Juror #1: 30s, female, Comptroller. Studied law in grad school and has a classified government clearance pending.

Juror #2: 30s, CPA. Hs two friends in the FBI.

Juror #3: 40s, Accounting administrator for a senior-services group.

Juror #4: 30s, Hotel convention booker.

Juror #5: Denis Collins. Notes that he has a friend who played over-40 football with Libby.

Juror #6: 50s, Web architect for federal contractor.

Juror #7: 50s, retired math teacher.

Juror #8: 40s, Economist. Israeli-born, PhD from MIT, works with overseas regulators in the telecom industry.

Juror #9: 50s, worked as a secretary for Reagan and Bush the Elder administrations. Two master's degrees, friends in the Park Police, Secret Service and CIA.

Juror #10: 60s, Lawyer for the FTC.

Juror #11: 70s, retired art curator. This was the juror who was dismissed.

Juror #12: 50s, retired postal worker.

Suspected political affiliations aside, that may be the most well-educated jury I've ever seen. And while one could apply some gross stereotypes and guess at political leanings for some of them (art curator and postal worker? Democrats!!), there are several that confound expectations -- like the FTC lawyer, and the woman who worked for Republican administrations.

So I think playing "blame the jury" -- either for being partisan or being stupid -- isn't going to work very well.

Plame, Libby, politics, midtopia

Libby found guilty

Wow.

Lewis Libby has been found guilty on 4 of the 5 counts against him.

He was found guilty of obstruction of justice, perjury and making false statements, while being found not guilty on one count of making false statements.

It will be appealed, of course, but if the verdict stands, he's going to prison.

Count #1, obstruction of justice: guilty, up to 10 years in prison

Count #2, false statements about conservations with Tim Russert: guilty.

Count #3, false statements about conversations with Time: not guilty.

Count #4, perjury related to Count #2: guilty

Count #5, perjury related to (but not limited to) Count #3: guilty

It's a little weird that he was convicted on #5 while being found not guilty on #3, but it wasn't limited to the statements involved in #3.

Total potential jail time: 30 years.

It'll be less than that, most likely. And now the question is: does he have any information that he could trade for a reduced sentence?

I'll post links and updates as soon as they appear. I'm getting most of this info from CNN.

Sentencing set for June 5, though Libby's attorneys indicate they might ask for an extension.

Anyone think Bush will pardon Libby if the conviction is upheld?

Updates: Jurist has a roundup. And here's the Associated Press story.

Update 2: The jurors are talking on CNN right now, and they said they found Russert a very credible witness, and were especially unconvinced that Libby could be "surprised" by the mention of Plame's name in his Russert conversation, when he was told more than nine times prior to that about Plame. Even if he forgot who had told him Plame's name, it struck them as very unlikely that he would have been "surprised" by later mentions.

They also found his "poor memory" defense unpersuasive when there were other people testifying that he was a detail guy and the like.

They said there was a lot of sympathy for Libby on the jury, because they viewed him as a fall guy, and wondered why no other administration officials were being questioned or on trial.

They declined to offer opinions on broader arguments, saying they were focused on the question before them.

They took so long to deliberate because they had to break down the huge amount of evidence and then stack it up against the charges. Simply organizing the information was a big task.

They acquitted him on #3 because it wasn't clear if he was lying or if it was simply a misunderstanding.

Trial was not about whether a leak occurred.

Juror speaking is very impressive, as far as his coolness and level-headedness. Turns out he's Dennis Collins, a former WaPo reporter. That helps explain his ease before a crowd.

Update #3: Time has a piece on Why Libby's Defense Failed, and notes that keeping Cheney and Libby off the stand might have been decisive:

Libby and then Cheney were expected to testify about just how crazy things were, but without notice, Wells informed the court that they would not take the stand. Instead, he offered John Hannah, Libby's former deputy, who described how terrible his boss's memory was. Then, after only three days, the defense rested its case.

Declining to put Libby or Cheney on the stand was a controversial move — and one that the defense would pay for. Often in criminal cases, and especially in those involving perjury, jurors like to hear the defendant explain his actions personally. But Libby would no doubt have been cross-examined harshly, and Cheney might have been embarrassed to explain publicly his role in undermining Wilson's criticisms of the war.

Was it a strategic mistake? Or would putting them on the stand have caused other problems? It's fun to speculate. All we know is that the defense decided that putting them on the stand wasn't in their best interest.

Libby, politics, midtopia

Surge update

In a major test of the Iraqi committment to even-handed pacification, U.S. and Iraqi troops spread through the Shiite slum of Sadr City yesterday, following weeks of negotiations with the neighborhood's mayor.

There was no resistance and no violence.

The operation is significant beyond the fact that its a major Shiite neighborhood. Sadr City is home to 2.5 million of Baghdad's 6 million people. So controlling it means controlling a third of the population. And while the major problem with Sadr City has been its use as a base for Shiite militias rather than internal violence, a credible security presence there will weaken the militias by reducing the need for them -- and thus reducing their credibility -- as well as hindering their ability to use it as a base.

Update: on the other hand: 38 die, 105 hurt in a suicide car bombing in the heart of Baghdad. Coupled with attacks on Shiite pilgrims elsewhere in the city, it was the bloodiest day in more than a week.

sadr city, surge, Iraq, politics, midtopia

Ann Coulter is vile

... And she may finally have crossed a line into territory where not even red-meat Republicans will follow.

Speaking today at the Conservative Political Action Conference, right-wing pundit Ann Coulter said: "I was going to have a few comments on the other Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, but it turns out you have to go into rehab if you use the word 'faggot,' so I — so kind of an impasse, can’t really talk about Edwards." Audience members said “ohhh” and then cheered.

This followed previous comments about Bill Clinton's "latent homosexuality" and Al Gore's status as a "total fag."

She then endorsed Mitt Romney.

Republican candidates -- including Romney -- quickly criticized her comments, as did many conservative bloggers (such as Michelle Malkin, who called Coulter "witless"), although some of the criticism was more about tactics than substance.

And then there are the nutcases who lamented that someone could possibly be censured for uttering such a word, arguing that it highlights the power of the gay agenda. But them aside, it appears that Coulter has just cost herself a significant amount of support. And if it's the first step toward her shuffling off the stage into well-deserved obscurity, more's the better.

She followed up a couple of days later by calling Edwards' campaign manager, David Bonior, a front for Arab terrorists -- apparently a reference to the large Arab-American population in the former Congressman's district.

Meanwhile, no further updates on her voter-fraud case.

Update: Several prominent conservative bloggers are simultaneously posting a request that CPAC never invite Coulter to speak again.

Update 2: Andrew Sullivan has an excellent column on Coulter's performance and her defense of it. The money quotes:

The conflation of effeminacy with weakness, and of gayness with weakness, is what Coulter calculatedly asserted. This was not a joke. It was an attack.

He also had this observation about the CPAC event itself:

Her joke was that the world is so absurd that someone like Isaiah Washington is forced to go into rehab for calling someone a "faggot." She's absolutely right that this is absurd and funny and an example of p.c. insanity. She could have made a joke about that -- a better one, to be sure -- but a joke. But she didn't just do that. She added to the joke a slur: "John Edwards is a faggot." That's why people gasped and then laughed and clapped so heartily. I was in the room, so I felt the atmosphere personally. It was an ugly atmosphere, designed to make any gay man or woman in the room feel marginalized and despised. To put it simply, either conservatism is happy to be associated with that atmosphere, or it isn't. I think the response so far suggests that the conservative elites don't want to go there, but the base has already been there for a very long time. (That's why this affair is so revealing, because it is showing which elites want to pander to bigots, and which do not.)

Well said.

Edwards, Coulter, politics, midtopia

Michele Bachmann in her own words

Michele Bachmann has now completed her retreat from her statement on Iraq.

In an op-ed piece in the Star Tribune, she wrote:

I said that an agreement had already been made to divide Iraq and create a safe haven for terrorists. Rather, I meant that America's adversaries are in agreement that a divided Iraq benefits their objective to expel America from the region, resulting in Iraq being a safe haven for terrorists.

Notice how the meaning of the second sentence does not in any way resemble that of the first.

The rest of the piece boils down to the revelation that "Iran and Al-Qaeda both wish us ill in Iraq." Wow. Really?

Bachmann's alternate reality has inspired satire from Wonkette and Unconfirmed Sources, as well as a real-life political challenger:

A lawyer for FBI whistleblower Jane Turner said Friday that he will run for Congress in 2008 in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, currently represented by freshman GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Bob Hill, of Stillwater, said he will run as a Democrat but described his politics as independent. Hill said he will form a congressional committee on April 1.

Surely that's some sort of record for announcing a challenge to an incumbent. Bachmann's hasn't even been in office two months.

Bachmann, politics, midtopia

Heads roll among Army brass

Yesterday, the uproar over poor conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center claimed the career of a two-star general. Today, it claimed the Secretary of the Army.

Secretary Francis Harvey apparently ran afoul of Defense Secretary Robert Gates because, after firing Maj. Gen. George Weightman, he replaced him with another general with links to the controversy.

I haven't been commenting on this scandal because I haven't had a chance to read the Post's stories. Anyone who has ever been through the military medical system knows what a bureaucratic nightmare it can be. I wanted to make sure the Post wasn't making a big deal out of what, for the military, is routine -- however inexcusable it may be.

But with some corrections underway and a push by President Bush and Gates for a top-to-bottom review, not to mention the nearly unprecedented sacking of two senior officials, it seems clear that the administration is taking this seriously and not liking what it sees. Sad as it is to see our soldiers treated this way at any time, much less in the midst of a war, it's good to see it being addressed forcefully.

On the other hand, this would never have come to light without the investigative work of the Washington Post -- a prime example of why a vigorous and free press are important to the country.

military, politics, midtopia

Social conservatives in action

From opposite ends of the country, two stories that will either make you laugh or simply shake your head.

First, from North Dakota:

North Dakota's House has agreed to repeal the state's anti-cohabitation law without a vote to spare, and Gov. John Hoeven is expected to sign it.

The law, which makes it illegal for a man and woman to live together without being married, has been part of North Dakota's code since statehood. It is listed as a sex crime among the state's criminal laws.

Okay. Sounds simple enough. Another outdated law removed from the books.

Except:

Representatives voted 48-41 on Thursday to repeal the law. It takes a minimum of 48 votes, which is a majority of the House's 94 members, to approve any measure in the state House.

That's right, the measure barely passed. Forty-one legislators voted to keep it a criminal offense.

The mind boggles.

Next we head south to sunny Largo, Fla., where the city found itself having to make a decision about whether to keep its city manager of 14 years. The sole reason? He wants to have a sex-change operation and become a woman.

City commissioners ended one of the most tumultuous weeks in Largo history Tuesday night by moving to fire City Manager Steve Stanton following his disclosure that he will have a sex-change operation.

A total of 480 people packed City Hall for a four-hour meeting during which one activist was arrested after police told her not to hand out fliers.

After listening to about 60 speakers, mostly from Largo, a majority of commissioners said they had lost confidence in Stanton's ability to lead.

That's right, fired for wanting a sex-change operation. It'll be interesting to see if the decision survives an anti-discrimination challenge, although his status as a manager makes him more vulnerable to such things, as the "ability to lead" argument shows.

I love the logic of some of the residents who wanted him fired:

"I don't want that man in office," she said. "I don't think we should be paying him $150,000 a year when he's not been truthful. We have to speak up. Of course, we don't believe in sex changes or lesbianism. They have their rights, but we do, too."

He wasn't "truthful" because he hadn't revealed his gender issue until now. Of course, if he had revealed it, he would have been attacked for "flaunting" his sexuality.

But this one takes the cake:

"If Jesus was here tonight, I can guarantee you he'd want him terminated. Make no mistake about it."

The speaker? Ron Sanders, pastor of Largo's Lighthouse Baptist Church.

Update: Churches from around the Tampa Bay area staged a 350-person rally in support of Stanton. I think they were motivated as much by revulsion at the words of Ron Sanders as anything.

civil liberties, morality, gay rights, politics, midtopia

You call this persecution?

The Supreme Court recently refused to hear a case in which Christians claim they are being discriminated against.

At issue in Skoros v. City of New York was whether the city's public school system is impermissibly promoting Judaism and Islam while conveying a message of disapproval of Christianity. School rules allow the Jewish menorah and the Muslim star and crescent in multireligious holiday displays but not nativity scenes depicting the birth of Jesus.

Sounds pretty bad, right? But wait:

The city says its policy treats all religions consistently by excluding "depictions of deities, religious texts, or scenes of worship such as a Christian nativity scene," says Leonard Koerner, a lawyer for the school district, in his brief to the court. "As the Christian nativity scene explicitly depicts the Christian deity [the baby Jesus] as the center of a scene of worship, it falls on the wrong side of the line."

In other words, Christians are free to display Christian symbols, but not a depiction of Jesus or the Bible. The same restrictions apply to all religions. Ergo, no discrimination.

This exposes the general hollowness of the "war on Christmas" charge. While it is possible to find instances where Christian expression is in fact suppressed while other religious expression is allowed, they are isolated and rare. And they usually arise out of a simple-if-bungled desire to be sensitive to minority religions, inasmuch as the people doing the suppressing are often Christians themselves.

It gets even sillier when activists claim that Christians are "persecuted" in this country. That's just nonsense; in a democracy, it is essentially impossible for a majority to be persecuted. Name a single Christian who has been jailed, tortured or executed simply for being Christian. Name a single Christian who has been prevented from attending the church of their choice.

What *is* happening is that the unquestioned Christian domination of cultural life in America is being questioned, and pushed back in some areas. There is increasingly vocal opposition to Christians using the levers of governmental power to promote their religion, and some longstanding practices are being revised as a result. But that's not persecution. Some of us would say it's a long overdue correction.

The sad thing is that Christians are, in fact, persecuted in other countries, sometimes horribly. By trying to claim such victim status here, Christians do their overseas bretheren a disservice by cheapening the meaning of the word.

I'm sympathetic to the plaintiffs on one score: the district allowing Christmas trees to be a symbol of Christianity. The plaintiffs don't like that because Christmas trees, while associated with Christianity, are not actually Christian symbols. Fair enough. Christians should be able to choose the symbol that represents their faith, as long as it doesn't violate the district policy in other respects. There are plenty of choices: A cross should do the trick, or rosary beads for Catholicism or a communion cup or a fish symbol.

There is another worthwhile question here: As long as the district is allowing religious displays, why restrict the content at all? I can understand banning content that explicitly attacks other religions or threatens nonbelievers with eternal damnation or the like, but if you're going to have a Christmas display alongside the Hannukah display, who cares whether there's a nativity scene in it or not?

But that's a separate issue. Having decided to write standards for such displays, the district's obligation is to make the standard objective and apply it fairly. They appear to have done so. And so the plaintiffs' complaint is without merit.

religion, civil liberties, politics, midtopia

North Korea roundup

Some good news, bad news out of North Korea.

First, the bad news. Despite promising to come clean on its nuclear program, North Korea is denying that it has an uranium-enrichment program.

Now, maybe it doesn't. The intelligence on the matter isn't bulletproof, and we have a pretty bad track record when it comes to assessing nuclear capabilities. But their uranium program is the reason we pulled the plug on the Clinton-era Agreed Framework, and there has been some pretty compelling circumstantial evidence that at the very least they were trying to set up such a program. Given that history, I'm not willing to give the North Koreans the benefit of the doubt; it is up to them to provide enough access that inspectors can satisfy themselves that no such program exists.

The good news is that North Korea met with South Korea today and reaffirmed its committment to dismantle its nuclear program -- all part of a bid for humanitarian aid from the South.

The North Korean language was unusually clear and strong:

"President Kim Yong-nam said the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula was late President Kim Il-sung's last guidance and they would make efforts to turn it into reality," a South Korean official involved in the talks said on Thursday....

"(Unification) Minister Lee Jae-joung said strongly that it was very important to conscientiously implement the initial steps for the dismantlement of the North's nuclear programs by soundly complying with the February 13 agreement," the official told reporters in Pyongyang.

Invoking Kim Il-sung strikes me as a particularly important step, but I'm no Korea expert.

North Korea has to be enjoying the fruits of its agreement: besides meeting with South Korea, it has scheduled talks with both Japan and the United States on normalizing relations. Such positive reinforcement offers both practical advantages and a facesaving way for them to claim benefits from the agreement. Playing nice is a cheap way to encourage compliance -- as long as we continue to insist on a robust inspection scheme to verify the destruction of their program.

The real test comes in the next 50 days or so, when North Korea is supposed to take the first concrete steps and shut down its main reactor. But for now, everyone's saying the right things.

nuclear, North Korea, politics, midtopia

Dems get moderate on Iraq

I might have written this legislation myself:

House Democratic leaders have coalesced around legislation that would require troops to come home from Iraq within six months if that country's leaders fail to meet promises to help reduce violence there, party officials said Thursday.

As I've argued: the surge is Bush's last chance, and if it doesn't show results, it's over.

Equally practically, if somewhat less laudibly, the Dems found a way to have their cake and eat it too on the Murtha "back-door withdrawal" proposal.

The plan would retain a Democratic proposal prohibiting the deployment to Iraq of troops with insufficient rest or training or who already have served there for more than a year. Under the plan, such troops could only be sent to Iraq if
President Bush waives those standards and reports to Congress each time.

So they get to make their point and force Bush to repeatedly waive training standards, but they don't actually tie his hands. They also committed to funding the surge and the rest of Bush's Iraq request.

So combine this with the earlier "anti-surge" resolutions, and you have a fairly clear line: Democrats are giving Bush enough rope either to succeed or hang himself. If the surge fails, the troops will come home and the Dems will ride the issue in the presidential campaign. If it succeeds, Bush will have a minor triumph on his hands.

But the Dems are positioning themselves for both eventualities. Though a successful surge will make their anti-surge resolutions look defeatist, they will be able to point to their funding vote and make two claims: One, that they gave Bush the chance to try the surge, so he doesn't deserve sole credit; and two, that their threat to withdraw funding is what finally made the Iraqis sit up and fly straight. In other words, everyone will rush to embrace the success, with at least a modicum of credibility.

Still, if the surge succeeds, the credit will largely belong to Bush, because while he came to the "we need more troops" realization a couple of years too late, he will have been the one who said "this can still be salvaged" after everyone else had given up.

Stay tuned.

Iraq, politics, midtopia

The case of the missing DVD

Whoops.

The missing DVD dates from March 2, 2004. It contains a video of the last interrogation session of Padilla, then a declared “enemy combatant” under an order from President Bush, while he was being held in military custody at a U.S. Navy brig in Charleston, S.C. But in recent days, in the course of an unusual court hearing about Padilla’s mental condition, a government lawyer disclosed to a surprised courtroom that the Defense Intelligence Agency -- which had custody of the evidence -- was no longer able to locate the DVD.

Those sympathetic to the defense made hay with it, of course. "This is the kind of thing you hear when you’re litigating cases in Egypt or Morocco or Karachi," said John Sifton, a lawyer with Human Rights Watch -- an observation that recalls my recent comparison of the treatment of Padilla and a jailed Egyptian blogger.

The judge seems to think that, legally inexcusable as this is, the DVD isn't particularly relevant to the case. The defense was claiming a pattern of mistreatment, and such a pattern would have shown up on the other taped interrogations. As far as evidence admissable to his actual trial, there is a classified report on the interrogation that describes what went on.

Still, it's unusual. And the timing is pretty interesting. The final interrogation session took place in March 2004. Soon after -- and just before arguments on Padilla's detention were to begin before the Supreme Court -- Padilla finally was given access to lawyers. A year later, hoping to avoid an adverse ruling, the government transferred him back into the regular legal system.

So if there was going to be a session in which they pressed him hard it seems likely it would have been the final one, because they knew the case was about to go before the Supreme Court and they might be forced to give him legal rights.

As I said, it appears to have little bearing on his actual trial. But at minimum it's another example of how we've been quite cavalier with Padilla's rights. Worst case, it's a coverup of actual abuse.

terrorism, civil liberties, Padilla, politics, midtopia

Happy Birthday, Midtopia!

I'm as amazed as any of you, but Midtopia turns one today! Break out the party hats!

It's actually a tiny bit older -- about a week -- but I didn't get Sitemeter installed or get really serious until March 1. The first week was spent tweaking the site and uploading some basic content.

In the past year Midtopia has had about 22,000 visitors, and now averages 2,000 a month. We've been linked to by more than 100 blogs. And the site ads have earned me about $12. ;)

Thanks for making Midtopia part of your day.

politics, midtopia

Hey! Iran! Maybe we should, like, talk

Rather surprising, the administration has reversed itself and agreed to talk to Syria and Iran about the situation in Iraq.

The move was announced by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in testimony on Capitol Hill, after Iraq said it had invited neighboring states, the United States and other nations to a pair of regional conferences.

Okay, it was grudgingly. And they were boxed in by the Iraqi government, which doesn't share Washington's aversion to actual diplomacy and is scrapping for survival. But better late than never.

Rice says the U.S. doesn't want to be subjected to extortion. But it's silly to think Syria or Iran will lift a finger to help if we don't actually talk to them. Yeah, they're going to want something. But it sure doesn't hurt to listen to what it is -- and make a few demands of our own.

As in the past, the administration's knee-jerk reaction to ideas it doesn't like is to stonewall. But unlike in the past, the administration is showing new willingness to reconsider that reaction in the cold light of morning. A willingness to talk brought a deal in North Korea; an acknowledgement that more troops are needed appears to be bringing some success with the surge. We shouldn't get our hopes up too high over the decision to talk to Iran, but it sure can't hurt.

terrorism, Iraq, Iran, politics, midtopia

What goes around....

Boy, this had to be an uncomfortable moment.

Prominent Missouri businessman and Republican financier Sam Fox, accompanied by heavyweight backers, expected smooth sailing in the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday on his way to confirmation as ambassador to Belgium.

He didn't get it.

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., broadsided Fox, criticizing his 2004 donation to the anti-Kerry Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and questioning Fox's credentials for the job.

"You saw fit to put $50,000 on the line to continue the smear, my question to you is: Why?" Kerry said.

Fox's answer wasn't particularly forceful.

Fox, 77, said he couldn't recall who had asked for the contribution and counted it among thousands of contributions he makes yearly. "When I'm asked, I just generally give," Fox said.

Frankly, that's a bit sad.

One can surely understand Kerry's pique. On the other hand, Fox didn't totally deserve the 30-minute grilling: he was a Republican ATM, not a prime mover behind the Swiftboaters. And his confirmation does not appear to be in jeopardy.

But it does show that there is a price to be paid for personal politics.

Kerry, politics, midtopia

The surge might be working

In the first really encouraging sign for the security crackdown in Baghdad, the number of bodies delivered to the Baghdad morgue in February is down by half compared to January.

In addition, today U.S. forces tested the Iraqi government's committment to a nonsectarian crackdown, sweeping into the Shiite slum of Sadr City and seizing several suspected death squad leaders.

The sign of political resolve is a good thing. The success of an increased troop presence, while predictable, is also a good thing. But the next step is the hard one: sustaining both. We appear to be doing the "clear"; what remains to be seen is whether we can manage the "hold."

Let's hope we can.

Iraq, politics, midtopia

Padilla found competent

Well, actually, he was a pretty incompetent terrorist, if that is what he was. But he was found competent to stand trial.

After three and a half days of an intensely argued hearing, Judge Marcia G. Cooke of Federal District Court rejected the defense lawyers’ request that Mr. Padilla be sent to a hospital for psychiatric treatment so that he could be “healed” from what they said was post-traumatic stress disorder caused during his three years and eight months in military detention.

About what I expected. Now the real battle begins: Cooke next must consider the defense motion to dismiss the charges based on what it says is the government's outrageous conduct.

The conduct was indeed outrageous; the only question is whether it was outrageous enough to compel an acquittal.

terrorism, Padilla, civil liberties, politics, midtopia

Technical difficulties

My Internet connection has been down for most of the day, so posting has been impossible. Hopefully I'll get some stuff up later today. A lot going on: Padilla found competent, Kerry grilling a Swiftboater, the U.S. agreeing to attend talks with Iran and Syria, the Baghdad body count down significantly.... A lousy day for technical problems.

politics, midtopia